I know it's unlikely that we can have a reasonable discussion with the mid-term elections so close, but I've been thinking about what victory in Iraq might look like. I feel as though the two parties in my country are (almost) equally facile when dealing with the subject. What will winning look like? What will it cost? How long might it take? What do we need to do?

None of this is addressed in any depth. From the administration we hear "Stay the course," which is more of a slogan than a plan. From the minority party we hear a confused mish-mash of "Send more troops" and "Set a date for withdrawal," and every variaton in between.

Anyway, let's leave the two parties to wallow in their filth, and instead let's talk about winning. All I really know how to do is look back at historical examples, and try to see if there are lessons to be learned.

What are the successful counter-insurgency examples from the last couple of centuries? I'm going to list the ones I'm aware of, in full knowledge that whatever I lay out will be incomplete. Please feel free to expand, denounce, clarify and comment. Please save your party slogans and talking points for another thread. Let's just focus on a simple question -- what will a win look like in Iraq? And what historical parallels can we draw on to get that picture?

Successful Counter-Insurgencies

Malaysia in the 1950s. The Briggs Plan won the day, and it only took twelve years. (Apparently Mr. Briggs gave us the "hearts and minds" phrase, as well as one of the premier examples of successful counter-insurgency.)

El Salvador in the 1980s. Another twelve-year conflict. (Does this mean we've got eight more years to settle things down in Iraq?) Hmm, maybe this one's too recent and too politicized. I'm having a hard time finding any sort of non-partisan analysis of the counter-insurgency. Every article I'm finding is either defending or attacking the U.S.A.'s involvement, or going on about the death squads. If someone can find a good military analysis of the conflict, I would be much obliged.

The Philipines at the turn of the 20th century. Hey, a short one, just three years, from 1899 to 1902.

I'm stuck; there must be more examples, but it's late enough on a work night that I can't think of them.