Mafia III: Return of the Mafia [Concluded]

[scotchedpommes]

As far as I am aware, I was not obliged to give anything more than my vote, and
I was content not to add any explanation or additional meaningless vote based
on the flawed system presented by Divinus. None of the reasoning shown so far
has convinced me of anyone's innocence or guilt. [except perhaps that of Silver]

Consider my vote unchanged.

[Pannonian]

However, the fact that Pannonian actually mentioned the possibility that he was meant to be framed without anyone else first accusing him makes me very doubtful that he's actually a mafioso. It would be a very foolish mafioso who would point out his own connection to the murder when it would have otherwise gone unnoticed. But, if the mafioso is in fact a fool, the fact that his somewhat elaborate allibi couldn't be used due to the fact that no one even seemed to notice the obvious connection might hurt his pride and tempt him to point out his allibi unnecessarily.

Wow, that's the most I've analyzed anything since this game started. And its 2:00 AM here, and classes start tomorrow, so I'm going to bed. But I think investigating Pannonian is worth considering.

There I was, thinking that a Frontroom n00b should contribute to the game. Perhaps the best survival strategy after all is to keep quiet and not draw attention to oneself. OK, from now on votes and nothing else from me. Back to the Backroom I go.

[Moros]

There I was, thinking that a Frontroom n00b should contribute to the game. Perhaps the best survival strategy after all is to keep quiet and not draw attention to oneself. OK, from now on votes and nothing else from me. Back to the Backroom I go.

Don't be offensed. Everybody is just in a paranoïd mood to find those mafiosi. Almost everyhting you post here is regarded as suspicious.

[Cowhead418]

Fellow villagers, you are going about this all wrong! Silver Rusher is claiming that he is leaving, but we will know if he is lying by checking when he last visited or if he goes into invisible mode. The General already said he wouldn't allow a mafia to conduct business while away so wasting a lynching on Rusher would be pointless. Even if he were a mafia, the fact that he is leaving means the General would probably appoint somebody else. And while the mafia may not want to assassinate him if he is indeed innocent, what would be the point of lynching him if we knew he was innocent?

The best strategy for a mafia is to vote every round while not drawing too much attention to himself. However, seeing how Lehesu was able to survive all of last game without a single post, I could see the current mafia possibly adopting this tactic. Of course, if they were using this tactic, the fact that I called them out on it means they might use a different strategy. Here we are near the end of Round 2, and there are several posters who haven't voted at all:

Destroyer of Hope
Ianofsmeg16
littlelostboy
Stormcrow
Krazelic
Kagemusha
Alexander the Pretty Good
diablodelmar

Two of these posters haven't visited in the past few days, but the rest have been active. Dropping in to vote doesn't exactly take a long time to do, so I'm skeptical as to why they haven't voted yet. Krazelic doesn't have a Last Visited time, so that must mean he is in invisible mode - why I'm not sure.

Sasaki has already pointed out those that have bandwagoned, but Ice, Csar, Divine Wind, Hiji, and SSNeoperestroika have given very short, sweet, and simple votes without any reasons attached to them.

[GeneralHankerchief]

You guys really brighten my day with all this. Thanks for it . I want to actually play in the next game so I can scream my comments instead of just chuckling to myself at the keyboard.

[Lemur]

Why are you targeting me Lemur? Cause we have history? Damn if you want me dead give a good reason! What's wrong with being helpful! I don't want to have a cheesedick game here with everybody being silent in fear! Let's play! And why the hell are you disappearing? Why did you even volunteer if you just plan on bailing?!

Heh, I just think it's a noble Mafia game tradition to lynch anyone who tries to be helpful. I'm doing it for tradition, man. Keeping the flame alive. Word.

I thought I was going to be sent on a business-related trip, but I got a call this morning with much changed plans. So I take that part back, I will be around. I still want the mafia to kill me before I get lynched, however, so that part hasn't changed. Statistically, the odds should be in favor of getting assassinated, so I really, really just want a change of pace.

As far as being productive and engaged, there were some clever things being done with vote-indexing last game, but surely the Mafia are aware of that now. That's the trick of it -- any technique for sussing out the mafia probably needs to stay secret, since it's early enough in the game for them to alter their behavior.

"Being silent in fear?" Hey, I'm not afraid of the mafia. I'm afraid of the pitchfork waving, brick throwing, lynch-happy townspeople.

[B-Wing]

There I was, thinking that a Frontroom n00b should contribute to the game. Perhaps the best survival strategy after all is to keep quiet and not draw attention to oneself. OK, from now on votes and nothing else from me. Back to the Backroom I go.

The only thing I actually suggested be done in regards to you was that the detective investigate you. If you're innocent, absolutely no harm can come from that, only good. Because once the detective knows you're innocent, he'll be trying to keep you from getting lynched. But now that you've taken such a defensive tone about such a perfectly harmless suggestion, I'm much more suspicious of you.

So, rather than merely suggesting it, I now highly recommend investigating Pannonian, if our detective is still alive. If you want to prove your innocence, DON'T try to "keep quiet and not draw attention" to yourself. Its clear that most of us are distrustful of those who are lying low. I'm a frontroom n00b just like yourself, and we all appreciate your participation. But the game's not about individual survival (at least, not to me); its about winning as a team. So keep contributing, even if you have to sacrafice yourself. We're all looking for evidence here - that's all we've got to go on. And it looks real guilty when someone says, "Fine, I won't say anything from now on," as soon as someone raises an eyebrow at them.

If you want to stay alive, be helpful, even at your own risk. If I were mafia, I'd probably kill of the least talkative people first, so that those who were making the most effort to solve the puzzle would begin to suspect each other. And if you don't talk, we're going to be suspicious of you anyway, so stand up and offer your opinion!

[Divine Wind]

*The Snowman of Death titters to himself..."Mere Mortals...muhaha"

The Snowman of Death's next vote is Ianofsmeg16

[Pannonian]

The only thing I actually suggested be done in regards to you was that the detective investigate you. If you're innocent, absolutely no harm can come from that, only good. Because once the detective knows you're innocent, he'll be trying to keep you from getting lynched. But now that you've taken such a defensive tone about such a perfectly harmless suggestion, I'm much more suspicious of you.

The thing is, I don't mind being investigated, but if I say so, people will argue that since I know the detective can't publicly disclose without being killed the next turn, the very fact I don't mind being investigated means I must be a mafioso. Tortuous, I know, but such is the logic some use. Reminds me of the ducking stool in a way - if you drown you're innocent, if you float you're guilty, and must be executed.

So, rather than merely suggesting it, I now highly recommend investigating Pannonian, if our detective is still alive. If you want to prove your innocence, DON'T try to "keep quiet and not draw attention" to yourself. Its clear that most of us are distrustful of those who are lying low. I'm a frontroom n00b just like yourself, and we all appreciate your participation. But the game's not about individual survival (at least, not to me); its about winning as a team. So keep contributing, even if you have to sacrafice yourself. We're all looking for evidence here - that's all we've got to go on. And it looks real guilty when someone says, "Fine, I won't say anything from now on," as soon as someone raises an eyebrow at them.

If you want to stay alive, be helpful, even at your own risk. If I were mafia, I'd probably kill of the least talkative people first, so that those who were making the most effort to solve the puzzle would begin to suspect each other. And if you don't talk, we're going to be suspicious of you anyway, so stand up and offer your opinion![

But at this point in the game, there really isn't much to go on as yet, beyond the lynch-mob psychology of jumping on anything remotely distinctive. A few more rounds, and voting patterns may become clear as in the last game, but the first 2 or 3 rounds are little more than pure guesswork, with whoever placed on the bandwagon (or rather, having a bandwagon set up for them) the unlucky ones, like Banquo in the last round.

Personally, I would have thought that a mafioso would be more interested in directing attention anywhere but to himself, and thus set up bandwagons whenever possible. A better group strategy for the villagers might be, not to seize on behaviour outside voting patterns as evidence of belonging to the mafia, but to empathise with the needs of the mafia and hence predict what they might do. Doing the first merely makes people afraid to talk or help, as people noted in the second game. Doing the second look at non-changing aspects of the mafia as defined by the rules of game, giving a better chance of a village victory.

[Zalmoxis]

I died, I'm lame and have no game.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

I will change my vote to Divine Wind. Is it just me, or is that snowman a bit suspicious?

[GeneralHankerchief]

"...But what if that's what the mafia WANTS us to think?"

"How do we know you're not in the mafia and just saying that to throw us off? What's your reason for voting for that person?"

"Um, because I think he did it?"

"That's not good enough! We need motive here, concrete facts on why you're voting for a person! As you know, last time the mafia voted on the bandwagon! We need to find out who's bandwagoning this time and execute them!"

"But won't the mafia know this and therefore NOT bandwagon also?"

"That's just what we want them to think. In reality, we all know that they'll be trying to NOT bandwagon since we've been so out for blood with bandwagoners. So we look for those who AREN'T bandwagoners!"

"That makes absolutely no sense. You just contradicted yourself."

"All the better to confuse the mafia, my friend."

Chief of Police Beirut finally interrupted. "Enough, gentlemen," he said. Everyone instantly stopped and listened. "In case you all forgot, we do have an execution to do here."

Oh, yeah. A murmer went through the crowd. Who had gotten the most votes again?

BKS went and grabbed Destroyer of Hope, and brought him up to where Beirut was standing. The Chief of Police pulled the lever, DoH fell into the pit, Beirut poured gunpowder on him and lit it, but really nobody was paying attention. They had already lapsed back into their discussion.

"So, what you're saying is, if they give a concrete reason for voting someone then they're innocent?"

"Yes. Because before they never did."

"Right, so it's impossible for the mafia to assimilate. If what you say is true and the mafia are good at following the bandwagon, won't they just make up some concrete reason too?"

"Unless of course, we were expecting them to do that and we were to weed them out that way."

"But what if the mafia knew you were expecting them to follow the bandwagon and thus continued to not really give a reason for voting somebody?"

"Then we'd know they were the mafia because they didn't give a concrete reason for voting."

All of sudden somebody fired a gun in the air. Everyone looked around and saw Beirut, looking completely exasperated.

"Come on, people! This was an execution, not some psychological discussion! This is the Frontroom! Everyone, go back to your homes, drink some beer, look at the Babe Thread, and pray that the mafia are gone so I don't have to listen to this junk tomorrow!"

After a second, people started milling home, completely unaware that Destroyer of Hope was the person executed.

Here is the voting total for Session 2:
Destroyer of Hope: 5
Pannonian: 3
Silver Rusher: 3
Divine Wind: 2
Uesugi Kenshin: 2
Eclectic: 2
Ianofsmeg16: 2
Tiberius, Reenk Roink, Crazed Rabbit: 1 each

~~~~~~~
Still alive:
Reenk Roink
Sasaki Kojiro
Crazed Rabbit
SSNeoperestroika
Csar
AggonyDuck
evil_maniac from mars
The Spartan
Orb
Ice
Uesugi Kenshin
Tiberius
Eclectic
Lemur
Ignoramus
Kommodus
Drisos
Peasant Phill
Silver Rusher
Ianofsmeg16
Gertgregoor
littlelostboy
Cowhead418
Divine Wind
Wonderland
Stormcrow
Kralizec
Kagemusha
Hiji
B_Ray
Alexander the Pretty Good
diablodelmar
Pannonian

Killed:
Sigurd Fafnesbane
discovery1
UltraWar
Zalmoxis

Executed:
Banquo's Ghost
Destroyer of Hope

[Lorenzo_H]

Ianofsmeg16 is who i think it is.

[Uesugi Kenshin]

Thank you my fellow villagers, I will do my best to weed out the mafia now that you have given em a new lease on life. And DoH if you were innocent I'm sorry..

[Pannonian]

I have a rules question.

-I will then randomly PM two posters and say that they are the mafia. I will also provide these lucky, lucky people with the name of their counterpart in order to ensure that no people in the mafia kill each other. Their job is to PM me every session and give me the name of one user that they wish to "kill."

The aim is to prevent mafia members from killing each other. However, does this mean mafia members aren't allowed to kill each other? Can they vote for each other if they know there is another bandwagon candidate who is doomed, or do the rules explicitly stop them from doing so to cloud things? If the latter, a spreadsheet of the voting patterns might help highlight gaps.

Edited because I got the quote bit wrong.

[The Spartan (Returns)]

Ianofsmeg16 is who i think it is.

wait until we have to vote.

[GeneralHankerchief]

The aim is to prevent mafia members from killing each other. However, does this mean mafia members aren't allowed to kill each other? Can they vote for each other if they know there is another bandwagon candidate who is doomed, or do the rules explicitly stop them from doing so to cloud things? If the latter, a spreadsheet of the voting patterns might help highlight gaps.

In my initial PM to the mafia, I state two things they are not allowed to do: Kill each other and tell anyone aside from myself and their counterpart who they are.

However, they can vote for each other.

[Divinus Arma]

Nicely done Hankerchief. That was hilarious.


Who has yet to even vote yet?

[Pannonian]

In my initial PM to the mafia, I state two things they are not allowed to do: Kill each other and tell anyone aside from myself and their counterpart who they are.

However, they can vote for each other.

Does voting for each other that results in their execution count as killing each other? If so, we can discount those who have voted for the lynchees (sounds like a fruit).

[B-Wing]

Does voting for each other that results in their execution count as killing each other? If so, we can discount those who have voted for the lynchees (sounds like a fruit).

Good question. But I must argue with your claim that "lynchees" sounds like a fruit. It clearly sounds like a dairy product.

[Divinus Arma]

Lynch: Pannonian. I really am out of ideas right now. I'll probably change it once I get some compelling evidence. I was wavering on Uesugi Kenshin, but now I don't get the feeling as much. You explained yourself well enough for me Uesugi. Make that SSNeo. He seems far to resistant to me. Why not provide some logic SSNeo? It's part of the fun!



Recommended Investigation: Evil Maniac From Mars. I dunno, I just have a "feeling". But not strong enough to be lynched.

[B-Wing]

By the way, how did Pannonian end up with 3 votes against him? I only count 2, from Reenk Roink and Ignoramus. I only counted 2 for Silver Rusher, too. Can we vote through private messages or something? What am I missing here?

[Kralizec]

I've been following this thread whenever I had the time, but was never in time to vote. Sorry about that.
I have a hunch on who it might be, but given my terrible voting record in the last maffia game I wouldn't put to much trust in it

[scotchedpommes]

I would prefer not to speculate wildly. Regardless, I thought the fun was more in
being killed in time to music, in a pub toilet. Not much beats that, surely. Well,
certainly the killer ducks, yes.

[Lemur]

I'd just like to point out that both of those kills were lemur-originated. I'm glad you enjoyed them.

And I'd like to state for the record that there's no way the current mafiosos could possibly kill me in a more interesting manner. They lack the creativity and writing skills. Not to mention that they have bad oral hygiene and their mamas dress them funny.

Nope. There's no way the mafia can do something half so clever to me.

[scotchedpommes]

I'd just like to point out that both of those kills were lemur-originated.

[Already well aware. And for one of those kills I can assure you I'd have already
granted your wish were it in my power to do so.]

[Pannonian]

By the way, how did Pannonian end up with 3 votes against him? I only count 2, from Reenk Roink and Ignoramus. I only counted 2 for Silver Rusher, too. Can we vote through private messages or something? What am I missing here?

I think GHC counted your recommendation for an investigation as a vote.

[B-Wing]

I think GHC counted your recommendation for an investigation as a vote.

Hmm, I think that may be the case, as I'm pretty sure someone recommended investigating Silver Rusher as well. Be careful to distinguish between investigation recommendations and execution votes, GHC. :)

[Uesugi Kenshin]

I'm glad you believe me Eclectic.

I really have no idea who it is yet though, SSNeo does seem a bit suspicious, but I think I'll wait.

[scotchedpommes]

The act of posting is enough to garner suspicion? But I have made no references
to meatballs. I protest.