I still get a very bitter taste in my mouth whenever Americans point the "sponsoring terrorists" finger. We in Britain haven't forgotten NORAID; where was the "government responsibility for actions of extremists", then? Would the UK have been justified in blowing up JFK Airport in response, or turning NY into molten glass?

Over the years my attitudes towards Israel have changed a lot. When I was still a gung-ho, testosterone laden teenager like the Cube dude, I had pretty much the same attitude - "Go Zion, anyone who can take out six nations simultaneously must really rock." Now I've seen and heard so much more from both sides, I just despair. Religious nuts on both sides to whom the word 'compromise' is anathema. A vicious cycle of tit-for-tat, and "we're gonna hurt you more than you hurt us". Remember "an eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind". There had been positive signs - the Road Map, partial withdrawals from occupied territories, Syria pulling out / being pushed out of Lebanon, a softer line in Damascus, and suddenly we've leapt back ten years or so. It's so much easier to destroy than to build.

But the question was, what's going to happen, wasn't it? Right now I think it will escalate. I'm sure Iran (or elements within Iran - it is far from a monolithic state) will become overtly involved, and if they do acquire nuclear weapons, no prizes at all for guessing where it will be aimed. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran had some territorial goals in respect of Iraq falling apart, and Iraq must be seen as part of the overall picture.

We shouldn't overlook the bitterness of the Sunni/Shia split, either, as provoking widespread animosity towards Israel will cover that split in a spurious sense of "Muslim unity". When Arab-Israeli tensions are lessened the islamic schism comes more to the fore again.

As to the question will there be another war - I believe it's started, but no-one's admitted it yet. Eventually the world's policeman will step in and control more of the Middle East (well, occupy, if not control). Because there is an elephant in the room -- OIL. It's the one thing people don't want to address. It's not a case of the impact Mid-east conflict has on oil prices, but what the impact of oil is on the politics. The one thing mainstream media is keeping pretty quiet about is peak oil - we have probably reached it already. The rest is a long slow decline in production, inevitably prices will go up, and there is a scrabble to control the remnants. The more wars, terror threats, "market jitters" etc there are to "explain" the ever rising prices, the less repsonsibility the big consumers have to take in the face of their oil-hungry voters, the longer the denial can continue. Stopping this regional conflagration will not prevent the $130 barrel, it would just remove one excuse for it.

For all the local animosities, it still looks like a fight of the glove-puppets with bigger players calling the shots.

So, in short: Israel will be at war with Palestine, Lebanon and Syria. Iraq will collapse, Iran will make a landgrab (they're suddenly interested in the old Persian empire again, wonder why???), Jordan and Saudi will sit on the fence, Egypt will face both ways but get very repressive internally. General Arab uprising. The West will intervene about the same time as Russia. Winner gets the oilfields, and everyone else will just have to live with it. Israel will probably survive.

Unless some serious diplomacy kicks in during the next few days

Meanwhile China will nab Taiwan, flatten North Korea and invade Japan.

(And if you're in denial yourself about the oil running low, do a search on "Hibbert's Peak" and recent Saudi production figures).