Three hours till it starts... three and a half until it ends...

[Don Corleone]

Well, you all know my thoughts on the so-called ceasefire. Hezbollah won't disarm. UN troops won't be allowed to enforce the terms of the cease fire. Israel is supposed to just sit back and let the rockets come in unanswered now....

So, how long do you all give it? A day? That long? Who do you think will break it?

My guess is Hezbollah. Iran doesn't have the Big Bad Boom yet, so they can't let things settle down and allow global opinion to refocus. They'll pull every lever they have to make Hezbollah kickstart, even firing on the French inbetween in the process....

But, I'll admit this, I would be no less surprised if Israel breaks it. I keep asking myself WHY Israel would approve their own death sentence. The only possible angle I can see for Israel is that they're hoping Iran will try a quick mass convoy right at the cease fire deadline to restock Hezbollah, then get them going again. I think Israel is thinking that'd be an ideal time to cripple the Iranian ferry system.

So, retreating yet again to the inner cynic (idealism and hope just seem to put me in a pissed off mood), I'll play the house.... I'm laying 7 to 2 on Hezbollah within a day, 5 to 1 on Israel within a day. 2 to 3 on Hezbollah at any time, 4 to 5 on Israel at any time. Your wager is on confirmed evidence in a UN situation report showing the first recorded violation of the cease fire.
Oh, I've got a long-shot angle.... 30 to 1 the French (UN) and/or Lebanese peacekeepers fire on the Israelis and 35 to 1 they fire on Hezbollah to kick start things again. PM all wagers to yours truly.

If your wallet's a bit light, just check in at the poll (though all you'll win is bragging rights).