Gas prices and Bush's approval rating

**Xiahou** · 09-15-2006, 02:16

Is it really as simple as this?

(click for fullsize)
Looks like a pretty strong correlation...

**GoreBag** · 09-15-2006, 02:35

Correlation's not causation! Waaah waaah waaah.

It makes sense to me. People hate Bush and they hate expensive gas. Gotta blame someone.

**Lemur** · 09-15-2006, 04:07

Neat chart! I doubt the relationship is causal, but the graphic is amusing. Ask yourself, Xiahou -- has your support for the Prez been tied to gas prices? Or have other events had any significance?

It's also worth noting that some of the major events in this Presidency also had an effect on oil prices. Invasion of Iraq had an effect on oil. Katrina had a big effect on oil. Saber-rattling with Iran had an effect as well.

**Xiahou** · 09-15-2006, 05:01

I dunno, sometimes you have to wonder. I just saw a FNC/Opinion Dynamics poll that now says Iraq is the primary issue on voters minds- it was previously the economy.

And then there's this gem from a poll in April:

Far and away the top reason for those saying it feels like the economy is getting worse is gas prices. Six in 10 cite rising gas prices, outdistancing other frequently mentioned reasons such as the lack of jobs (28 percent) and grocery prices (15 percent).

link

Hmmm...

**Hepcat** · 09-15-2006, 09:44

I could imagine that chart being used in a Republican election campaign.

Their slogan:
You've got to believe!

It isn't the president's fault oil prices are high, IT'S YOURS!

**macsen rufus** · 09-15-2006, 10:17

The classic example of spurious statistics in the UK comes from the 18th century (I believe) where there is a very similar graph showing correlation between the price of gin and the wages of parsons. VERY close correlation, but causation???

To say there's a causative link here would be like saying Americans don't care about anything but the cost of their gas..... oh, hang on, hmmmm. Maybe there is a point after all

**Xiahou** · 09-20-2006, 00:23

The US average price per gallon is now down to $2.49.

Meanwhile, Bush's approval rating has climbed to 44%.

link
and
link

**yesdachi** · 09-20-2006, 00:53

Also interesting to note, we are less than 50 days from an election.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 09-20-2006, 01:49

Lower gas prices = higher disposable income = higher "happiness" factor -- just as good as adding an arena.

It's important in that US elections are, traditionally, dominated by domestic concerns far more than by international affairs.

Causal, of course not, Presidents influence economics years from now, not current stuff -- but they get the credit or blame and that IS causal for votes.

**Divinus Arma** · 09-20-2006, 04:18

I have some idiot family members who seem to think that gas prices are only dropping because an election is coming. Thank you mass media for your conspiracy theories and BS suggestive analysis.

I like John Stewart Question mark skit.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 09-20-2006, 13:41

Originally Posted by Divinus Arma

I have some idiot family members who seem to think that gas prices are only dropping because an election is coming. Thank you mass media for your conspiracy theories and BS suggestive analysis.

It sells, DA. Just like O'Reilly's "They're gouging you" sells. It's a heck of a lot simpler than explaining futures trading as it interacts with supply, demand, and distribution. Remember, they won't read such boring stuff and the TV newsies have only 180 seconds to devote to it.