Report: North Korea Conducts Nuke Test

[Proletariat]

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ory?id=2543503

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

SEOUL, South Korea Oct 8, 2006 (AP)— South Korean government officials said North Korea performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test Monday, the South's Yonhap news agency reported.

South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun convened an urgent meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported.

The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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Now what?

[discovery1]

We wait for the siesmic test results.

[Csargo]

The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion

Wouldn't that make it more likely for the U.S. to invade?

[Silver Rusher]

Wouldn't that make it more likely for the U.S. to invade?

And have several major cities nuked?

[Proletariat]

We wait for the siesmic test results.

South Korea's intelligence agency has detected a 3.58-magnitude seismic tremor, a foreign ministry spokesman said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...1-2703,00.html

[Divinus Arma]

Now what; indeed.

[spmetla]

Wonder how long before the increased sanctions take place. Also curious as to what the reaction in Beijing and Moscoq will be. If NK is really being their rebellious little brother I hope for strong language and action from these two powers.

[Xiahou]

Something tells me China would've known about this. I don't think ole Kim can take a leak without approval from the PRC.

[DemonArchangel]

Apparently China had 20 minutes advance warning from the North Koreans (they promptly told the Japanese and Americans).

[BigTex]

We wait for the siesmic test results.

South korea has confirmed it there was a large tremor at the time that north korea said it happened http://www.comcast.net/news/index.js...09/494716.html . An invasion is unlikely, as even conservative estimates are that 1 million people will die within the first 24 hours of a war. War with North Korea would bring death tolls that could come close to WWII figures. Whats more likely are sanctions and if neccessary you could always cut off their food imports, cruel but better then any war. The real question is how long will it take for Japan and South Korea to go nuclear now......... The world has certainly changed in just a few short hours.
________________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.

BigTex

Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb

[Devastatin Dave]

http://michellemalkin.com/archives/images/maddykim.jpg

[KukriKhan]

Now what?

Up to Seoul, in my opinion. They're the most directly impacted by this development. No need for the US to take the lead - in fact, US leadership is probably counter-productive in this case. Let the most interested parties decide.

edit: Our only message to NK should be: "If some terrorist pops a nuke anywhere, we'll know who's door to come knocking on. You'll have 48 hours to prove it wasn't you."

[Don Corleone]

I think Kukri-sama raises a good point regarding the distribution to rogue terrorist organizations, but whether the DRK themselves launch a nuclear missile, or they hand one off to Hizbollah is immaterial. The core problem is lack of resolve at the global level.

Has it occurred to anyone, other than me, that PRC may have known long in advance of the 20 minutes they claim? That the 20 minute ruse was orchestrated sometime back when Kim Jong-Il received permission to proceed with the test (most likely within days of the failed missile tests).

Personally, I'm more interested in what's going on in Fujian province right now. This is the province on the mainland directly across the sea from the island of Taiwan. I don't know what actually is/has gone on there in the past few days, but when I get those answers, I think they'll be very telling whether Pyongyang is acting in concert with Beijing or if they really and truly are thumbing their nose at their patrons (a theory I have a hard time swallowing).

There's also scant information on Russian activities in Vladivostock and other Pacific strategic centers.

My point? Everyone keeps assuming that China and Russia are as surprised as anyone, based simply on their word. If they really were secretly working with DRK, does anybody think they would announce it to the world?

Why has the DRK been able to develop nuclear weapons? Because of a lack of resolve from the global community, particularly the Security Council. Who has talked tough, but balked at any real sanctions or any other real penalties that might slow the DRK's nuclear developments? China and Russia.

Personally, I believe we're being tested. The next step is a very small nuclear strike by DRK into a relatively uninhabited portion of ROK. It will be described as an accident.

Don't forget folks, as Redleg pointed out, the DRK doesn't believe in the existence of the ROK. They view the South as a rogue state and worse, a front for Western imperialists. They always have. They have always called for a unification of the Korean peninsula under a communist government centered in Pyongyang, by any means necessary. In 1994, when announcing their plans for nuclear armament, they declared their desire to turn Seoul into a sea of fire. That doesn't sound like protection from the US to me.

They hate the Japanese and would be perfectly happy to kill every last Japanese they could. They believe they enjoy the sponsorship and protection of the PRC and Russia.... maybe they really do.

One thing's for sure, we'll all know more in the next 4 days. Plans like this don't table for long...

[Keba]

Immaterial, any launch targeting South Korean soil will provoke full retaliation. There is no way of knowing where it will hit in the short time the people with shiny red buttons will have.

If NK does make the launch you talk about, then it is likely they will trigger a nuclear war, possibly a limited one, but again, possibly not. If it is limited, then you'll get the US West Coast, China, and possibly all of the Far East gone. If it isn't a limited one ... then we're screwed.

NK's stance on SK is much like Iran's stance on Israel. They may talk the talk, as you have a habit of saying, but they don't have the power, and they don't dare to make the move. Decadent western democracies still pack a punch, a big and painful one.

[Redleg]

Immaterial, any launch targeting South Korean soil will provoke full retaliation. There is no way of knowing where it will hit in the short time the people with shiny red buttons will have.

If NK does make the launch you talk about, then it is likely they will trigger a nuclear war, possibly a limited one, but again, possibly not. If it is limited, then you'll get the US West Coast, China, and possibly all of the Far East gone. If it isn't a limited one ... then we're screwed.

NK's stance on SK is much like Iran's stance on Israel. They may talk the talk, as you have a habit of saying, but they don't have the power, and they don't dare to make the move. Decadent western democracies still pack a punch, a big and painful one.

North Korea's stance on South Korea is not like Iran's stance on Israel. North Korea does not want the destruction of South Korea it wants re-unification by force if necessary. There is active campaigns by both countries to re-unit under one nation.

[Fragony]

They believe they enjoy the sponsorship and protection of the PRC and Russia.... maybe they really do.

More then a maybe, but think of it. China looks like a fool now, I doubt they like that position, being 'informed' at the last minute. China itselve is rapidly becomming a major power, buying foreign property (especially american) and that sort of thing, which means nothing more then that they will have to play it our way, a western collapse is just as bad for them as it is for us because of their foreign properties. Every chinese progress comes with new disadvantages globally, North Korea is more of a burden for them really, it's a real rogue state.

[Don Corleone]

More then a maybe, but think of it. China looks like a fool now, I doubt they like that position, being 'informed' at the last minute. China itselve is rapidly becomming a major power, buying foreign property (especially american) and that sort of thing, which means nothing more then that they will have to play it our way, a western collapse is just as bad for them as it is for us because of their foreign properties. Every chinese progress comes with new disadvantages globally, North Korea is more of a burden for them really, it's a real rogue state.

If Beijing itself views it's role and their goal as to limit the DRK's nuclear ambitions, yes, I agree they do look foolish and are probably enraged. But when has China ever shown restraint when they are truly angry about something? There are plenty of actions they could take to make it very clear to Pyongyang just how displeased they are. Until now, tough talk has been the extent of it. Announcing a halt on all foreign aid, a cessation of joint training and maneuvers, an arms embargo... China could have done any of these things in the past few years and has steadfastly refused to do so. This forces me to conclude that limiting DRK's nuclear ambitions is not really the goal of Beijing, and therefore, from where they sit, there is no egg on their face.

[Fragony]

There are plenty of actions they could take to make it very clear to Pyongyang just how displeased they are. Until now, tough talk has been the extent of it.

Used to be brothers in arms China is still a communist country (well not really of course), this is all a rather unfortunate position for our yellow dragon, you could compare it to a muslim nation giving the finger to the palestines. China isn't pleased at all, I am sure of that, they look like complete fools.

[Pannonian]

If Beijing itself views it's role and their goal as to limit the DRK's nuclear ambitions, yes, I agree they do look foolish and are probably enraged. But when has China ever shown restraint when they are truly angry about something? There are plenty of actions they could take to make it very clear to Pyongyang just how displeased they are. Until now, tough talk has been the extent of it. Announcing a halt on all foreign aid, a cessation of joint training and maneuvers, an arms embargo... China could have done any of these things in the past few years and has steadfastly refused to do so. This forces me to conclude that limiting DRK's nuclear ambitions is not really the goal of Beijing, and therefore, from where they sit, there is no egg on their face.

The North Korean threat to China is the one the Chinese used to confront the west with - if the west/China do something that China/North Korea doesn't like, they'll open the borders and let the neighbours deal with the influx. Looking at Chinese preparations in Fujian to invade Taiwan is silly, since the consistent line taken by Beijing over the last decade is to avoid unrest at almost all costs, since it's bad for business. The only thing that can rile them is Taiwanese independence, since it will probably encourage non-Chinese regions like Tibet and Xinjiang to seek independence too. Barring that, the current standoff between Beijing and Taipei is acceptable to the PRC, who take the view that they can wait it out and sooner or later Taiwan will voluntarily return to the fold.

Let Seoul deal with this, but let them know that the west will back whatever they settle on, with all the resources at our disposal. Keep our noses out of it until they say we're wanted.

[KukriKhan]

A grim scenario our Honorable Don Corleone paints. But then, every new entrant to the nuke "club" pushes us all closer to the day when nuclear devastation reigns and rains.

All the more reason, imo, to keep our (US) rhetoric simple and direct. Forget the "this is unacceptable" equivocating. The days of treating NK like a spoiled child are over. They have adult tools now, and are determined to be taken seriously. We should do so.

Let the UN do the hand-wringing and bluster it's famous for. I'm sure it will all be laid at our doorstep as being our fault, anyway.

[Scurvy]

again the answer is either everyone has nukes, or no-one, if other countries see the US and others with them, they want to have them too! but thats never going to happen, so meh

[Xiahou]

Has it occurred to anyone, other than me, that PRC may have known long in advance of the 20 minutes they claim? That the 20 minute ruse was orchestrated sometime back when Kim Jong-Il received permission to proceed with the test (most likely within days of the failed missile tests).

I totally agree. North Korea is dependant on China to prop up it's economy and military- I seriously doubt that DPRK would do anything like this without having China's approval well in advance.

[Don Corleone]

Thank you for the correction Xiahou, I thought it was the Democratic Republic of Korea, not the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

I will say, again, it's entirely possible for the Chinese government itself, strictly speaking, to have been ignorant of this. The Army (the PLA) operates autonomous of the People's Assembly and doesn't answer to them. While I could believe the PRC government itself may not have known in advance and endorsed North Korea's test, I cannot believe that North Korea did this without the expressed consent of the PLA brass. It just wouldn't happen.

[Ser Clegane]

Is it your contention that China has done anything let alone enough to curb the DRK's nuclear amibitions?

Not at all - I agree that China could have done much more, however I do not necessarily sahre the notion that China is particularly happy with what is happening now (at least not all the political leadership in China - I think it would be quite a mistake that the leadership in China - politicians as well as military leaders - share a common view regarding how North Korea should be treated).

The Chinese leadership probably was quite fond of the barking little dog that served as a neat little buffer between China and the US-ally South Korea and that from time to time gave China the opportunity to act as a mediator to calm down the barker.
I somewhat doubt that they are equally fond of having yet another neighbour that actually has nuclear weapons and that might be as esay to control anymore.

It is interesting though that China is a key player with regard to solutions to the two current nuclear threats - North Korea and Iran.
Who knows - perhaps they indeed plan to to cash in on two huge bargaining chips...

[Redleg]

Now what?

Up to Seoul, in my opinion. They're the most directly impacted by this development. No need for the US to take the lead - in fact, US leadership is probably counter-productive in this case. Let the most interested parties decide.

edit: Our only message to NK should be: "If some terrorist pops a nuke anywhere, we'll know who's door to come knocking on. You'll have 48 hours to prove it wasn't you."

Well it seems the South Korean's are approaching it from multiple fronts

http://www.korea.net/News/News/NewsV...09047&part=102

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

President Roh warns Pyongyang that Seoul may jettison ’sunshine policy’
Date: October 10, 2006

President Roh Moo-hyun said Monday (Oct. 9) that the South Korean government will face increasing difficulties in pushing ahead with its engagement policy towards North Korea due to North Korea’s announcement of a nuclear bomb test earlier in the day.

The president said his government is losing its momentum for continued dialogue with North Korea in the face of hard-line international calls for sanctions and pressures against the communist state.

"Under these new circumstances, the government will increasingly find it difficult to stick to its engagement policy towards North Korea," Roh said in a news conference held at his office Cheong Wa Dae shortly after his summit talks with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

"South Korea may not ultimately abandon its engagement with North Korea, but objective circumstances are changing. We’ll not give up our desire for peaceful and dialogue-based settlements. Unlike in the past, we may not continue to be patient and yield to North Korea’s demands," the president said.

The president said the contents of the new "common and broad approach" towards North Korea, agreed upon during his summit with U.S. President George W. Bush last month, will inevitably be changed.

"North Korea’s (claim to have conducted a) nuclear weapon test is a grave threat to the peace and stability in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula. It also frustrated the expectations of the Korean people and the international society for a nuclear-free peninsula."

"The government will sternly and cool-headedly cope (with the situation) through close consultations with domestic political leaders and international society. The government will actively take measures to minimize the negative economic impact from North Korea’s possible nuclear-bomb test," the president said, urging the public to continue their regular lifestyles.

Roh said he will meet with domestic ruling and opposition party leaders and former South Korean presidents on Tuesday to discuss specific countermeasures against North Korea’s latest provocation.

Turning to his two-hour-long summit with Abe, Roh said he and the visiting Japanese prime minister agreed to work for future-oriented bilateral relations.

The president also said he will visit Japan at an appropriate time and continue to persuade Abe not to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, which honors Japan’s war criminals.

"My government will continue to persuade the Japanese leader through dialogue not to visit the Yasukuni Shrine. Prime Minister Abe may find it difficult to abruptly change his political position," Roh said.

"My understanding is that Prime Minister Abe will not visit Yasukuni Shrine. Any visit he makes there could again strain bilateral relations."

The president also noted that Japan’s nuclear armament does not appear imminent, despite North Korea’s claim to have successfully test-launched a nuclear bomb.

And other news

http://www.korea.net/News/News/NewsV...09028&part=102

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Seoul to back U.N. action on Pyongyang
Date: October 10, 2006

South Korea condemned North Korea's announcement of its first-ever nuclear test on Monday (Oct. 9), saying Seoul supports international efforts to discuss the issue immediately at the United Nations Security Council.

The presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae said that it would never tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea, which trampled on the hopes of the international community to keep the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons.

“It is an unacceptable provocation,” presidential spokesman Yoon Tai-young said in a statement after a National Security Council meeting. “We will cope with the situation sternly guided by firm principle.”

President Roh Moo-hyun had a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier in the day. Roh is also set to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing on Friday.

Earlier in the morning, South Korean authorities, including intelligence officers and seismologists, said that an explosion had been detected in the northeastern part of North Korea, sending out a shockwave measuring 3.5 on the Richter scale at around 10:35 a.m. (KST).

Roh called an emergency meeting of the National Security Council with security-related Cabinet ministers and top intelligence officers after North Korea made an official statement that it had carried out its first-ever test of a nuclear weapon.

The South Korean military said it was maintaining a watertight defense posture along with the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) and is considering raising its alert level to WATCHCON II (watch condition II).

The following is the full text of the statement by the South Korean government.

Statement of the Government of the Republic of Korea on the North Korean Nuclear Test

On October 9, the Korean Government detected signs suspected of a nuclear test in the Hamgyongbuk-do (province) region in North Korea, and the President presided over an emergency meeting of the security related ministers in the morning. While the meeting was going on, North Korea announced that it had successfully conducted a nuclear test, and the meeting was turned into a National Security Council meeting accordingly. The Government has decided to make public its official stance as follows.

1. Despite the repeated warnings from the ROK Government and the international community, North Korea announced that it conducted a nuclear test today. The Government will resolutely respond to the situation in accordance with the principle that it will not tolerate North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons.

2. This action taken by North Korea poses a grave threat that undermines stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula as well as in Northeast Asia. It is also an act of trampling on the hope of the international community to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue peacefully through dialogue in its quest for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

3. North Korea's conduct also constitutes a failure to meet its obligations under the September 19, 2005 Joint Statement, on which all parties of the Six-Party Talks concurred, and is in outright defiance of the UN Security Council Resolution 1695 adopted earlier on July 15. This is a provocative act that can never be condoned.

4. At the same time, through this act, North Korea has unilaterally breached and annulled the Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula that it signed with the Republic of Korea in 1991. We hereby make it clear once again that North Korea is solely responsible for any consequences arising from this situation, including the impact on inter-Korea relations.

5. We urge North Korea to immediately abandon any nuclear weapons and related programs, to return to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) system, and to faithfully comply with international norms as a responsible member of the international community.

6. Based on the ROK-U.S. alliance, our Armed Forces are fully prepared and equipped to thwart any provocation from North Korea. We warn the North to have a forthright recognition of this fact and refrain from making a misjudgment under any circumstances.

7. The Government is closely consulting with the international community concerning this matter and supports, in particular, the immediate discussion of this issue by the UN Security Council. At the same time, the Government will seek broad views on the situation from the leaders of the ruling and opposition parties as well as the opinion leaders. It will continue to coordinate countermeasures domestically and internationally and take actions in cool-headed and resolute manner.

South Korea is still dependent upon the United States for part of its defense. Seoul will be asking Washington for advice and support.


Edit: Be very careful on assuming that I think the United States should do anything immediately about North Korea having tested a nuclear weapon. As with anything on Korea - it has always been my belief that South Korea has to take the lead and the United States puts its full power in support of South Korea on any issue dealing with North Korea. But what I can not stand is the distortion of history as protrayed by some that Korea did not suffer from the effects of war. Both Korea's were brutalized by Japan for over 40 years, its men used as forced labor and slaves to the Japanese. Its women forced into slavery as sex slaves for the Japanese. The country side turned into a waste land as the Japanese stripped Korea of its natural resources. Then some forget that armed struggle that went on against the Japanese throughout the occupation of Korea by Japan.

[MSB]

I don't understand these people who build new nuclear weapons. While most of the world is disarming itself of nuclear missiles and bombs other countries are producing them. Believe me by March next year British and American troops will be in North Korea under the orders of Bush. Or Korea/Iran will have launched missiles at Japan, South Korea and China so that they can start to build an empire in Asia. Now Japan tried to do that in WWII, perhaps WWIII isn't as far off as we would like to think.

That may sound over the top, but the North Korean governent is just a pure evil group of communists that would kill millions of people to get what they want (no offence to anybody living in North Korea).

[Avicenna]

Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.

[MSB]

Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.

I know. It's just showing what could happen if this issue gets out of control.

[Avicenna]

No, that can't happen. They wouldn't want empires anyway. Firstly, it is impossible for NK to forge one due to the extent of their military and other countries. Secondly, empires aren't profitable. Thirdly, if they did try, they'd just get obliterated.

[Don Corleone]

Well, the official answer from China is just do nothing and hope it gets better. Doing anything else might upset the North Koreans. And we all know how rationally they've been behaving up until now...

Are we being played, here?