Ground War in Lebanon

[Divinus Arma]

Israel will Invade Southern Lebanon: Self-defense against a growing terrorist threat? Or is Israel pursuing unseen ambitions? Both?

Times Online July 21, 2006
Israel calls up reservists for push into Lebanon
By Times Online and Nicholas Blanford in Tyre, Lebanon

Israel called up five battalions of army reservists today and dropped leaflets across southern Lebanon warning civilians to leave towns and villages and head north towards Beirut as it prepared for a major ground offensive against Hezbollah positions.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...280007,00.html

Lebanese Army will Stand with Hizballah: Does this make them a state sponsor of terror? Or are they protecting their sovereignty from a foreign invasion? Both?

Jul. 20, 2006 17:23
Lebanese Army may join forces with Hizbullah
By JPOST.COM STAFF

The Lebanese Minister of Defense warned Israel Thursday that if IDF ground forces are sent into southern Lebanon, Lebanese troops will fight along with the Hizbullah against Israel.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

So far, no word on potential expansion into Syria and Iran. However, this is highly calculated:

Iran's Destabilization of the Middle East
July 21st, 2006

The current conflict being fought on Lebanese soil caused the nation of Iran to achieve its immediate goal of diverting world attention away from its non-compliance on the nuclear issue. It successfully prevented condemnation from international leaders meeting at the G8 summit in regard to its continued uranium enrichment program. It also temporarily distracted world powers from focusing their attention on punishing Iran with sanctions in the UN Security Council.

http://www.americanthinker.com/artic...rticle_id=5687

By Peter Brookes
Iran: Overplaying Its Hand?
July 20, 2006 11:42 AM EST
(Editorial)

While the world focuses on the smoldering conflict in the Middle East, the war’s instigator -- and puppeteer -- Iran must be pretty darn pleased with itself. While Iranian-backed Hezbollah jolts Israeli cities with rockets and Israeli forces ferret out terrorist militants across Lebanon, Iran has suffered nary a nick, verbally or otherwise.

Moreover, Tehran was skillfully able to divert attention from its nuclear (weapons) program, keeping its atomic aspirations out of the limelight at the G-8 summit last weekend in St. Petersburg, Russia.

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/16299.html

It seems that Iran has met with huge success with their plan to use Hizballah in provoking a war between Lebanon and Israel to distract the rest of the world from its nuclear ambitions.

I suspect that Israel is well aware of this and is making plans for a regional conflict, starting with strategic air assaults against Iran's know nuclear facilities, as well as the infrastructures of both Iran and Syria in a pre-emptive tactic to stall military response.

I highly suspect that this will grow much worse.

[yesdachi]

Lebanon better be getting a heck of a kickback from Iran for doing their dirty work and bringing so much destruction to their country.

I think Israel might gain some popularity, at least from the “west”, from this. I am noticing more people offering verbal support for Israel lately, I think as long as it is not our military being used Americans like to see terrorists getting attacked and care little about the collateral damage and although the mainstream media is crying about an imbalance in casualties I think most people are seeing the fact that less Israelis are dying than their enemies is a good thing.

On a cautionary note to Israel, I think they need to be alert as their military has not had a full blown “ground” operation is some time and as the US has found any prolonged action is not going to make them very popular with anyone.

[macsen rufus]

It seems that Iran has met with huge success with their plan to use Hizballah in provoking a war between Lebanon and Israel to distract the rest of the world from its nuclear ambitions.

Well, hardly -- EVERYONE is talking about Iran's nuclear programme in the context of events in Lebanon. Not exactly a distraction, is it?

I'm verging more towards Syria than Iran as the 'behind-the-scenes' culprits, after seeing some other threads highlighting how Hisballah and Tehran aren't as close as they used to be. Syria has treated Lebanon as its backyard for years, and has the recent humiliation to live down. What better way than provoke an Israeli invasion so they can "rescue" the Lebanese all over again?

Iran, through having helped found Hisballah, might well be the "obvious" culprit, but it is also the West's preferred culprit, as it would give just one more excuse to have a go.

Also, that quote above saying that Lebanese forces will fight "alongside" Hisballah looks highly suspect, as in agenda-driven. BBC sources show Lebanese govt asking BOTH Hisballah and Israel to ceasefire, and maybe meeting any Israeli invasion in battle, but NOT necessarily alongside Hisballah. I think there's more interpolation than quote at Jpost.

I'm surprised that Lebanese forces haven't already been mobilised against Israeli attacks. At the least you'd expect some AA cover for their civilian population?? On the other hand, I also suspect Hisballah are better armed than the Lebanese govt anyway. Even so, a sovereign nation defending its borders hardly qualifies as state sponsored terrorism, even if terrorists are also fighting the same invasion. Your enemy's enemy isn't necessarily your friend.

I highly suspect that this will grow much worse.

... on that you have my 100% agreement.

[Blodrast]

Question: pardon my ignorance, but why exactly does it make sense for Israel to push for a major ground offensive against Hesbollah ? Is there any reason to believe that Hesbollah will meet them head-on, like medieval battles ? Seems to me that only a guerilla war has been fought till now, with at most small-scale local confrontations, rather than an all-out clashing of large number of troops...

So, again, I ask, why exactly does it make sense for Israel to change the way it's been running the show so far ?

[Divinus Arma]

The aim of Israel in pursuing a ground operation in Southern Lebanon is such:

By deeply penetrating southern Lebanon and occupying the territory, Israel creates a buffer zone which lengthens the distance that Hizballah rockets must travel in order to successfully strike targets. After all, if Hizballah cannot operate in the Southern portion, it will be forced to operate from entral and northern areas of Lebanon. There is further benefit to this because the population of central and northern Lebanon is less sympathetic to Hizballah.

The difficulty comes in the actual occupation, wherein an insurgency akin to Iraq is inevitable. Despite this unpalatable situation, Israel would rather its soldiers face danger than its civilians. Israel can sustain an indefinite occupation while sustaining occupation casulaties with little disruption to its economy. This is politically undesirable, but something that Israeli politicians currently view as a necessity.

Of course, Israel can further gain if the people and government of Lebanon fail to support Hizballah. This is impossible if Hizballah operates from its southern stronghold, but far more likely in Central and Northern Lebanon. Christian elements will not be thrilled to see Shiite Muslims launching rockets from their neighborhoods.

[Tribesman]

Question: pardon my ignorance, but why exactly does it make sense for Israel to push for a major ground offensive against Hesbollah ?
It makes sense in so far as the air offensive ain't doing nothing really .
The Isrealis will push as far as the river , which will stop the attacks on Haifa but not on the northern towns , then they will sit there for a few years killing and getting killed , then they will withdraw and start all over again at square one .
But hey , they did say they wanted to turn the clock back 20 years .

[spmetla]

One of the purporses is to stop allowing southern lebanon to be a rocket launch zone for Hezbollah. If Israel occupies fifteen or so miles of southern Lebanon then for the most part Hezbollah won't be able to fire rockets into Israel with the relative ease they've enjoyed so far.

I don't think the Lebanese army will engage the IDF unless they advance as far north as Beirut which is definatately not needed.

[Tribesman]

. Israel can sustain an indefinite occupation while sustaining occupation casulaties with little disruption to its economy.
No Divinus , even mobilisation of its forces gives a big hit to the Israeli economy ,(look at the run up to the war with Egypt) maintianing the troop levels and the extra cost of operations and occupation give a really big hit to the economy .

[Blodrast]

Cool, okay, thanks for the explanations.

It makes sense in so far as the air offensive ain't doing nothing really.

I guess I was wondering about this, too, i.e., why the strategy they've been using so far isn't good enough anymore (since, obviously, they have been trying to prevent Hesbollah from launching rockets at Israeli targets until now as well).

I see the logic behind them preferring their soldiers to take the hits rather than their civilians, but it seems to me like an actual occupation, efficient (i.e., dense) enough to prevent more launchings, would be _really_ expensive...
I see them being harrassed by tiny mobile Hesbollah groups all the time - again, guerilla all the way, in which case the Israeli army will more or less sit there and take casualties... sure, this will certainly reduce missile launchings, but it doesn't sound that great of a solution to me, since the costs might even be higher...

Moreover, how long does it make sense to occupy the territory ? Indefinitely ? Not feasible. The Hesbollah aren't just gonna go away, so what's gonna be different when the Israeli pull back ? Isn't it all just gonna start all over again, from square one ?

[Divinus Arma]

lets not forget that israel occupied southern leb for almost two decades.

[Beirut]

lets not forget that israel occupied southern leb for almost two decades.

I'm sure the Lebanese haven't forgotten.

Everyone out of Lebanon! Except the Lebanese!

[LeftEyeNine]

Why do everyone in the Middle East help Bush? Who said that he is hated?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Here's something to consider, if Iran starts flexing its muscles the first thing the IDF will do is attack it Nuclear sites.

Looks like Iran's "master plan" will backfire. As to the Lebonesse army fighting alongside Hezbollah, well when terrorists are fighting a hostile force on their own turf they usually get re-labled.

Welcome to the new Arab-Isreali war people, stay back and keep your heads down.

Lets just hope it doesn't turn into WW III. (Or WW V, depending on how you look at it )

[Crazed Rabbit]

Question: pardon my ignorance, but why exactly does it make sense for Israel to push for a major ground offensive against Hesbollah ? Is there any reason to believe that Hesbollah will meet them head-on, like medieval battles ? Seems to me that only a guerilla war has been fought till now, with at most small-scale local confrontations, rather than an all-out clashing of large number of troops...

So, again, I ask, why exactly does it make sense for Israel to change the way it's been running the show so far ?

As I understand it, along with the points of others about a buffer zone, Israel's air force has not succeded in destroying Hezbullah, who have built a network of tunnels that is withstanding the bombardment, necessitating ground forces.

Crazed Rabbit

[Tribesman]

Here's something to consider, if Iran starts flexing its muscles the first thing the IDF will do is attack it Nuclear sites.
Not unless they have aquired an additional air-air refueling capability , which just leaves the Red Sea based submarine with its cruise missiles .
The limited number of missiles that can be launched and disbursed nature of the target sites means that option is a bit of a waste of time , apart from making the conflict a lot bigger .
I suppose the US could help them with the in flight refueling but that would mean the loss total of Iraq and probably the mid-east headquarters in Qatar for good measure .
Perhaps they should just start a regionwide war and say goodbye to all the oil .

[The Black Ship]

This whole "Lebanese army will stand with Hezbollah" mantra is so specious. Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government, they even hold cabinet positions. Hezbollah is the occupying force in Southern Lebanon. If a political party of a country, with civil authority, with military authority over a large swathe of territory attacks a neighbouring country...how is it people can say that Lebanon didn't attack Israel?

Now, if Lebanon wants to declare Hezbollah "outside the law", not "part of us", then maybe they can show themselves truly innocent victims of naked aggression.

If Lebanon wants their sovereignty back, wants to show they had not part in attacking Israel they need to "stand against Hezbollah". It would be the shot heard round the world.

[kataphraktoi]

Are the lives of two Israeli soldiers worth that of civilian casualties? Hizbollah seems to think so, just give the soldiers back. Israel did not want to invade Lebanon in the first place. But to save face and look tough, they invaded Israel.

WhAt amazes me is that minority party like Hizbollah can start a war between two countries.

[scotchedpommes]

The Lebanese Defence Minister's statement is no surprise. If you consider that
Israel bombed army installations, killing soldiers, the desire to take action is
understandable. I don't doubt, however, that some believe he would be bound
to make such a announcement in any case.

Israel did not want to invade Lebanon in the first place.

Naturally I cannot state their intentions, but I would ask: if an invasion was not
intended, why would they not send in covert teams of commandos, [I am aware
that commandos have been in Lebanon since Wednesday] or even the agents of
their infamous intelligence service?

[Red Peasant]

Naturally I cannot state their intentions, but I would ask: if an invasion was not
intended, why would they not send in covert teams of commandos, [I am aware
that commandos have been in Lebanon since Wednesday] or even the agents of
their infamous intelligence service?

You are patently wrong. Israel has only just called up its reservists. If an invasion was planned then the Israelis would have performed this call-up weeks if not months ago and they would have been in Lebanon for the last two weeks at least.

[cunobelinus]

Wouldnt the hole of the middle east be solved of so many problems is they just wipe out the israel because they cause so many problems

[Major Robert Dump]

You guys crack me up.

Here we have Lebanon, a country who hates Syria and stood up against their occupation after a respected Lebanese mouthpiece for the people was assassinated, a mideast
country that is arguably one of the more favorable towards the west, a country who has a crap military that has its hands full already and isn't exactly in a situation to "weed out hezbollah" , a country that is a great candidate to bring over to our side, a country full of chrisitans

and now its going to be blown to sheet, and any civilians killed will
be brushed aside as "oh well we told them to leave"

I'm trying to figure out when the religious neocons and Isreal will realize that a little -- JUST A FRICKIN LITTLE -- self restraint can go miles in winning people to your side, rather than thrashing a country and then wondering why its civilians hate you

So how would you like it if, in the middle of July, you had no fresh water or air conditioning, couldnt go to work so you could pay your bills, and had to pull up stakes and relocate willy nilly because of something being done by someone you didn't even vote for.

so I hope, just for the sake of optimism, that Isreal takes its finger off the trigger and tries to work with Lebanon so we just might avoid a WWIII. I hope. I doubt it, though, kind of like when Isreal would do things like blow up palestenian infrastructure and government offices, yet demand they do more to fight the terrorists. Kind of hard to do when all your computers and file cabinets just got blown up and half your population is out of water, eh?

I'm starting to sound like Pat Buchanan

[Banquo's Ghost]

Now, now, MRD, you've been warned before for talking sense in the Backroom...

[Leet Eriksson]

words..

Sorry i had to cut the quote short, but really awesome post.

Now i wonder, why did isreal not take the intiative and coordinated with lebanon to take out hizbolla instead of taking the gung-ho method?

[Divinus Arma]

Before everybody starts getting on their knees for MRD, as reasonable as his post may appear, lets get to the root here.

MRD, you pretty much provided no alternative. I'm delighted to hear you rant. You're funny and usually logical too.

But analyze this situation a bit below the surface and provide some alternatives. A call for "self restraint" is hardly adequate.

If you want to place the reader in the shoes of the Lebanese, then play fair and jump in the shoes of Israel.

How would you feel if Mexicans guerillas snuck across our border, murdered eight national guard troops, kidnapped two others, and then demanded the release of thousands of illegal immigrant violent MS-13 gangbanger felons as ransom? Would we declare war on Mexico? Of course not. But what if the northern half of Mexico were MS-13 and they regularly launched frickin' rockets into San Diego?

It is extremely discouraging that Israel has to act unilaterally in its own defense because the weak lebanese government cannot control the psychotic murdering half of its country. The Lebanese government should be working with Israel to clean out the Hizbullah rodents.

[orangat]

Before everybody starts getting on their knees for MRD, as reasonable as his post may appear, lets get to the root here.

MRD, you pretty much provided no alternative. I'm delighted to hear you rant. You're funny and usually logical too.

But analyze this situation a bit below the surface and provide some alternatives. A call for "self restraint" is hardly adequate.

If you want to place the reader in the shoes of the Lebanese, then play fair and jump in the shoes of Israel.

How would you feel if Mexicans guerillas snuck across our border, murdered eight national guard troops, kidnapped two others, and then demanded the release of thousands of illegal immigrant violent MS-13 gangbanger felons as ransom? Would we declare war on Mexico? Of course not. But what if the northern half of Mexico were MS-13 and they regularly launched frickin' rockets into San Diego?

It is extremely discouraging that Israel has to act unilaterally in its own defense because the weak lebanese government cannot control the psychotic murdering half of its country. The Lebanese government should be working with Israel to clean out the Hizbullah rodents.

Using your analogy, US forces then sends gunships and bombers to obliterate Mexican police outposts and HQs and civilian infrastructure thus rendering Mexican authorities even less able to cope with the guerillas and furthur angering the Mexican public at large.

The Israeli position has nearly always been to falsely portray itself as being reactive and retaliatory instead of being the aggressive colonizer that it is.

If Israel wants to win sympathy then it should go after Hezbollah targets not Lebanese assets.

[scotchedpommes]

You are patently wrong. Israel has only just called up its reservists. If an invasion was planned then the Israelis would have performed this call-up weeks if not months ago and they would have been in Lebanon for the last two weeks at least.

Patently wrong about what? Just because no mobilisation had occurred does not
mean there couldn't possibly have been any plan. And the question still stands,
why not use other methods?

[Divinus Arma]

Using your analogy, US forces then sends gunships and bombers to obliterate Mexican police outposts and HQs and civilian infrastructure thus rendering Mexican authorities even less able to cope with the guerillas and furthur angering the Mexican public at large.

The Israeli position has nearly always been to falsely portray itself as being reactive and retaliatory instead of being the aggressive colonizer that it is.

If Israel wants to win sympathy then it should go after Hezbollah targets not Lebanese assets.

Show me proof where Israel has target Lebanese military and law enforcement.

[x-dANGEr]

How would you feel if Mexicans guerillas snuck across our border, murdered eight national guard troops, kidnapped two others, and then demanded the release of thousands of illegal immigrant violent MS-13 gangbanger felons as ransom? Would we declare war on Mexico? Of course not. But what if the northern half of Mexico were MS-13 and they regularly launched frickin' rockets into San Diego?

Where did you add that bonus from? Hezbullah didn't regularly launch rockets before this whole thing.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Your analogy Eclectic, is an appeal for an emotional response, which is precisely the problem here. Israel is making a huge mistake by trying to break Hezbollah in Lebanon through smashing that country into pieces. A failed state on its northern border is more like the US transforming Mexico into Afghanistan.

A strong, western leaning Lebanon was Israel's best security. A low-key and measured response in collaboration with the Lebanese was called for here - and better support for the Lebanese security forces becoming more powerful since the pull-out would have helped. Lebanon's progress was significantly proven when they ejected the Syrians. Hezbollah was more of a problem, but they could have dealt with them soon enough.

Instead, Israel has opted to do Syria's dirty work for them. The Syrians (so far entirely without any loss at all) have gained revenge on the Lebanese government, reasserted their influence over Hezbollah and made Israel look like murderous lunatics.

Israel has a failed state on its border, potentially a long-term occupation, hordes more Arabs signing up to blow themselves up in Tel Aviv and pictures of dead babies beaming around the world. Even if they root out Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, the rockets and nutters will still be around hiding in the north or popping over from Syria.

Eventually, they will have to go home again and the terror groups will infiltrate down and we're back at square one.

PM Olmert is too weak at home to have chosen the sensible alternative noted above. If Olmert really had a backbone, he would be attacking Syria, which has a lot of military targets he could destroy without collateral damage. The supplies to Hezbollah would dry up pretty soon if Assad is getting his ass handed to him, even symbolically.

Destroying Lebanon makes no sense whatsoever. Except to Syria which is laughing with victory.

[scotchedpommes]

Show me proof where Israel has target Lebanese military and law enforcement.

Israel attacks Lebanese army barracks

BEIRUT, Lebanon, July 18 (UPI) -- Israel appears to be seeking to engage the Lebanese army in its open war against Hezbollah, in which civilian infrastructure has been targeted.

Israeli warplanes pounded an army barracks east of Beirut in an overnight raid in which 11 troops, including four officers, were killed and 40 injured, an army statement said Tuesday.

Article.