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  1. #1
    Second-hand chariot salesman Senior Member macsen rufus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    I still get a very bitter taste in my mouth whenever Americans point the "sponsoring terrorists" finger. We in Britain haven't forgotten NORAID; where was the "government responsibility for actions of extremists", then? Would the UK have been justified in blowing up JFK Airport in response, or turning NY into molten glass?

    Over the years my attitudes towards Israel have changed a lot. When I was still a gung-ho, testosterone laden teenager like the Cube dude, I had pretty much the same attitude - "Go Zion, anyone who can take out six nations simultaneously must really rock." Now I've seen and heard so much more from both sides, I just despair. Religious nuts on both sides to whom the word 'compromise' is anathema. A vicious cycle of tit-for-tat, and "we're gonna hurt you more than you hurt us". Remember "an eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind". There had been positive signs - the Road Map, partial withdrawals from occupied territories, Syria pulling out / being pushed out of Lebanon, a softer line in Damascus, and suddenly we've leapt back ten years or so. It's so much easier to destroy than to build.

    But the question was, what's going to happen, wasn't it? Right now I think it will escalate. I'm sure Iran (or elements within Iran - it is far from a monolithic state) will become overtly involved, and if they do acquire nuclear weapons, no prizes at all for guessing where it will be aimed. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran had some territorial goals in respect of Iraq falling apart, and Iraq must be seen as part of the overall picture.

    We shouldn't overlook the bitterness of the Sunni/Shia split, either, as provoking widespread animosity towards Israel will cover that split in a spurious sense of "Muslim unity". When Arab-Israeli tensions are lessened the islamic schism comes more to the fore again.

    As to the question will there be another war - I believe it's started, but no-one's admitted it yet. Eventually the world's policeman will step in and control more of the Middle East (well, occupy, if not control). Because there is an elephant in the room -- OIL. It's the one thing people don't want to address. It's not a case of the impact Mid-east conflict has on oil prices, but what the impact of oil is on the politics. The one thing mainstream media is keeping pretty quiet about is peak oil - we have probably reached it already. The rest is a long slow decline in production, inevitably prices will go up, and there is a scrabble to control the remnants. The more wars, terror threats, "market jitters" etc there are to "explain" the ever rising prices, the less repsonsibility the big consumers have to take in the face of their oil-hungry voters, the longer the denial can continue. Stopping this regional conflagration will not prevent the $130 barrel, it would just remove one excuse for it.

    For all the local animosities, it still looks like a fight of the glove-puppets with bigger players calling the shots.

    So, in short: Israel will be at war with Palestine, Lebanon and Syria. Iraq will collapse, Iran will make a landgrab (they're suddenly interested in the old Persian empire again, wonder why???), Jordan and Saudi will sit on the fence, Egypt will face both ways but get very repressive internally. General Arab uprising. The West will intervene about the same time as Russia. Winner gets the oilfields, and everyone else will just have to live with it. Israel will probably survive.

    Unless some serious diplomacy kicks in during the next few days

    Meanwhile China will nab Taiwan, flatten North Korea and invade Japan.

    (And if you're in denial yourself about the oil running low, do a search on "Hibbert's Peak" and recent Saudi production figures).
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  2. #2
    RIP Tosa, my trolling end now Senior Member Devastatin Dave's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    A big ice cream and pizza party. [come on dave - edited out]. Everyone will be happy, holding hands, and praising the UN for brokering a deal that makes eveyone happy.
    Last edited by solypsist; 07-14-2006 at 15:19.
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  3. #3
    karoshi Senior Member solypsist's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    Am I the only one who finds it ironic that John Bolton said that a resolution demanding that prisoners be freed and aggression stopped would highten tensions rather than ease them? There's something stupid in his logic.

  4. #4
    Bopa Member Incongruous's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    The kidnapping of soldiers does not condone the bombing of civilian areas.
    All soldiers should know that, and the condoning of it is nothing but cowardly.

    Do you disagree?

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  5. #5

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    how do you think things will unfold?

    The movement of things will be downhill all the way , apart from oil prices .

  6. #6

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    I think in all ways Israel is.. Damned!
    "Cry, the beloved country, for the unborn child that is the inheritor of our fear. Let him not love the earth too deeply. Let him not laugh too gladly when the water runs through his fingers, nor stand too silent when the setting sun makes red the veld with fire. Let him not be moved when the birds of his land are singing, nor give too much of his heart to a mountain or a valley. For fear will rob him of all if he gives too much."

    Cry, the Beloved Country by Alan Paton.

  7. #7

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    I actually kind of wish they'd just have an all-out war. Will thousands, maybe millions get killed? Yeah, but with the way things have been going for 60 years, there doesn't seem to be any end in sight. Perhaps letting them just fight to the fullest we can settle the whole thing at once.

  8. #8
    Master of the Horse Senior Member Pindar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    Quote Originally Posted by Me
    2. Iran is a patron and has some level of control over Hamas.

    4. Iran is a patron and supporter of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

    6. North Korea is one of Iran's few friends and allies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Idaho
    2. Is completely wrong

    4. Is completely wrong

    6. Is completely wrong

    Hello,

    I'm not the source of the article. You may be right, but there does seem to be some rationale for the claims. I'll note a few

    Regarding 2) "The State Department's office of counter-terrorism in its report on international terrorism for the year 1993 clearly established that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad received funding from Iran. In April 1993, Fathi Shqaqi told a New York newspaper that his organization has received Iranian funds since 1987."

    The above Department is the Israeli State Department Office of Counter-Terrorism.

    "So far the Islamic Jihad-Iranian connection has been explained. The political affinity which was established between Iran and Hamas in late 1991 was followed by a series of practical steps. In October 1992 the Iranian Foreign Minister invited a Hamas delegation to Iran under the leadership of Dr. Musa Abu Marzuk, who held meetings with Khomeini and Foreign Minister Velayeti. Iran reportedly pledged to support Hamas with a subsidy of $30 million a year and also reportedly agreed to place 3,000 Hamas fighters in training camps in Iran, Lebanon and Sudan. It also promised to help Hamas set up a radio station. Hizbullah was said to have agreed to help Hamas to mount operations against Israel, including joint attacks. "

    This is taken from an Abstract of a lecture delivered in a colloquium on "Iran: Foreign Policies & Domestic Constraints", held at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern & African Studies at Tel Aviv University on 3 April 1995. The piece seems to suggests the part of the rationale for Iran-Hamas contacts was a power play by Tehran to undermine PLO/Fatah control and make its rival beholden to Iran financially.

    Regarding 4) This is the most controversial claim as the ideological hostility between the Taliban and Tehran seems clear. I'm not sure what the author based the claim on. Even so, Pakistan based journalists such as Hamid Mir have reported:

    "Very few people know that Al Qaeda was actually in contact with the Iranians even before September 11. It was March 1997 that I first interviewed Osama bin Laden in eastern Afghanistan for Daily Pakistan. In that interview bin Laden proposed an alliance between the Taliban and Iran because of their anti-US stance.
    That proposal was a surprise to me because the Taliban were against Iran at the time and that was the main reason for the US State Department's overt and Pakistan's covert support to them.

    After the interview I talked to some other Al Qaeda operatives present in the hideout. One of them told me, "We want a broad-based alliance against the US and that's why we are in touch with the Iranians since many years."


    These are two articles by Mir that discuss the interaction between Iran, Al Qaeda and the Taliban:http://in.rediff.com/cms/print.jsp?d...ul/16spec1.htm

    http://www.rediff.com/news/2004/jul/19spec2.htm



    Regarding 6) I'm surprised this would be challenged. This idea seems a fairly common refrain particularly given N. Korea's poor economy, its arms sales and Iran's interest. For example: an interview with Charles L. (Jack) Pritchard President, Korea Economic Institute

    "New York, N.Y.: The Bush administration has been rather halfheartedly trying to draw North Korea-Iran and North Korea-al Qaeda links. What are the real relationships there?
    Charles L. (Jack) Pritchard: "The North Korea - Iran connection exists with regard to missile sales and technology support."

    Bild newspaper said, citing a report from the German secret services.

    "Iran has bought 18 BM-25 missiles from North Korea which the Islamic Republic wants to transform to extend their range, the German press reported Dec. 16.
    ”Iran has bought 18 disassembled BM-25 missiles from North Korea with a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles),”


    From an AP April 26, 06 report:

    "Iran Gets First North Korean-Made Missiles
    JERUSALEM - Iran has received its first batch of North Korean-made surface-to-surface missiles that put European countries within firing range, Israel's military intelligence chief said in an interview published Thursday.
    The BM-25 missiles have a range of 1,550 miles and are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the Haaretz daily reported."


    The above may all be wrong, but a complete dismissal seems unwarranted.
    Last edited by Pindar; 07-14-2006 at 22:27.

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  9. #9
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    How much of this can we trust and how much is it just spin and lies propergated by the Project for a New American Century. We are dealing with one of the most deceitful, violent and manipulative US governments on record.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  10. #10
    stalin
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    how did I end up here?
    Last edited by stalin; 07-18-2006 at 01:45.

  11. #11

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things


    I am rather amused....

    Well thats OK then . perhaps you won't jump to assumptions then Red , as there is no twisting in the wind no matter how much you try and play that tune , I have made my position clear throughout all the topics on this recent escalation in the mid-east .

    will give you a clue little tribese the use of extra punction at the end of a sentence could be an indication of something other then sincere prose....

    Would that be an assumption then ?

    So I repeat ,Now if you want to do something about it rather that getting a "little testy" then write to your government .

  12. #12
    MTR: AOA project ###### (temp) Member kataphraktoi's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    Israel isn't try to target civilians per se....

    In a disorganised society like Lebanon and Gaza, you can't expect black and white delineations of military and civilian infrastructures.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't collateral damage in any sense to get militants. But its just not that easy.

    What would you in Olmert's position? This is not an antagonistic question, I'M actually curious as to what people would do as the Israeli PM.
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  13. #13

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    Quote Originally Posted by kataphraktoi
    Israel isn't try to target civilians per se....

    In a disorganised society like Lebanon and Gaza, you can't expect black and white delineations of military and civilian infrastructures.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't collateral damage in any sense to get militants. But its just not that easy.
    But they're also blockading and choking everything: Air, land and sea. They're collectively hurting everyone so the populace will hate the militants.

    Quiet dread blankets Beirut

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quiet dread blankets Beirut
    Tourists flee as restaurants and shops close
    Israeli air raids target southern neighbourhoods
    Jul. 15, 2006.
    ANDREW MILLS
    SPECIAL TO THE STAR

    BEIRUT—Rapidly, Israel is cutting Lebanon off from the rest of the world.

    Israeli warplanes yesterday bombarded the major crossroads, bridges and tunnels that link this tiny country together. Israeli warships blockaded Lebanon's ports. The airport remains closed indefinitely. A major strike on mountain bridges rendered the main route through the Lebanon range to Syria impassable.

    At the centre of what is quickly becoming an island sits Beirut, a city that has been besieged so many times before.

    Yesterday evening, shortly after seven, screams punctuated the tension of West Beirut as yet another loud rumble emanated from the southern suburbs followed by some smaller explosions and a tall plume of black smoke.

    Another bridge. Gone.

    In Beirut, the Israeli air strikes have focused entirely on the Dahiyah, the band of suburbs that form the city's southern boundary. There, the apartment buildings and slums are home to the majority of Beirut's Shiite supporters of the militant group Hezbollah.

    It is in the Dahiyah, Arabic for suburb, where Hezbollah's offices and radio station came under Israeli fire yesterday.

    The streets are strewn with chunks of concrete and broken glass. Its residents have sustained the brunt of this city's casualties in the last two days.

    While thousands of families have started the flee Dahiyah for safer areas of the city, some are resolute in their support for Hezbollah.

    "We will stay here until our last breath under the banner of Hezbollah against the barbarians and terrorists of Israel and the United States," Hashem Hashem, a 52-year-old employee of the state-run Lebanese University, told Reuters.

    But a sense of dread for what might lie ahead has set in amongst the sectarian groups that call Beirut home.

    The fear here is that the recent Israeli offensive may trigger another Lebanese civil war. Inter-communal relations have been growing steadily worse since last year's assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. Things haven't been this tense since 1975.

    Yesterday, most of the shops and restaurants in West Beirut had pulled down their shutters and were closed by early evening. As the sun set, people streamed into one of the few grocery stores that remained open in West Beirut, searching for bread. But, like much of the city, the shop had run out of bread hours earlier.

    Down at the Mediterranean seafront, the Corniche was the domain of only a few hearty power walkers and the occasional fisherman. It is normally choked with residents and tourists at this time of year.

    At one end of the Corniche, the swish Phoenicia Intercontinental Hotel suddenly had rooms available. Three days earlier, the hotel was filled to capacity with hundreds of tourists, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. They flood into Beirut every year at this time, seeking relief from the summer heat.

    But in the last two days, the bombings reached a critical point and most of those tourists have been packing their cars and heading for the Syrian border, destroying the Lebanese tourist season.

    "Last night, the bombing was too much. We couldn't handle it. We had to leave," said Leila Hamade, 46, who had been holidaying with her family from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

    "I'm scared that it's a closed space. You feel that you're surrounded. From the sea. From the air. Everywhere. There is no escape," she said.

    But yesterday what is usually a two-hour drive became hours longer as Israeli warplanes had taken out the bridges on the main Damascus highway earlier in the day, closing that route altogether.

    And so the exodus of tourists fanned out into the Lebanese countryside, jamming the back roads that climb into the Lebanon mountain range with SUVs packed with suitcases, mountain bikes and children.

    At the border, Lebanese traffic police struggled to organize thousands of cars into orderly lines, where they waited for hours to pass the checkpoint.

    In addition to the fleeing tourists, there was also a handful of anxious Lebanese heading for safer ground in Syria.

    "We're going to the suburbs of Damascus," a Lebanese woman said from the front seat of a Mercedes, packed with her three children.

    "We're going to drop the children with friends and then go back (to Beirut). Last night, they couldn't sleep so they got really scared. They can't take it any more."

    Some rode buses or in trucks, while others paid taxi drivers exorbitant prices for the trip to Damascus, only to find that their driver was only willing to take them as far as the Lebanese side of the border. They had to carry their luggage across the kilometre or so of no-man's-land that lies between the two borders.

    "I'm still rattled. A bundle of nerves. I've never seen anything like this before," said Mohit Balani, 32, who was trying to get home to Dubai.

    Back in Beirut, the power failed late last night and the city plunged into darkness.

    In West Beirut, a group of men in their twenties quietly gathered around an old Mercedes, listening to Lebanon's beloved singer Fairouz playing on the tape deck.

    Fairouz became a symbol of resilience and courage for many Beirutis during the country's 1975-1990 civil war, which pitched sectarian group against sectarian group in a series of clashes that killed more than 100,000 people. Beirut was the notorious venue for multiple massacres, a string of kidnappings and the first set of suicide bombers.

    Fairouz never left the city amid the fighting and sang of hope that peace would one day return. This weekend, she was to have performed at a summer music festival. Tickets sold out weeks ago. It was to be a highlight of the summer.

    But like just about everything here, the performance and the festival have been cancelled indefinitely.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    They'll be fine.
    Yes panzer , just like last time when after wasting their lives and wrecking their economy they have to withdraw again without achieving their aims .

  15. #15
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    Quote Originally Posted by Tribesman
    They'll be fine.
    Yes panzer , just like last time when after wasting their lives and wrecking their economy they have to withdraw again without achieving their aims .
    You are presupposing they have any aims. I think Israel just seems to act first, and let other people think later.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  16. #16

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    Quote Originally Posted by Quietus
    But they're also blockading and choking everything: Air, land and sea. They're collectively hurting everyone so the populace will hate the militants.
    I'm afraid it's not that straightforward, my friend. They're collectively hurting everyone so the populace will hate the ones doing the hurting.
    This is not doing Hesbollah a disfavor as far as the popular support is concerned, on the contrary...
    Therapy helps, but screaming obscenities is cheaper.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Israel and the movement of things

    Middle East Cup 2006

    Israel: 200 points scored (181 civilians).
    Hezbollah: 24 points scored (16 civilians).
    Lebanon: 0 point


    Quote Originally Posted by Blodrast
    I'm afraid it's not that straightforward, my friend. They're collectively hurting everyone so the populace will hate the ones doing the hurting.
    This is not doing Hesbollah a disfavor as far as the popular support is concerned, on the contrary...
    I was just reiterating Israel's position. Of course, I agree with you. They will both hate the militia and Israel.

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