Successful Counter-Insurgency

**Lemur** · 09-28-2006, 04:20

I know it's unlikely that we can have a reasonable discussion with the mid-term elections so close, but I've been thinking about what victory in Iraq might look like. I feel as though the two parties in my country are (almost) equally facile when dealing with the subject. What will winning look like? What will it cost? How long might it take? What do we need to do?

None of this is addressed in any depth. From the administration we hear "Stay the course," which is more of a slogan than a plan. From the minority party we hear a confused mish-mash of "Send more troops" and "Set a date for withdrawal," and every variaton in between.

Anyway, let's leave the two parties to wallow in their filth, and instead let's talk about winning. All I really know how to do is look back at historical examples, and try to see if there are lessons to be learned.

What are the successful counter-insurgency examples from the last couple of centuries? I'm going to list the ones I'm aware of, in full knowledge that whatever I lay out will be incomplete. Please feel free to expand, denounce, clarify and comment. Please save your party slogans and talking points for another thread. Let's just focus on a simple question -- what will a win look like in Iraq? And what historical parallels can we draw on to get that picture?

Successful Counter-Insurgencies

Malaysia in the 1950s. The Briggs Plan won the day, and it only took twelve years. (Apparently Mr. Briggs gave us the "hearts and minds" phrase, as well as one of the premier examples of successful counter-insurgency.)

El Salvador in the 1980s. Another twelve-year conflict. (Does this mean we've got eight more years to settle things down in Iraq?) Hmm, maybe this one's too recent and too politicized. I'm having a hard time finding any sort of non-partisan analysis of the counter-insurgency. Every article I'm finding is either defending or attacking the U.S.A.'s involvement, or going on about the death squads. If someone can find a good military analysis of the conflict, I would be much obliged.

The Philipines at the turn of the 20th century. Hey, a short one, just three years, from 1899 to 1902.

I'm stuck; there must be more examples, but it's late enough on a work night that I can't think of them.

**Strike For The South** · 09-28-2006, 04:25

The big thing is we hafto win the hearts and minds of the people. That is what I like to call the "key" if you will. Show them the terrosits are worse than us. However we also hafto rule pretty strictly but if anyone can do it the good ol USA can!

**DemonArchangel** · 09-28-2006, 08:09

The thing about Malaysia is that the most of the rebels were ethnic Chinese, a small section of the populace that could be easily isolated from the majority Malay population (who by the way, were pro-British).

The Philipines? A joke. Bolo wielding tribesmen vs. rifle armed U.S soldiers.

You want a successful counterinsurgency? Try the early stages of the Afghan war, before we diverted resources away from the place. Try the Australians or Navy SEALs in Vietnam, try the Colombian government's operations again FARC, try the Boer War.

The thing is, counterinsurgency requires that you be ruthless, that you manipulate, torture and kill. Unfortunately, we don't have the balls for that... but we do have the balls to arrest our own citizens and hold them without charge on the basis of their beliefs or ethnic origins.

Here's a nice read about what we did right, and what we're now doing wrong. Iraq's CI (and America's CI) is being utterly mishandled IMO.

(http://www.exile.ru/2006-September-22/war_nerd.html)

This is what happens when we have people like Dick Cheney (soulless money grubber), or Donald Rumsfeld (borderline retard) in charge of our nation.

**Pannonian** · 09-28-2006, 08:06

Northern Ireland: I've posted enough on the subject that I don't want to repeat myself.

**yesdachi** · 09-28-2006, 15:24

For a successful counter-insurgency example you could time travel into the future and look back at the next 5 years of the Iraq war, or for an example of how not to do it you could look back at the last 5 years. Doesn’t it feel good to be a history lesson for the children of our children?

Gather round children while greatgrandpa Yesdachi tells you all about how we use to walk uphill both ways to the org to discuss the Iraq war.

**Pannonian** · 09-28-2006, 18:58

Originally Posted by yesdachi

For a successful counter-insurgency example you could time travel into the future and look back at the next 5 years of the Iraq war, or for an example of how not to do it you could look back at the last 5 years. Doesn’t it feel good to be a history lesson for the children of our children?

Gather round children while greatgrandpa Yesdachi tells you all about how we use to walk uphill both ways to the org to discuss the Iraq war.

So what do you think will change in the next 5 years to make this a success? Lessons learnt? The rhetoric over Iran shows that the most fundamental lesson still hasn't been learnt, and won't be learnt in the foreseeable future.

**Lemur** · 09-28-2006, 19:57

I somewhat agree with Pannonian in his assessment. Yesdachi, it would be very helpful if you could give us some examples of what is changing in out counter-insurgency strategy that leads you to think that the next phase of the Iraq ware will be substantially different.

I find it hard to see how we can have a major revamp of the war while Donald Rumsfeld is SecDef.

**yesdachi** · 09-28-2006, 20:32

Originally Posted by Lemur

I somewhat agree with Pannonian in his assessment. Yesdachi, it would be very helpful if you could give us some examples of what is changing in out counter-insurgency strategy that leads you to think that the next phase of the Iraq ware will be substantially different.

I find it hard to see how we can have a major revamp of the war while Donald Rumsfeld is SecDef.

Well children (Pannonian and Lemur) gather round, greatgrandpa Yesdachi has just gotten back from his trip to the future and although I cannot tell you all the great things that will happen I can tell you this...
(I’ll wrap it in spoiler tags incase there is someone that doesn’t want to know of their future)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

**BDC** · 09-28-2006, 21:12

The Boer War? Of course that was almost as messy as Iraq is turning out...

**Lemur** · 09-28-2006, 21:24

Originally Posted by yesdachi

And I wouldn’t condemn our actions with/to Iran before they are even made. I can’t imagine life with such a negative attitude.

I read this sentence and wondered, "Who has mentioned Iran in this thread?" Then I went back and saw that Pannonian was referring to Iran, not Iraq. My eye glassed right past that one. We really need to be in conflict with countries that have more distinctive names.

When I said I agreed with Pannonian, I was in my alternate world in which he was talking about Iraq. Ugh. Too little sleep for the daddy lemur ...