Let’s see: 22 of June 1941, the Germans attacked Russia. December 1941, first defeat in front of Moscow. No material came at the time from UK or US 9wich wasn’t at war at the moment, or not for so long). Did the Germans had a chance to win, probably yes, like the French against the Germans in 1940 when the Air reconnaissance did actually spot and took pictures of the Panzers in the Ardennes. The French missed the opportunity, and the Germans did the same. But, could have they done better? Where and when?![]()
The Germans deployed 3,439 tanks (181 Pz1, 106 T35, 746 Pz2, 772 T38, 965 Pz3, 349 Pz4, 230 Panzer 3 Befehlswagen) in 19 Panzer-Divisions, plus Panzerjager and others Sturmgeschutz in autonomous units.
The Soviets had between 20,000 – 21,000 tanks, most of them BT-5 and 7, T-26, T-28 and T-35, with only 27% ready to fight. Evaluation gives around 15,000 tanks of which 967 t-34 and 508 KV-1 and KV2. On the 13,500 old tanks, 3,650 are really ready, which still made a total of 5,000 against 3,500 Germans.![]()
The objective of Barbarossa is to destroy USSR. The plan is simple: To destroy the Soviet Army in the open field. The primary objective is to avoid Napoleon mistake, so to take Moscow wasn’t a priority. To achieve this goal, big Soviet formations would be encircled and destroyed as near as possible from the borders. It was essential to forbid a Russian withdrawal.
3 Army Groups: North with aim to Leningrad
Centre: Ukraine (1st economic area of the Soviets)
South: going for the Oil field.
Barbarossa is based on two phases: Destruction of the Soviets armies in Byelorussia and Ukraine the advance to Leningrad at the North and the Black Sea at the South. Then, the road to Moscow will be open and the town will fall by itself. No offensive against Moscow was planned.
The only problem is nothing, no B-plan if the Red Army sustained the lost.
The surprise worked. Due to first direct order from Stalin NOT to fight, the first Russian Units surrendered, then when finally Stalin realised, the Soviet Doctrine to counter-offensive proved disastrous, especially when prepared by Timochenko without any knowledge of the situation on the field… Paralysed by fear and the souvenir of the purges, Kousnetsov,Pavlov and Kirponos tried to follow orders and were slaughtered. BUT, the 24 of June, the 20th Armoured Division attacked the 13th and 14th Pz-Division and obliged the 2 Germans Divisions to give back terrain.
So from the beginning, it is clear that the Russians won’t gave-up easily, and when attacked by surprise, the Germans effectively killed and captured a lot of soldiers; it became more difficult when the Red Army had time to prepare, as showed in the assault against the fortress of Brest-Litovsk.
The great battles gave superb victories to the Germans (Minsk, Bialystock) BUT the Soviets succeeded to withdraw in good order in the North, to Leningrad even sustaining heavy casualties. Not only the Russians didn’t collapse, but counter-attacked at each opportunity. The lack of coordination between Soviets Units is exploited by the Germans who will reach Leningrad, Minsk and Smolensk in July.
The 10th of July Stalin took command of the STAVSKA and the front is reorganised. Vorochilov took North West Front (Leningrad), the Western Front went to Timochenko and the South-West to Boudienny.
After 14 days of fight, the Germans had all the reasons to be optimistic: 89 of the 164 Soviets divisions are destroyed; the Red Army Air Forces are annihilated
However, the German lost are higher than expected (the 15th of July, Gal Halder indicated that 100,000 men killed, injured or lost) the Pz Divisions had lost 41% of their tanks, by enemy or breaks.
AND the Red Army is NOT destroyed.![]()
And finally, the Germans will fail in front of Moscow, Leningrad and Stalingrad.
The Germans had lost from the 22nd of June to the 8th of October 1941, on the Eastern Front 564,727 men (119,464 killed and 24,792 MIA), 17% of the effectives, and 50% of its tanks. The Soviets lost more (according the OKW, 2 500 000 soldiers, 18 000 tanks, 22 000 guns and 14 500 planes, according to the STAVSKA 230,000 killed, 178,000 MIA –POW most of them- 720,000 injured a total of 1 128 000 men, 7 000 tanks, 8 900 guns and 5 316 planes). Nowadays, it is generally admitted that the Russians suffered 5 times the Germans lost.
But the failure of the Blitzkrieg was obvious.![]()
In December the Germans will start to loose the initiative and the disaster in front of Moscow will avoided by first, the order of Hitler to keep the line, second the bad weather which will nail on the ground the Russian Stormovick and the snow, so deep than even the T 34 couldn’t manoeuvre.
So could the Germans done better? I doubt. And when, is never. They gambled and lost. Like the Japanese against the US, when the manpower and industrial resources of USSR kicked on, Germany didn’t stand a chance.![]()
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