Three hours till it starts... three and a half until it ends...

[Don Corleone]

Well, you all know my thoughts on the so-called ceasefire. Hezbollah won't disarm. UN troops won't be allowed to enforce the terms of the cease fire. Israel is supposed to just sit back and let the rockets come in unanswered now....

So, how long do you all give it? A day? That long? Who do you think will break it?

My guess is Hezbollah. Iran doesn't have the Big Bad Boom yet, so they can't let things settle down and allow global opinion to refocus. They'll pull every lever they have to make Hezbollah kickstart, even firing on the French inbetween in the process....

But, I'll admit this, I would be no less surprised if Israel breaks it. I keep asking myself WHY Israel would approve their own death sentence. The only possible angle I can see for Israel is that they're hoping Iran will try a quick mass convoy right at the cease fire deadline to restock Hezbollah, then get them going again. I think Israel is thinking that'd be an ideal time to cripple the Iranian ferry system.

So, retreating yet again to the inner cynic (idealism and hope just seem to put me in a pissed off mood), I'll play the house.... I'm laying 7 to 2 on Hezbollah within a day, 5 to 1 on Israel within a day. 2 to 3 on Hezbollah at any time, 4 to 5 on Israel at any time. Your wager is on confirmed evidence in a UN situation report showing the first recorded violation of the cease fire.
Oh, I've got a long-shot angle.... 30 to 1 the French (UN) and/or Lebanese peacekeepers fire on the Israelis and 35 to 1 they fire on Hezbollah to kick start things again. PM all wagers to yours truly.

If your wallet's a bit light, just check in at the poll (though all you'll win is bragging rights).

[Tribesman]

Well since the IDF say they expect another 7 days of fighting and Nassralah saying he is only going to stick to the same deal as the grapes of wrath one , you really have to say "what ceasefire ?" not how long will it last .

Since Olmert has announced that he is entering negotiations for a prisoner exchange we might well ask (as Shlomo Goldwasser , the father of one of the hostages is) what the hell was the point of the past months fighting ?

[Hepcat]

No idea, though I don't think the ceasefire will last long. Could be any number of possibilities. All it will take is an over-zealous Hezbollah or Israeli soldier could go and shoot somebody and then it will all start again.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Israel within a day, Hezbollah at any time.

$5 on Israel, $10 on Hezbollah at any time.

Crazed Rabbit

[Quietus]

There's really no 'ceasefire'. Essentially, Hezbollah will stop firing missiles and Israel will limit its operation to south lebanon, but the fighting does not end.

And Israel will only withdraw when the peacekeepers arrive.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...1-ArticlePage1

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

By Adam Entous

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel believes it will be entitled to use force to prevent Hizbollah from rearming and to clear guerrilla positions out of southern Lebanon after a U.N. truce takes effect, Israeli officials said on Sunday.

Israeli officials said such operations are "defensive" in nature and therefore permissible under a U.N. Security Council resolution which calls for Israel to halt "all offensive military operations".

Western diplomats and U.N. officials said they feared Israel's broad definition of "defensive" actions could lead to a resurgence in large-scale fighting, preventing the swift deployment of international troops meant to monitor a ceasefire.

The Israeli operations could include air strikes against arms convoys traveling anywhere in Lebanese territory, a senior Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Major-General Benny Gantz, head of the ground forces branch, told reporters that the Israeli army will cease fire if Hizbollah will cease fire.

But he added: "The ceasefire is not a cessation of Israeli army activity in the Lebanon arena ... It will protect its troops and civilians."

Like Israel, Hizbollah has said it will abide by the U.N. resolution. But the guerrilla group said it will carry on confronting any Israeli soldiers on Lebanese soil.

"It will be a fragile truce," said a Western diplomat involved in the deliberations

CLEARING OUT HIZBOLLAH

The truce will mark the end of Israel's offensive operations, senior Israeli officials said.

But they said the army would press ahead with operations aimed at "clearing out" Hizbollah fighters from areas in southern Lebanon where some 30,000 Israeli troops have been deployed ahead of the truce.

A Western diplomat said the United States and other major powers would not object to such "mopping up" operations, provided they are restricted to the south.

More.....

[Productivity]

Both, within 24 hrs. First shot is irrelevant, solutions are all that matters.

[Reenk Roink]

Well, thankfully, the ceasefire is holding as of now, despite the occasional skirmish. If it were to be broken, I would guess Hezbollah. By the way, the ceasefire will not break just because somebody fires a shot. It will be broken when one sides escalates skirmishes to another war. Israel has already fired on Hezbollah fighters, but thankfully, no shells or rockets on either side. I'm cool with a few more military casualties, as long as civilians don't die.

[Hepcat]

Yes, no more civilian deaths. They need to conduct a more proffessional war.

[Idaho]

It's a fascinating business. I am really suprised that the IDF got as much of a pasting as they did. The Hezb AT guns seemed to have made a massive difference in counteracting the swift armour pushes. Forcing the IDF to fight with infantry making them vulnerable to snipers and ambushes from trenches.

Got to wonder why Hamas don't switch their tactics, get some AT guns and hit the Israeli army. The suicide bombers were always a failed strategy for a whole range of reasons.

[Duke of Gloucester]

I suspect AT guns are effective in defence, but using them offensively makes them vulnerable. I think Hezbollah's strategy is working just fine. They have provoked Israel into an unsuccessful and unpopular attack, undermining them politically whilst boosting their own standing.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Both sides continue with some low-level fire and counterfire -- fairly predictable really.

Interestingly, USA media accounts seem to indicate more hezbollah casualties resulting from Israeli gunfire following the "cease-fire" than during all of the preceding month. It would seem the cease fire is their best tactical move yet.

So, did the IDF "draw-down" the civilian-seeking weapons first or is there something I'm missing.

[Pannonian]

Both sides continue with some low-level fire and counterfire -- fairly predictable really.

Interestingly, USA media accounts seem to indicate more hezbollah casualties resulting from Israeli gunfire following the "cease-fire" than during all of the preceding month. It would seem the cease fire is their best tactical move yet.

So, did the IDF "draw-down" the civilian-seeking weapons first or is there something I'm missing.

US media accounts?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

As in reports on the radio and tv networks here int eh USA. Not sure whether they are drawing on direct observations, press releases or some combo thereof.

[Pannonian]

Does this count? No UN situation report, but it has been confirmed by Hezbollah, the Lebanese army and the IDF.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5265934.stm

Israel carried out an overnight raid inside Lebanon aimed at disrupting an arms transfer, the Israeli army says.

Israel's fresh operation inside Lebanon came five days after a UN-brokered ceasefire ended the month-long conflict.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said the Israeli raid was a naked violation of the ceasefire.

The Israeli army said the raid was to prevent arms being delivered to Hezbollah by Iran and Syria.

Payouts?

[Tribesman]

Oh well Pannonian , and yeterday was looking so quiet with only the usual air-force violations and those dastardly shepherds and their sheep at the farms

[Hepcat]

looks like they are pretty commited, even though Israel is violating it.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Thank heavens that Hizbollah is so scrupulous in observing the terms. Otherwise Israel might be able to trick them into re-starting the fighting.

[rory_20_uk]

Both will be of course not attacking or breaking the ceasefire, but doing completely unrelated activities, such as scouting in force, disrupting communications and in extremis rendering muntions harmless by detonating them in blocks of flats...

Lebanon's talk that they'll take action against violators of the peace must have caused rather large gut laughs on both sides. They're so spineless that they'll accept any excuse so long as they don't have to show how powerless they really are.

I personally agree with France et al wanting very clear rules of engagement. After all, israel has already killed 4 UN troops. I'd want to know that any commander that tries something like that will quickly be getting more than a stern letter before my troops went into that mess.

[Don Corleone]

Does this count? No UN situation report, but it has been confirmed by Hezbollah, the Lebanese army and the IDF.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5265934.stm

Israel carried out an overnight raid inside Lebanon aimed at disrupting an arms transfer, the Israeli army says.

Israel's fresh operation inside Lebanon came five days after a UN-brokered ceasefire ended the month-long conflict.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said the Israeli raid was a naked violation of the ceasefire.

The Israeli army said the raid was to prevent arms being delivered to Hezbollah by Iran and Syria.

Payouts?

Based on what I read while I was locked away in the woods on vacation, I'd have to call this one at 5 days, violator Israel. Since the UN was so careful to state that Hezbollah would be free to rearm, Israel knew what they were getting before signing.

Number of PM's I received confirming a wager with the correct violator and timeframe? 0. No payouts, sorry boys.