Mafia IV: Night of the Living Mafia [Concluded]

Originally Posted by Leet Eriksson

R.I.P Disco

WE SHALL CARRY ON THE ANTI-ICE CRUSADE!!

Here is an advance vote for the next day you punks:

ICE

I have to say...if you continue with this you will probably get lynched.

Originally Posted by Csar

Does anyone else find it strange that Spartan hasn't voted or posted since he joined? He is usually very active is he not? Just thought I would point that out.

Could be that he's the detective, or could be that he's gone a few days, who knows?

Originally Posted by Zalmoxis

Could be that he's the detective, or could be that he's gone a few days, who knows?

He's been on today I checked right after I posted that. I was just making an observation cause he's usually really active.

Just a heads-up, the kills will be posted a little late because I will be out all day tomorrow (Sunday).

Probably around 1 AM for you GMTers, 8 PM for the ESTers.

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

I have to say...if you continue with this you will probably get lynched.

You can't intimidate me!!

DEATH TO ICE

Well, I was going to wait until after the next kills but they will be a little late, so:

SASAKI KOJIRO IS GUILTY.

Quick note: Please make sure you have read and understood everything written in this post before making a judgement.

My suspicions of Sasaki began when he abandoned his logical accusations of Drisos to vote for DoH, after Drisos had already been bandwagoned, just because DoH posted. The reasoning for this being that DoH is never active, despite voting well in every round during his life in The Godfather, a game in which Sasaki was probably the most active participant. When this was pointed out, he answered:

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

He was in The Godfather? No way.

before quickly changing the subject. It was around this time that Myrddraal, seeing my suspicions of Sasaki, PM'd me with a plan that could hopefully trick Sasaki into killing him if he was a mafioso. He started with a PM to Sasaki saying he was convinced of his innocence, before PMing him again with a 'plan' to PM certain people each round, claiming to be the detective to them. Now, by Sasaki Kojiro's own logic (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...4&postcount=89) this means it is very likely Myrddraal is the detective, right? Especially when he says things like these:

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

As I posted in the thread, I'm tending towards thinking Drisos is innocent. From the chat Csar sounds very innocent, but then again, basing stuff on peoples attitudes in chat may be very naive so I'm trying not to let that affect me.

Showing Sasaki he may have investigated Drisos and Csar.

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

Anyway the reason I'm contacting you is to ask you a question: can you think of a reason the detective would contact someone he hadn't investigated yet?

Back to Sasaki's own logic.

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

I'd like to contact one person every other round claiming to be the detective, and see if one of those rounds I get killed. Using the chance to kill the detective as bait.

Of course, an umbrella is put in to make sure Sasaki doesn't think this is too obvious a move:

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

So the mafia probably wouldn't fall for something as simple as that, so the pm I send would imply that I've contacted several people (to give the mafia cover should they wish to kill me). I'm thinking of something like this:

The trap is baited. Does it work?

Perfectly, in fact. Myrddraal is killed next round. Even at this point though, I wasn't too sure. There was still the possibility of a coincidence.

But no, Sasaki eventually managed to finish off the case against himself by posting this:

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Consider this before you vote for me:

What are the odds, given last game, that the detective investigated me? If he did and got a guilty result you'll find out sooner or later.

Take him away, boys.

If you want to see Myrddraal's full PM to me detailing his plan, just PM me and ask.

EDIT: By the way, thanks to Tiberius for creating the reasoning that got me suspicious of him in the first place and Myrddraal for creating the evidence against him. The MVFJA has done well.

Boys and girls. Us MVFJA don't want to be accused of sexism now, do we?

Well Sasaki what do you have to say for yourself?

That doesn't follow Silver.

Anyone who can read would have unvoted Drisos after his defence of himself. That's a no-brainer. I don't remember a single post by DoH in the Godfather, he can't have posted anything significant and I didn't think on it furthur. Crazed Rabbit didn't either as you'd note. A significant change in posting behavior is an excellent reason to vote someone. I flippantly dismissed your charge to indicate that it was weak. You really suggest that I abandoned my vote on Drisos (saving his life) to give the first vote on someone with logic I knew to be false? Why? You've never answered that question.

As for Myddraal:

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

I'm going to take the risk of contacting you early. I think you're innocent. Why?

Because if you were mafia, I think you would certainly claim to be monitoring pm's as you did. But I don't think you would have actually bothered. The fact that you knew he was pm'ing econ (which I can confirm since I was testing with him) shows that you actually were monitoring the pms.

I really don't have any experience of mafia games to go on, but I don't think even the devilish Sasaki Kojiro would go into that depth were he mafia.

I may be making a massive mistake, but hey, you win some you loose some.


I'm a villager. I have nothing to prove it, take it or leave it as you will.

As I posted in the thread, I'm tending towards thinking Drisos is innocent. From the chat Csar sounds very innocent, but then again, basing stuff on peoples attitudes in chat may be very naive so I'm trying not to let that affect me.

Anyway the reason I'm contacting you is to ask you a question: can you think of a reason the detective would contact someone he hadn't investigated yet?

I'm trying to think of a way to use myself as bait. Since I'm not the detective (again, only my word to proove it) I'm expendible if you like. I'd like to contact one person every other round claiming to be the detective, and see if one of those rounds I get killed. Using the chance to kill the detective as bait.

So the mafia probably wouldn't fall for something as simple as that, so the pm I send would imply that I've contacted several people (to give the mafia cover should they wish to kill me). I'm thinking of something like this:

"Hello Sasaki,

I'm the detective. I investigated you last turn and since I think GH hasn't included any false results for the detective, I feel confident enough to contact you (even though the thread title 'night of the living mafia' makes me suspicious there may be more to this game than he claims).

I've decided to PM the (x) people I've investigated this turn to see if we can co-ordinate our actions (like masons in Sasaki's game). I think the more information we share, the more powerful the villagers will be.

Anyway, I'll tip you off if you vote for an innocent.

ttyl
Myrddraal"


However, re-reading my own ideas, it sounds so unbelievable that no half-wit would fall for it. I think I'm wasting my time. If you have any better ideas, you probably don't want to reveal them to me, remember, I might be mafia

Dave

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

I'm going to take the risk of contacting you early. I think you're innocent. Why?

I'm innocent (didn't you see my custom title?) but it's not a risk. If I were mafia and you thought I was innocent I wouldn't be likely to kill you now would I :p

Perhaps that was your plan :p

As I posted in the thread, I'm tending towards thinking Drisos is innocent. From the chat Csar sounds very innocent, but then again, basing stuff on peoples attitudes in chat may be very naive so I'm trying not to let that affect me.

I think Drisos is innocent as well. It's interesting to see those who continue voting for him.

As for Csar, I always think of the mafia as clever masterminds and that doesn't fit Csar. Mind you it didn't fit Gertgregoor in Mafia III either, I never suspected him.

Anyway the reason I'm contacting you is to ask you a question: can you think of a reason the detective would contact someone he hadn't investigated yet?

I'm trying to think of a way to use myself as bait. Since I'm not the detective (again, only my word to proove it) I'm expendible if you like. I'd like to contact one person every other round claiming to be the detective, and see if one of those rounds I get killed. Using the chance to kill the detective as bait.

So the mafia probably wouldn't fall for something as simple as that, so the pm I send would imply that I've contacted several people (to give the mafia cover should they wish to kill me). I'm thinking of something like this:

"Hello Sasaki,

I'm the detective. I investigated you last turn and since I think GH hasn't included any false results for the detective, I feel confident enough to contact you (even though the thread title 'night of the living mafia' makes me suspicious there may be more to this game than he claims).

I've decided to PM the (x) people I've investigated this turn to see if we can co-ordinate our actions (like masons in Sasaki's game). I think the more information we share, the more powerful the villagers will be.

Anyway, I'll tip you off if you vote for an innocent.

ttyl
Myrddraal"


However, re-reading my own ideas, it sounds so unbelievable that no half-wit would fall for it. I think I'm wasting my time. If you have any better ideas, you probably don't want to reveal them to me, remember, I might be mafia

Dave

I like your idea but agree you are going about it in entirely the wrong way. For one thing GH wouldn't change the rules around, we all know that.

Now, something like posting this in the thread:

"Perhaps it would be a good idea if we provided suggestions as to who the detective should investigate?"

Might lead the mafia to believe you are the detective, especially if they were paying attention to my argument against Drisos. You'd certainly accomplish your goal of bait, but you wouldn't learn anything about who the mafia are.

Perhaps you could try pm'ing certain people and simply asking them if they found so-and-so suspicious (so-and-so being someone you're "sure" isn't mafia). This could also make them believe you are the detective.

Sasaki

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

but you wouldn't learn anything about who the mafia are.

Exactly, the false info I give out needs to be controlled. I need to know that only so-and-so suspects me as detective. The more I look at it, the more of a long shot is seems.

I think pms without full out revelation are the only way of doing it, and it's a risky business. What if the mafia want me dead anyway? It would lead to a false conclusion on my part.

The alternative is to give a reason for trust in a pm to someone, then say:

"I think I'm going to try to offer myself as bait to the mafia. I'll pretend to be the detective in a pm to Sasaki asking him for advice. If I die next round, then we know that Sasaki is mafia"

If I'd contacted the mafia, they might kill me the next round to frame you.

Of course that would be gambling even more on your innocence



Of course, maybe this was my plan all along and you're the person I'm testing

I guess it comes down to whether you think I'm a moron or not.

The detective Wouldn't try a baiting plan like Mydrals. Why would he risk his own life when he has so much to offer the village?

Since it's obvious Myrddraal isn't the detective, why on earth would I kill him, especially after:

"I think I'm going to try to offer myself as bait to the mafia. I'll pretend to be the detective in a pm to Sasaki asking him for advice. If I die next round, then we know that Sasaki is mafia"

Of course, maybe this was my plan all along and you're the person I'm testing

I'd have to be an idiot to fall for either of these "traps" silver and myrddraal set.

Surely Tiberius, as a former detective, you wouldn't try and bait someone into killing you?

It's the only way you can even try to defend yourself. If Myrddral hadn't died, then you knew that you would be nailed as you would be shown as trying not to give any clues. It was your only way out, except Silver is too good at this.

Originally Posted by Tiberius

It's the only way you can even try to defend yourself. If Myrddral hadn't died, then you knew that you would be nailed as you would be shown as trying not to give any clues. It was your only way out, except Silver is too good at this.

What? No seriously I don't know what that 2nd sentance means. I'm guilty because I killed Myrddraal but if I hadn't I would be just as guilty? By the simple act of PM'ing me he proved me guilty?

You didn't even respond to my post.

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Since it's obvious Myrddraal isn't the detective, why on earth would I kill him, especially after:

It doesn't matter whether you think Myrddraal is the detective or not, the risk is still there. The risk that he is the detective and he could be about to investigate you to make sure that you are innocent. If I were in your position I would have though "OK, I need to kill the detective. Now, I have no leads other than the PM Myrddraal just sent me. I am not sure whether this definitely makes him the detective but allowing a possible detective to live when the risk of him investigating me is so huge it would be the biggest blunder I could possibly have made not to kill him."

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Why would he risk his own life when he has so much to offer the village?

If Myrddraal was convinced of your innocence, he would have had thought it a risk anyway (and when he PM'd me it did sound like he was fairly convinced, just so you know).

Anyone who can read would have unvoted Drisos after his defence of himself. That's a no-brainer. I don't remember a single post by DoH in the Godfather, he can't have posted anything significant and I didn't think on it furthur. Crazed Rabbit didn't either as you'd note. A significant change in posting behavior is an excellent reason to vote someone. I flippantly dismissed your charge to indicate that it was weak. You really suggest that I abandoned my vote on Drisos (saving his life) to give the first vote on someone with logic I knew to be false? Why? You've never answered that question.

Sasaki, even if you really did believe that DoH wasn't in the Godfather, it was still very bad logic. You cannot defend the fact that you voted for DoH just because he posted.

Calling yourself an idiot won't stop people from voting for you, so I wouldn't bother.

This seems rather silly. What reason would Sasaki have for killing Myrdraal? Since the whole premise of his post was 'if anyone kills me after this, I'll know he's the mafia', killing him would appear to be the last thing that he would want to do. As for killing him because he might be the detective, why would he bother with this complicated deception if he was? He'd just investigate Sasaki.

Sorry, I don't buy this.

Originally Posted by Silver Rusher

It doesn't matter whether you think Myrddraal is the detective or not, the risk is still there. The risk that he is the detective and he could be about to investigate you to make sure that you are innocent. If I were in your position I would have though "OK, I need to kill the detective. Now, I have no leads other than the PM Myrddraal just sent me. I am not sure whether this definitely makes him the detective but allowing a possible detective to live when the risk of him investigating me is so huge it would be the biggest blunder I could possibly have made not to kill him."

Honestly if I were mafia in this game after the last, I would be very hard put with regards to the detective. That makes sense. Killing someone who thinks I'm innocent would be the last thing I would do. As well as, say, posting so much that everyone in the game is at least thinking of me and the detective has to at least consider investigating me.

If Myrddraal was convinced of your innocence, he would have had thought it a risk anyway (and when he PM'd me it did sound like he was fairly convinced, just so you know).

No, you misunderstand. From my point of view, reading his pm's, he was discussing baiting someone else. Someone whose innocence he wasn't convinced of. The detective wouldn't do that

Sasaki, even if you really did believe that DoH wasn't in the Godfather, it was still very bad logic. You cannot defend the fact that you voted for DoH just because he posted.

No it isn't. Someone who has no interest in the game suddenly becomes interested when they are selected mafioso. I suspect most of the people who don't participate only signed up on the hope of being selected. It is as I said an excellent reason.

Calling yourself an idiot won't stop people from voting for you, so I wouldn't bother.

Ah, but I'm saying I'm not an idiot.


Oh and to end with, I'd just like to examine Silver Rushers track record:

Originally Posted by Mafia III (endgame)

Guys, I have been talking to Gert and AggonyDuck in the chat and I think they are both pretty well innocent. Everyone change your vote to Wonderland(NOT A VOTE)! Victory approaches!

Originally Posted by Mafia III (endgame)

yeah, I can't remember why I accused Wonderland, guess I was doing some form of ghost bandwagoning. I don't think it's him either.

Weeeell I think I have been able to narrow down the suspects a bit and funnily enough, EMFM is the only one left.

Crazed Rabbit (good voting record)
SSNeoperestroika (very good voting record)
AggonyDuck (convinced me in various ways, could be guilty though)
evil_maniac from mars (no evidence would make me think he is innocent, he is also a historical guy and the kills have moved on from Thracian weaponry)
Lemur (I think I'm gonna say bad villager on this one)
Kommodus (also convinced me in various ways, voting record good, etc.)
Gertgregoor (also convinced me in various ways (his behavior seems good), could still be guilty)
Wonderland (I will take Crazed_Rabbits word for it, he seems innocent)

While none of this evidence, except in SSNeoperestroika's case, can make me sure that they are innocent, probably safest to go after EMFM this round.

Oh GAH I don't know. This is too difficult. If the remaining mafioso isn't EMFM I have to say good job to them, you really have confused me.

Originally Posted by Mafia III (endgame)

It's either Wonderland or Evil_Maniac From Mars. I'm leaning more heavily on EMFM though. (NOT A VOTE)

Well the plan had two parts, I offered Sasaki two reasons for killing me.

1. I might be the detective

2. If I'm not the detective, then he can easily frame someone by killing me.

The thing is, I PMd Sasaki saying I was going to carry out the 'plan', but I never did. I never PM'd anyone apart from Sasaki (and Silver but he was dead).

The idea of this plan was:

Sasaki get's given two reasons to kill me if he's mafia. I never carry out the plan ensuring that only Sasaki knows about it.

If I didn't die I would PM Sasaki after the next round saying I'd lost faith in him. If he was mafia, he would immediately suspect me of being detective and that I'd investigated him and he'd kill me off.

If I still didn't die after that I would be convinced of Sasaki's innocence, and I would actually carry out the plan I had suggested on other people, changing the bait from being a chance to kill the detective to being a chance to frame Sasaki.

Unfortunately I died before the plan could get that far. Sorry to have done that to you Sasaki, I was hoping I wouldn't be killed and your innocence would be proven to me.

I'm not convinced you're mafia, but it's a risk which the town can't afford to take. Sorry m8, but this game is bad for your character.

I urge you to vote Sasaki.

Originally Posted by Big King Sanctaphrax

This seems rather silly. What reason would Sasaki have for killing Myrdraal? Since the whole premise of his post was 'if anyone kills me after this, I'll know he's the mafia', killing him would appear to be the last thing that he would want to do.

I think you misunderstood the PM.

The idea was for Myrddraal to be cooperating with Sasaki, finding other people. If you were in the mafia, your primary objective would be to kill the detective, right? If somebody PMs you with a bunch of stuff which makes it possible that they are the detective, why not kill them? You have no leads on anybody else.

Originally Posted by Big King Sanctaphrax

As for killing him because he might be the detective, why would he bother with this complicated deception if he was? He'd just investigate Sasaki.

Because then it wouldn't necessarily be a deception.

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Oh and to end with, I'd just like to examine Silver Rushers track record:

I was wondering how long it would take before you did that.

A question to the MVFJA:

Is there any chance that your cunning plan leaked somewhere along the way? If a mafioso learned about your plan to test whether Sasaki was guilty or not, what would stop him from killing Myrdraal and thus framing Sasaki.



Now to the matter at hand though. We have two incidents here that may or may not be related. Firstly Myrdraal was PM'ing his "things" to Sasaki, and secondly Myrdraal died the following round. Is this just a freaky coincidence or is Sasaki guilty? There are three options that come to mind on what caused the death of Myrdraal:

1. A mafioso just killed Myrdraal on random and Sasaki/Myrdraal thingy is just a freaky coincidence.
2. Somehow the plan was leaked and a mafioso learned of the plan, and used it to frame Sasaki.
3. Sasaki is a mafioso and killed Myrdraal

I am personally not sure which is true here, but it is unlikely that this is just coincidental. Thus it might be likely that we have to lynch Sasaki, unless some convincing evidence comes forth.

Originally Posted by AggonyDuck

A question to the MVFJA:

Is there any chance that your cunning plan leaked somewhere along the way? If a mafioso learned about your plan to test whether Sasaki was guilty or not, what would stop him from killing Myrdraal and thus framing Sasaki.



Now to the matter at hand though. We have two incidents here that may or may not be related. Firstly Myrdraal was PM'ing his "things" to Sasaki, and secondly Myrdraal died the following round. Is this just a freaky coincidence or is Sasaki guilty? There are three options that come to mind on what caused the death of Myrdraal:

1. A mafioso just killed Myrdraal on random and Sasaki/Myrdraal thingy is just a freaky coincidence.
2. Somehow the plan was leaked and a mafioso learned of the plan, and used it to frame Sasaki.
3. Sasaki is a mafioso and killed Myrdraal

I am personally not sure which is true here, but it is unlikely that this is just coincidental. Thus it might be likely that we have to lynch Sasaki, unless some convincing evidence comes forth.

Well, I didn't tell anyone about it and I don't think anyone else did. Number 1 is a likely option but Sasaki's post about the detective coming forth if he is guilty fits in perfectly. Of course, it would still be a reasonable thing to say if he is innocent, but it would make the coincidence even bigger and less likely.

1. A mafioso just killed Myrdraal on random and Sasaki/Myrdraal thingy is just a freaky coincidence.
2. Somehow the plan was leaked and a mafioso learned of the plan, and used it to frame Sasaki.
3. Sasaki is a mafioso and killed Myrdraal

Option 2 didn't happen. The only remaining options are 1 and 3. Personally I don't know which is true, but like I said: It's a risk we cannot take.

Unless something pressing happens and we really need to vote someone else, I think we won't take the risc, Myd.

After carefully reading, I'm not convinced of either option 1 or 3. it would be a big coincedence if sasaki is not mafia.. but is is possible of course.

however.. I'm feeling suspicious towards people not reacting to this. it's likely for mafia to keep out of real discussion as it is dangerous for them.

Originally Posted by Drisos

Unless something pressing happens and we really need to vote someone else, I think we won't take the risc, Myd.

After carefully reading, I'm not convinced of either option 1 or 3. it would be a big coincedence if sasaki is not mafia.. but is is possible of course.

however.. I'm feeling suspicious towards people not reacting to this. it's likely for mafia to keep out of real discussion as it is dangerous for them.

What else is there?

Originally Posted by Silver Rusher

What else is there?

I wouldn't know really.. it is of course possible the mafia makes a big mistake in posting, pm'ing or posting times so we want to eliminate someone else first. or the detective stepping up. but that's not likely as dead people can talk as well.

Perhaps the mafia killed Myrdraall for some other reason? There's a lot of pages to trawl through to check, but maybe it was for something else. Im sure the next killings will reveal something we can work with.

Originally Posted by Silver Rusher

I was wondering how long it would take before you did that.

It is rather significant isn't it?

Originally Posted by Myrddraal

1. I might be the detective

2. If I'm not the detective, then he can easily frame someone by killing me.

1. As I showed earlier, your pm's don't make you seem like the detective in the slightest, in fact quite the opposite. In addition, you profess to believe in my innocence, another reason not to kill you.

2. Frame someone? AggonyDuck is the only person I can recall who has been lynched on a frame and that was ages ago. Why would I care about framing someone day 2? It's pretty much a given that we're going to lynch a townie.

I'm sorry, neither of those are good reasons. OTOH, you were making very well reasoned, thoughtful posts, and had abstained in the voting. It's not like you weren't a good choice for the mafia anyway.

It's a risk we cannot take.

Yes you can. There is a detective, the real detective will be keeping quiet so as not to draw the mafia's attention, he's probably investigated me already and he certainly will after this round. Also, speculation from the dead is allowed.

The discussion I've been generating is invaluable to the town and I'm sure I can provide some usefull insight as well. You'll get neither if you lynch me.


btw, the real mafia is quietly lurking and ROFL.

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

btw, the real mafia is quietly lurking and ROFL.

If it's not you, then yes.

Stop laughing!

Originally Posted by AggonyDuck

A question to the MVFJA:

Is there any chance that your cunning plan leaked somewhere along the way?

Not a chance.

1) Sasaki hasn't, as he would have said so by now if he did to add to his defence.
2) Silver hasn't, as he wants to win and wants the MVFJA to be a success. Also, to get his revenge on the mafia.
3) Myrdd isn't mafia and wouldn't want to risk his life for.. well.. nothing, as it would be, if the plan leaked.
4) Me and EMFM probably weren't told about it. I know for sure I wasn't.

As I showed earlier, your pm's don't make you seem like the detective in the slightest, in fact quite the opposite. In addition, you profess to believe in my innocence, another reason not to kill you.

This, to me, is the main reason I'm not going to vote for Sasaki this round. I see very little in those PMs that would make me think Myr was the detective, if I was in Sasaki's shoes.

I say we just implore the real detective to investigate Sasaki.

Tiberius, why don't you answer my posts?

Originally Posted by Sasaki

You'll get neither if you lynch me.

Why would that be?