Honustly I don't think they'll do it.
If you want to know about modding you should check out the scriptorium. Lots of tutorials.
About the units skinning modelling: you'll need 3Dsmax for moddeling and a 2d graphics program which can work with tga's and with an dds plug in. (like photoshop for example, plug in can be found on the net.). There's also the caligula unit editor which handles a lot of textfile work. (don't know how much it can do as I have never used it.)

The AI is not going to happen in a million year, I think we can even consider us verry lucky if Mtw will have improved AI (not altered, improved.)

EDit: you can trust the modding tools, believe me. Tough you might want to be carefull with tools in beta stages and read about it enough,... before using it.