Ground War in Lebanon

[Divinus Arma]

Israel will Invade Southern Lebanon: Self-defense against a growing terrorist threat? Or is Israel pursuing unseen ambitions? Both?

Times Online July 21, 2006
Israel calls up reservists for push into Lebanon
By Times Online and Nicholas Blanford in Tyre, Lebanon

Israel called up five battalions of army reservists today and dropped leaflets across southern Lebanon warning civilians to leave towns and villages and head north towards Beirut as it prepared for a major ground offensive against Hezbollah positions.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...280007,00.html

Lebanese Army will Stand with Hizballah: Does this make them a state sponsor of terror? Or are they protecting their sovereignty from a foreign invasion? Both?

Jul. 20, 2006 17:23
Lebanese Army may join forces with Hizbullah
By JPOST.COM STAFF

The Lebanese Minister of Defense warned Israel Thursday that if IDF ground forces are sent into southern Lebanon, Lebanese troops will fight along with the Hizbullah against Israel.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

So far, no word on potential expansion into Syria and Iran. However, this is highly calculated:

Iran's Destabilization of the Middle East
July 21st, 2006

The current conflict being fought on Lebanese soil caused the nation of Iran to achieve its immediate goal of diverting world attention away from its non-compliance on the nuclear issue. It successfully prevented condemnation from international leaders meeting at the G8 summit in regard to its continued uranium enrichment program. It also temporarily distracted world powers from focusing their attention on punishing Iran with sanctions in the UN Security Council.

http://www.americanthinker.com/artic...rticle_id=5687

By Peter Brookes
Iran: Overplaying Its Hand?
July 20, 2006 11:42 AM EST
(Editorial)

While the world focuses on the smoldering conflict in the Middle East, the war’s instigator -- and puppeteer -- Iran must be pretty darn pleased with itself. While Iranian-backed Hezbollah jolts Israeli cities with rockets and Israeli forces ferret out terrorist militants across Lebanon, Iran has suffered nary a nick, verbally or otherwise.

Moreover, Tehran was skillfully able to divert attention from its nuclear (weapons) program, keeping its atomic aspirations out of the limelight at the G-8 summit last weekend in St. Petersburg, Russia.

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/16299.html

It seems that Iran has met with huge success with their plan to use Hizballah in provoking a war between Lebanon and Israel to distract the rest of the world from its nuclear ambitions.

I suspect that Israel is well aware of this and is making plans for a regional conflict, starting with strategic air assaults against Iran's know nuclear facilities, as well as the infrastructures of both Iran and Syria in a pre-emptive tactic to stall military response.

I highly suspect that this will grow much worse.

[yesdachi]

Lebanon better be getting a heck of a kickback from Iran for doing their dirty work and bringing so much destruction to their country.

I think Israel might gain some popularity, at least from the “west”, from this. I am noticing more people offering verbal support for Israel lately, I think as long as it is not our military being used Americans like to see terrorists getting attacked and care little about the collateral damage and although the mainstream media is crying about an imbalance in casualties I think most people are seeing the fact that less Israelis are dying than their enemies is a good thing.

On a cautionary note to Israel, I think they need to be alert as their military has not had a full blown “ground” operation is some time and as the US has found any prolonged action is not going to make them very popular with anyone.

[macsen rufus]

It seems that Iran has met with huge success with their plan to use Hizballah in provoking a war between Lebanon and Israel to distract the rest of the world from its nuclear ambitions.

Well, hardly -- EVERYONE is talking about Iran's nuclear programme in the context of events in Lebanon. Not exactly a distraction, is it?

I'm verging more towards Syria than Iran as the 'behind-the-scenes' culprits, after seeing some other threads highlighting how Hisballah and Tehran aren't as close as they used to be. Syria has treated Lebanon as its backyard for years, and has the recent humiliation to live down. What better way than provoke an Israeli invasion so they can "rescue" the Lebanese all over again?

Iran, through having helped found Hisballah, might well be the "obvious" culprit, but it is also the West's preferred culprit, as it would give just one more excuse to have a go.

Also, that quote above saying that Lebanese forces will fight "alongside" Hisballah looks highly suspect, as in agenda-driven. BBC sources show Lebanese govt asking BOTH Hisballah and Israel to ceasefire, and maybe meeting any Israeli invasion in battle, but NOT necessarily alongside Hisballah. I think there's more interpolation than quote at Jpost.

I'm surprised that Lebanese forces haven't already been mobilised against Israeli attacks. At the least you'd expect some AA cover for their civilian population?? On the other hand, I also suspect Hisballah are better armed than the Lebanese govt anyway. Even so, a sovereign nation defending its borders hardly qualifies as state sponsored terrorism, even if terrorists are also fighting the same invasion. Your enemy's enemy isn't necessarily your friend.

I highly suspect that this will grow much worse.

... on that you have my 100% agreement.

[Blodrast]

Question: pardon my ignorance, but why exactly does it make sense for Israel to push for a major ground offensive against Hesbollah ? Is there any reason to believe that Hesbollah will meet them head-on, like medieval battles ? Seems to me that only a guerilla war has been fought till now, with at most small-scale local confrontations, rather than an all-out clashing of large number of troops...

So, again, I ask, why exactly does it make sense for Israel to change the way it's been running the show so far ?

[Divinus Arma]

The aim of Israel in pursuing a ground operation in Southern Lebanon is such:

By deeply penetrating southern Lebanon and occupying the territory, Israel creates a buffer zone which lengthens the distance that Hizballah rockets must travel in order to successfully strike targets. After all, if Hizballah cannot operate in the Southern portion, it will be forced to operate from entral and northern areas of Lebanon. There is further benefit to this because the population of central and northern Lebanon is less sympathetic to Hizballah.

The difficulty comes in the actual occupation, wherein an insurgency akin to Iraq is inevitable. Despite this unpalatable situation, Israel would rather its soldiers face danger than its civilians. Israel can sustain an indefinite occupation while sustaining occupation casulaties with little disruption to its economy. This is politically undesirable, but something that Israeli politicians currently view as a necessity.

Of course, Israel can further gain if the people and government of Lebanon fail to support Hizballah. This is impossible if Hizballah operates from its southern stronghold, but far more likely in Central and Northern Lebanon. Christian elements will not be thrilled to see Shiite Muslims launching rockets from their neighborhoods.

[Tribesman]

Question: pardon my ignorance, but why exactly does it make sense for Israel to push for a major ground offensive against Hesbollah ?
It makes sense in so far as the air offensive ain't doing nothing really .
The Isrealis will push as far as the river , which will stop the attacks on Haifa but not on the northern towns , then they will sit there for a few years killing and getting killed , then they will withdraw and start all over again at square one .
But hey , they did say they wanted to turn the clock back 20 years .

[spmetla]

One of the purporses is to stop allowing southern lebanon to be a rocket launch zone for Hezbollah. If Israel occupies fifteen or so miles of southern Lebanon then for the most part Hezbollah won't be able to fire rockets into Israel with the relative ease they've enjoyed so far.

I don't think the Lebanese army will engage the IDF unless they advance as far north as Beirut which is definatately not needed.

[Tribesman]

. Israel can sustain an indefinite occupation while sustaining occupation casulaties with little disruption to its economy.
No Divinus , even mobilisation of its forces gives a big hit to the Israeli economy ,(look at the run up to the war with Egypt) maintianing the troop levels and the extra cost of operations and occupation give a really big hit to the economy .

[Blodrast]

Cool, okay, thanks for the explanations.

It makes sense in so far as the air offensive ain't doing nothing really.

I guess I was wondering about this, too, i.e., why the strategy they've been using so far isn't good enough anymore (since, obviously, they have been trying to prevent Hesbollah from launching rockets at Israeli targets until now as well).

I see the logic behind them preferring their soldiers to take the hits rather than their civilians, but it seems to me like an actual occupation, efficient (i.e., dense) enough to prevent more launchings, would be _really_ expensive...
I see them being harrassed by tiny mobile Hesbollah groups all the time - again, guerilla all the way, in which case the Israeli army will more or less sit there and take casualties... sure, this will certainly reduce missile launchings, but it doesn't sound that great of a solution to me, since the costs might even be higher...

Moreover, how long does it make sense to occupy the territory ? Indefinitely ? Not feasible. The Hesbollah aren't just gonna go away, so what's gonna be different when the Israeli pull back ? Isn't it all just gonna start all over again, from square one ?

[Tribesman]

Well apparently someone doesn't know about the Lavon affair for starters .
A wonderful little episode where a certain government bombed western owned business interests in the hope that someone else would get the blame . A rather embarrasing episode for those involved thathad ar reaching consequences .
Perhaps the tiniest bit of actual knowledge about a subject can stop foolish accusations about racist lies eh

Now should I provide a link or will a major interntional incident be easy enough for people to find by themselves ?