Report: North Korea Conducts Nuke Test

[Ser Clegane]

As for my statements regarding Fujian, call them foolish if you like. But if the PLA (People's Liberation Army, in many ways an autonomous body separate from the Central Committee) began new deployments there in the past few days, I would say it would discredit China's assertion that they themselves only learned 20 minutes before the test.

Since North Korea has been talking about the planned tests for several days now and since it has been all over the press there was certainly plenty of time to move troops.
I assume that the 20 minutes advance notice for China were only about the exact timing when the test would happen.

[Don Corleone]

Since North Korea has been talking about the planned tests for several days now and since it has been all over the press there was certainly plenty of time to move troops.
I assume that the 20 minutes advance notice for China were only about the exact timing when the test would happen.

Well, that's a fair point, except that the North Koreans were putting the timeline at within the next month, not a couple of days.

Is it your contention that China has done anything let alone enough to curb the DRK's nuclear amibitions?

The way I see it, China is a patron, and in many ways, North Korea is a satellite state of China. Either 1) China privately allowed this test while publicly playing along with the international community or 2) they have absolutely no influence, despite their claims to having a relationship with Pyongyang.

I suspsect that it's 1. As they've actually not done anything to slow North Korea down, and have done quite a bit over the years in terms of vetoing and blocking penalties, China bears the bulk of the responsibility of a nuclear armed North Korea, even if the correct answer is 2).

Regardless of whether China wanted North Korea nuclearly armed or not, their behavior over the past decade has all but guaranteed it.

[Xiahou]

Has it occurred to anyone, other than me, that PRC may have known long in advance of the 20 minutes they claim? That the 20 minute ruse was orchestrated sometime back when Kim Jong-Il received permission to proceed with the test (most likely within days of the failed missile tests).

I totally agree. North Korea is dependant on China to prop up it's economy and military- I seriously doubt that DPRK would do anything like this without having China's approval well in advance.

[Don Corleone]

Thank you for the correction Xiahou, I thought it was the Democratic Republic of Korea, not the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

I will say, again, it's entirely possible for the Chinese government itself, strictly speaking, to have been ignorant of this. The Army (the PLA) operates autonomous of the People's Assembly and doesn't answer to them. While I could believe the PRC government itself may not have known in advance and endorsed North Korea's test, I cannot believe that North Korea did this without the expressed consent of the PLA brass. It just wouldn't happen.

[Ser Clegane]

Is it your contention that China has done anything let alone enough to curb the DRK's nuclear amibitions?

Not at all - I agree that China could have done much more, however I do not necessarily sahre the notion that China is particularly happy with what is happening now (at least not all the political leadership in China - I think it would be quite a mistake that the leadership in China - politicians as well as military leaders - share a common view regarding how North Korea should be treated).

The Chinese leadership probably was quite fond of the barking little dog that served as a neat little buffer between China and the US-ally South Korea and that from time to time gave China the opportunity to act as a mediator to calm down the barker.
I somewhat doubt that they are equally fond of having yet another neighbour that actually has nuclear weapons and that might be as esay to control anymore.

It is interesting though that China is a key player with regard to solutions to the two current nuclear threats - North Korea and Iran.
Who knows - perhaps they indeed plan to to cash in on two huge bargaining chips...

[MSB]

I don't understand these people who build new nuclear weapons. While most of the world is disarming itself of nuclear missiles and bombs other countries are producing them. Believe me by March next year British and American troops will be in North Korea under the orders of Bush. Or Korea/Iran will have launched missiles at Japan, South Korea and China so that they can start to build an empire in Asia. Now Japan tried to do that in WWII, perhaps WWIII isn't as far off as we would like to think.

That may sound over the top, but the North Korean governent is just a pure evil group of communists that would kill millions of people to get what they want (no offence to anybody living in North Korea).

[Avicenna]

Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.

[MSB]

Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.

I know. It's just showing what could happen if this issue gets out of control.

[Avicenna]

No, that can't happen. They wouldn't want empires anyway. Firstly, it is impossible for NK to forge one due to the extent of their military and other countries. Secondly, empires aren't profitable. Thirdly, if they did try, they'd just get obliterated.

[Don Corleone]

Well, the official answer from China is just do nothing and hope it gets better. Doing anything else might upset the North Koreans. And we all know how rationally they've been behaving up until now...

Are we being played, here?

[Ice]

Well, that's a fair point, except that the North Koreans were putting the timeline at within the next month, not a couple of days.

Is it your contention that China has done anything let alone enough to curb the DRK's nuclear amibitions?

The way I see it, China is a patron, and in many ways, North Korea is a satellite state of China. Either 1) China privately allowed this test while publicly playing along with the international community or 2) they have absolutely no influence, despite their claims to having a relationship with Pyongyang.

I suspsect that it's 1. As they've actually not done anything to slow North Korea down, and have done quite a bit over the years in terms of vetoing and blocking penalties, China bears the bulk of the responsibility of a nuclear armed North Korea, even if the correct answer is 2).

Regardless of whether China wanted North Korea nuclearly armed or not, their behavior over the past decade has all but guaranteed it.

China is in a bit a jam. It gives NK most of it's food, oil, and other various supplies that allows it to survive. The way I see it China has three options:

1. Discontinue a Supply of Resources to NK: This would cause NK to either put less money into it's military or force the current NK government to collapse.

2. China could remove the current NK leadership and replace it.

3. China could continue its shipments to NK.

1 and 2 will most likely cause a massive wave of NKs into China as their would be government turmoil. This will overpopulate China's northern regions causing trouble for the people currently living there.

3 would continue to destablize the reasons resulting in various things such as: poor relations with the West or Japan/SK starting their own nuclear program.

As you see, China is in a real jam. It should be interesting to see which course of action they chose to persue.

[Devastatin Dave]

Sorry to have to be the one to point it out, but your post was certainly over the top, if anything.

How is his post over the top? You realise that this is a dictator that has already starved MILLIONS of his own people. He wouldn't give two farts in the wind nuking millions more. I was there for a year (South Korea) and understand the threat just on the conventional sense. Now he has N U K E S. At this point, Matthius Julius point could be at the minimum of what could happen. I know it makes everyone feel better to talk and have warm fuzzies and pretend that North korea is no threat (see Clinton Administration, UN, EU, etc) but now we've buried our collective heads so far up our asses that we will atleast have the ability to give them a long sentious kiss goodbye. We're ####ed period. This is gonna get very bloody and if you want to weep for the innocent people who die because of the nature of warfare, there is not enough water in the ocean to be shed for the loss that is about to happen...

Now, would you like to dismiss my opinion as well as over the top?

[Ronin]

Now what? War. If we let them get away with this, we've effectively said to the world that we carry no real clout. And you can bet your ass Iran will try to repeat what North Korea has done.

you might want to get a confy chair to sit and wait on if you think the US is gonna start a war over this.....specially not now where they´re already streched thin with 2 other wars.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I don't understand these people who build new nuclear weapons. While most of the world is disarming itself of nuclear missiles and bombs other countries are producing them. Believe me by March next year British and American troops will be in North Korea under the orders of Bush. Or Korea/Iran will have launched missiles at Japan, South Korea and China so that they can start to build an empire in Asia. Now Japan tried to do that in WWII, perhaps WWII isn't as far off as we would like to think.

Acquiring nuke weapons is a fundamentally rational decision on their part. All countries that have openly confirmed their possession of a nuclear arsenal are either major powers or treated with a different level of respect/fear because of the deterent value of these weapons. NK is simply trying to acquire this measure of "self defense." Do I believe they'll imolate Tokyo or Pusan anytime soon? No. But they sure want to let the USA know that they can do so if sanctions or whatever push them too far. Far cheaper and safer to dictatorial power to pursue this kind of leverage than to rebuild and open up the economy and culture.

I am more concerned about their track record of allowing sales to non-national actors who desire weapons. I do not relish the prospect of used reactor fuel being sprinkled onto a conventional explosion to add "half-life" to the party.

I would not bet your mortgage on the deployment of troops in NK on that timetable. Still, its your money to wager....

That may sound over the top, but the North Korean governent is just a pure evil group of communists that would kill millions of people to get what they want (no offence to anybody living in North Korea).

Yes, but they are not gibbering psychotics -- at least as far as I can find/read about. So are they evil enough to do such a thing? I agree that they are. Would they do such a thing unless they thought it had a large chance of success? I think not. As long as Kim Jong-Il is as sane as Daughazvili (not exactly a high benchmark I submit), I'm not overly concerned about a full up nuclear attack in/near Korea -- at least not given the current data.


Don C:

I don't think China runs NK as a puppet state, though they clearly have the most leverage there. I suspect that the PRC has had NK riddled with agents for decades -- unless their bureaucracy has addled their ability to do the obvious. Any PRC reactions/preparation for this event may well be the result of good intelligence and not necessarily a sign that they own PyongYang.

I agree that China has the power to call Kim-J onto the carpet if they really want to. They are central to this dispute. I suspect that they aren't pulling too hard on the leash because it suits their long-term interests to have the USA on edge and distracted by this crisis du jour while they continue to consolidate their influence in East Africa and their ecnomic influence throughout the Pacific Rim.

I suspect they will torpedo UN sanctions on a humanitarian basis in order to keep up the pressure on the USA, but impose whatever level of pressure they feel is necessary to keep Kim-J from threatening their own interests. An NK with a very small nuclear arsenal is, in many ways, useful to them. NK will not acquire an arsenal sufficient enough to threaten the PRC, since before it completed such a project it would cease to be.

[Geoffrey S]

North Korea may not use their nuclear capabiltity, but the very fact that they can hold the leverage and in the near future will add to that nuclear missiles is enough reason for firm action. As has been stated, they're part of the big boys now and cannot be treated as anything but; I'd rather see strong action sooner than later, when they will be a real threat. Strict sanctions are start, but probably not enough.

[Kanamori]

W/o Chinese aid, how long could North Korea sustain an assualt and occupation anywhere? If the Chinese do not cut aid if North Korea invades anywhere, then I think that we will have more and bigger problems... I have the impression that a very large percent of our enlisted troops are either serving in Iraq or Afghanistan, how many troops could we commit to South Korean aid if they invaded? Probably not be enough. It was folly to put off a draft and to have overextended our military as we have. Also, it seems that the continuation of Chinese economic growth is dependent largely on outside investors, and I don't think that they would want to risk the ire of their economic base too much. Of course, it would be foolish to pretend to know what the Chinese would do if North Korea went any farther than this. I think that this is probably a North Korean move for diplomatic power, but I'm certainly not about to rule out the possibility of a North Korean invasion.

[BigTex]

How is his post over the top? You realise that this is a dictator that has already starved MILLIONS of his own people. He wouldn't give two farts in the wind nuking millions more. I was there for a year (South Korea) and understand the threat just on the conventional sense. Now he has N U K E S. At this point, Matthius Julius point could be at the minimum of what could happen. I know it makes everyone feel better to talk and have warm fuzzies and pretend that North korea is no threat (see Clinton Administration, UN, EU, etc) but now we've buried our collective heads so far up our asses that we will atleast have the ability to give them a long sentious kiss goodbye. We're ####ed period. This is gonna get very bloody and if you want to weep for the innocent people who die because of the nature of warfare, there is not enough water in the ocean to be shed for the loss that is about to happen...

Now, would you like to dismiss my opinion as well as over the top?

The problem with NK getting nukes is a massive increase in tension. How long till a small incurssion by the NK forces sparks a retalitory incursion. While a nuked armed NK is not favorable to China, neither is a large contingent of US soldiers siting on their doorstep. The problem is China continues to prop the crazy lil Ping Pong up. IMO not only should we impose trade sanctions on NK but impose an embargo of all food exports from any country to the NK. Force China to supply more and more of the food for NK. If China wants them to stay let them starve next to them. We also need to get very tough with them, if they use nukes at any point we need to make them absolutely aware they will be turned into a pile of radioactive sand.

Yes a major problem with NK getting nukes is their open handed attitude towards terrorists and other crazies. We also need to let them know if a dirty bomb goes off somewere they wont have a very long time to prove their innocence.
______________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.

BigTex

Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb

[Pannonian]

The problem with NK getting nukes is a massive increase in tension. How long till a small incurssion by the NK forces sparks a retalitory incursion. While a nuked armed NK is not favorable to China, neither is a large contingent of US soldiers siting on their doorstep. The problem is China continues to prop the crazy lil Ping Pong up. IMO not only should we impose trade sanctions on NK but impose an embargo of all food exports from any country to the NK. Force China to supply more and more of the food for NK.

LOL. You're not going to be able to force China to do anything. China is a big boy, same as you, and big boys don't have the ability to force each other to do anything against their will. If you enforce sanctions against North Korea except those let through by China, China will simply allocate a certain amount of their own food to North Korea, then buy in the equivalent amount from the US for their own markets. Or they might avoid even this subterfuge and buy stuff from the US and repackage it for North Korean use. Will US farmers be able to resist Chinese green? Or European farmers, for that matter?

[Major Robert Dump]

The administration picked Iraq because they fool-heartedly thought it was an easy win and made sense on the cost/benefit spectrum. This administration and previous ones avoided military confrontation with N. Korea because of what it would cost us in money and lives, and instead played sanction hokey pokey which obviously accomplshed nothing, much like we did with Iraq post-gulf I.

Just out of curiousity, if Clinton had, say, launched a full scale military invasion of N. Korea in 1998, would the Republican Congress have rallied behind him or would they have said that it was unprovoked? After Liberating Iraq the first time, should the coalition and Herbert Bush have taken that big, already-mobilized army and headed on over to NK rather than starting the great military purge, which continued under Clinton?

Also, does this mean the price of RAM will increase? Dang! I need a new computer!!111

[BigTex]

LOL. You're not going to be able to force China to do anything. China is a big boy, same as you, and big boys don't have the ability to force each other to do anything against their will. If you enforce sanctions against North Korea except those let through by China, China will simply allocate a certain amount of their own food to North Korea, then buy in the equivalent amount from the US for their own markets. Or they might avoid even this subterfuge and buy stuff from the US and repackage it for North Korean use. Will US farmers be able to resist Chinese green? Or European farmers, for that matter?

Um yes China can be forced. China is not a self reliant big boy. It lives off others to continue. We can allways increase the tariff on Chinese imported goods to get what we want. That would also have the added benefit of giving us some more green. China is not as big as the biggest kid on the block always keep that in mind.
______________
Speak softly and carry tactical nukes.

BigTex

Ridicolus
"Hilary Clinton is the devil"
~Texas proverb

[Reenk Roink]

Um yes China can be forced. China is not a self reliant big boy. It lives off others to continue. We can allways increase the tariff on Chinese imported goods to get what we want. That would also have the added benefit of giving us some more green. China is not as big as the biggest kid on the block always keep that in mind.

China may not be the "biggest kid", but it's big enough that the "biggest kid" can't force it's hand by any strech.

Also, the economic dependency between the two "biggest kids" is mutual...

[Don Corleone]

Um yes China can be forced. China is not a self reliant big boy. It lives off others to continue. We can allways increase the tariff on Chinese imported goods to get what we want. That would also have the added benefit of giving us some more green. China is not as big as the biggest kid on the block always keep that in mind.

We won't do that, because it would cause an inflationary spike that would seriously damage our economy. We should, but our leaders have no resolve, no fortitude. CNN is right, our bluff has been called and we're going to fold. We said we would not tolerate a nuclearly armed DPRK. But at the end of the day, we lack the will to do anything meaningful to ensure that it doesn't happen, and in this regard, we are no better than the Chinese. In many ways, we're every bit as to blame for a nuclear Kim Jong Il as they are, as we haven't taken any real measures to see that it didn't happen.

[Xiahou]

We won't do that, because it would cause an inflationary spike that would seriously damage our economy. We should, but our leaders have no resolve, no fortitude. CNN is right, our bluff has been called and we're going to fold. We said we would not tolerate a nuclearly armed DPRK. But at the end of the day, we lack the will to do anything meaningful to ensure that it doesn't happen, and in this regard, we are no better than the Chinese. In many ways, we're every bit as to blame for a nuclear Kim Jong Il as they are, as we haven't taken any real measures to see that it didn't happen.

I gives you pause doesnt it? History repeating itself, yada yada.

[Ice]

China may not be the "biggest kid", but it's big enough that the "biggest kid" can't force it's hand by any strech.

Also, the economic dependency between the two "biggest kids" is mutual...

I wouldn't say mutual. Without China, we could produce the goods here that were produced in China. I would be more expensive, but could be done.

We also import a ton of Chinese products. Good luck finding someone else to take our place.

[Kanamori]

But at the end of the day, we lack the will to do anything meaningful to ensure that it doesn't happen, and in this regard, we are no better than the Chinese.

Well, not really. Although other things could have been done, I don't necessarily agree that they should have, we are certainly not the ones propping up the crazy man...

[ChewieTobbacca]

Well we've certainly had our share of crazy men propped up ;)

Anyways, as far as forcing China to do anything - it's not going to happen because we have too many business interests (as well as many other countries in China now) and basically China is now on the big boy level, and as we've seen time and time again, this administration is not willing to challenge China over economics. Look at all the talk of currency re-evaluation - all we've said is "please think about it" and they've said "okay we'll think about it" and that's pretty much been the last couple years on that topic. Nobody is going to force a country to do anything with that economy. If we simply abandon manufacturing in China, other companies from Europe, Japan, etc. will jump in and we'll end up paying more for products, something the American consumer has shown it does not want.

[Papewaio]

A lot of the manufacturing plants in China are partnerships... so if you want a slice of the manufacturing profit pie you have to be friendly with China.

Australia is one of the few nations with a trade surplus to China. New Zealand has a 'special' relationship with China... dates back to the communist uprising and a Kiwi being part of the Gung Ho initiative.

Australia supplies lots of iron ore to China, it has signed a trade agreement for LPG and it will be suppling Uranium to China. The US is a place to sell goods to, but it isn't the only place. Much like Australia has many more clients who want to buy their goods.

If the US decides to not buy Chinese goods then they will be restriciting their market... the rest of the market will then hike up the prices to the US knowing that they won't have to compete with China... guess what, the best manufacturing partner for the US would be probably Mexico

[AntiochusIII]

the best manufacturing partner for the US would be probably Mexico

Now that's a brilliant idea there!



Lots of hands, little jobs = cheap wages. Near the border, within the US sphere of influence = easy transportation, easier diplomatic/political control, less cultural barriers (not that they are a problem). Not a big boy = not as dangerous a partner. Illegal immigration problem = solved. The Mexicans = happy to have US dollars. Democracy = good for the moralists.

Hmm...

[KukriKhan]

rofl.

Maybe we should award that 700-mile border fence contract to Sicartsa . At $1.50 per hour premium pay for a Mexican steel worker (unionized, no less) and much less for the actual fence-builders, it sounds like a win-win for US & Mexico. Brilliant.

[Papewaio]

It already is being done... a lot of electronics that we get here that used to be supplied by our Vendor from San Jose is now coming from Mexico... and it is generally better quality too.