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Kommentary by Kommodus
I apologize for the lateness of this write-up. Still, have a read – many of you know most of what I have to say, but it should still be educational and entertaining.
Pre-Game
As soon as the player list was finalized, I started playing around with different game configurations using my self-programmed computer simulation. I actually felt that GeneralHankerchief’s games slightly favored to the villagers, and I was hoping to rectify the situation. Eventually I determined that, in a game configuration with 31 totals players, 3 mafiosi, 2 detectives working independently, and 2 doctors (also working independently), the mafia would win about 59% of the time if the people lynched randomly. I also ran the simulation using GH’s traditional configuration of 2 mafiosi and 1 detective. Surprisingly, that configuration gave the mafia approximately the same chance (60%) of winning (give or take depending on the number of players). I shrugged, figured things were fairly well balanced after all, and proceeded to select players to fill the roles.
The Mafia:
Xiahou, Destroyer of Hope, and Sasaki Kojiro were the randomly selected villains. This immediately raised several questions in my mind. Sasaki Kojiro always draws a great deal of suspicion simply by being himself and posting a lot; how long would he survive in this game? Destroyer of Hope also has a tendency to get lynched (though I still think this is more due to his name than his behavior). Would he be active, and how long would he survive? Xiahou, of course, was a total unknown – I was glad that a new player had gotten a role, but unnerved by the fact that he was using invisible mode, a sure way to draw suspicion. Fortunately, however, he is notably active in other forums. Suffice it to say that I didn’t exactly fancy this team’s chances.
The Detectives:
Kagemusha and Dutch_guy were chosen as the original detectives. I chuckled when I saw Dutch_guy’s name appear. His ability to pinpoint the mafia in previous games has been freakishly accurate, and while I know that some of that was luck, I wondered how dangerous he would be to the mafia in this game. What I didn’t realize was that he had just gone inactive, and would ultimately prove to be a non-factor.
I was a little disappointed to see Kagemusha’s name appear (no offense, Kage, but it seems you always get a role of some kind). I’d rather it had gone to someone else (perhaps a new player), but I stuck with my random name generation system.
The Doctors:
I was glad to see Silver Rusher finally get a role, even though the role of doctor is not particularly powerful. This turned out to be a fateful selection, as Silver did have a significant impact near the end of the game. Big King Sanctaphrax was also chosen.
Round 1
Sasaki Kojiro kills Big King Sanctaphrax
Xiahou kills GeneralHankerchief
Kagemusha investigates Sasaki Kojiro
Dutch_guy investigates no one
Big King Sanctaphrax protects Sasaki Kojiro
Silver Rusher protects discovery1
This is the round that I will remember as the round in which I found out all of the problems with the rules as I had set them up. Chief among them: I never should’ve allowed people to quote their PMs from me.
In the early discussion, even before the kills were posted, Sasaki Kojiro was getting a lot of suspicion for turning on invisible mode. A big discussion developed concerning the practice of watching people’s online profiles and trying to sniff PMs. Was it a fair tactic? Could it be used effectively to identify the mafia? Could it be defeated, and if so, how?
Here’s a history of the tactic, as I understand it:
Sasaki, however, had seen me watching profiles in Mafia IV, and chose to defeat the tactic using invisible mode. As a result, he was drawing a lot of suspicion and it was partially my fault. I became worried about two things: 1) That Sasaki would make himself too suspicious and be lynched in the first round. 2) That all or most of the mafia would be identified too quickly using similar tactics to what I had used in Mafia IV.
To try to counteract this, I instructed the mafia to communicate their kills to me using e-mail. I had already suggested that they communicate with each other using e-mail or some other outside method.
Unfortunately, I hadn’t originally given them my e-mail address. As a result of this, Destroyer of Hope was nailed by GeneralHankerchief through profile watching right in the beginning of the game, before any of my measures could take effect. Still, it would be a while before he would be lynched.
I’ll also say that after I switched to e-mail communication with the mafia, Sasaki Kojiro and Destroyer of Hope were pretty faithful in using that mode of communication. Xiahou continued to use PMs exclusively, but it didn’t matter since he was using invisible mode.
Nevertheless, Kagamusha investigated Sasaki, presumably because of his suspicious behavior. When the mafia later sent me their kills, they specified their two targets, but didn’t initially tell me who was killing who. They also told me to use a generic method, such as a gun or knife – nothing specific.
For several reasons, when I gave Kagemusha the “guilty” verdict, I didn’t give him the identity of Sasaki’s victim. Here is why:
Anyway, Big King Sanctaphrax revealed (post-mortem) himself as a doctor. I hadn’t forbidden this; I sort of wish I would have. It’s inconsistent for doctors to be the only people who can reveal their roles after death. I just hadn’t thought of that situation; it will be a rule in any future games I do that no one is allowed to reveal their role after death. However, I figured it didn’t matter much; after all, it was a stroke of luck for the mafia to take out a doctor so quickly.
At first there were a bunch of abstaining votes, until I re-introduced the “No Lynch” option, and everyone started choosing that. It looked like no one would be lynched, until out of the blue Kage decided to reveal himself.
Suddenly all hell broke lose. GH pointed out that if my PM to Kage was authentic, I would’ve given him the identity of Sasaki’s victim. Crap, I thought, my description of what information I give to detectives was just ambiguous enough that people might think that. Why the heck did I allow people to quote my PMs?
I couldn’t say anything immediately about this, as it would’ve meant certain death for Sasaki. But Sasaki posted a convincing forgery of a PM from me, using elements from his actual PM. Many chose to believe him, and voted for Kage. Suddenly the balance was swinging in favor of the mafia, and once again it was partially my fault. I didn’t know what to do about this.
Dutch_guy could’ve shown up and turned the tide, as he would’ve been able to decisively identify Sasaki’s PM as a forgery. However, it was at this point that I realized he was AWOL. With only one active detective, the townspeople were hamstrung.
Even so, AggonyDuck went with his instincts and voted Sasaki. Once again this guy’s instincts were spot-on; maybe we should listen to him more. A few of you actually followed him, and because of irregularities in my schedule, the voting period was longer than normal.
In the end, though, it made no difference, and Kagemusha was lynched. Due to Sasaki’s scheming, the mafia had begun on a fantastic note: one doctor and one detective eliminated, and the other detective remaining inactive. At first I had been worried about another decisive villager victory; now I was worried about precisely the opposite.
Executed: Kagemusha
Round 2
Sasaki Kojiro kills AggonyDuck
Destroyer of Hope kills ByzantineKnight
Dutch_guy investigates no one
Silver Rusher protects Seamus Fermanagh
After the previous round I was worried that I had inadvertently been partial to the mafia. I was afraid that they might win a lopsided victory because of my mistakes. Fortunately, this was the round that proved my fears were unfounded; my slight errors didn’t matter as much as I’d thought. Even before the kills were posted, many were saying that Sasaki had to die.
FYI, as many have noted, a detective for a Mafioso is a good trade. I fully understood the wisdom of the townspeople in executing both Sasaki and Kagemusha, just to make sure the trade was complete.
I waited the full 24 hours before posting the kills, since I wanted to give Dutch_guy more of a chance to return to the Org and due his investigative duty. Unfortunately he still wasn’t back. I was frustrated at this point; what was I to do? If I’d known DG was going inactive for such a long time, I’d never have let him be detective. It was definitely not fair to the villagers. I began to consider more seriously giving his role to another player. A random selection chose Seamus Fermanagh, but I decided to wait one more round.
Sasaki knew he’d be lynched, but continued to lie, fabricate, and manipulate, hoping to gain something positive for the mafia even in death. “Coded” messages, post edits (that others were intended to see), and constant arguing abounded. Even with Sasaki PMing me frequently, I had a hard time following his plan.
Of course, Sasaki was inevitably lynched, and I breathed a sigh of relief. Balance was restored to the force, and I hadn’t had to interfere at all. I realized that any interference would’ve been unfair anyway – if people wanted to read too much into “quoted” PMs from me, well, that was their mistake. People, don’t make too many assumptions about how the roles work, or about what sort of PMs I should send to each of them. I give out basic information on how the roles function, but there are several details in how I deal with them that you don’t know.
After two rounds, we were already down to two Mafiosi, one inactive detective, and one doctor (who continued to stand by the discredited Mafioso, Sasaki). The game could go either way.
Executed: Sasaki Kojiro
Round 3
Destroyer of Hope kills Drisos
Xiahou kills Divine Wind
Seamus Fermanagh investigates Silver Rusher
Silver Rusher protects Byzantine Mercenary
After two rounds of frenetic activity, things seemed to slow to a crawl. There was actually a fair amount of discussion, but compared to the previous two rounds things seemed dead. Having executed a Mafioso, the villagers had the initiative, but it seemed that they didn’t know what to do next – the Kagemusha/Sasaki debate had taken so much of everyone’s attention that they now seemed disoriented.
Nevertheless, two significant things happened during this round. First, prior to posting the kills, I finally made the decision to replace Dutch_guy. I wondered if I should’ve done this a turn ago, but I had still been holding out for his return (I really wanted to see what he could do as a detective).
Obviously, the decision to choose a new detective, rather than simply letting the original one die and the role disappear, proved decisive. There may be some debate concerning whether my decision was fair to the mafia or not. I believe it was, for the following reasons:
The reason I decided against giving Seamus any extra investigations was that this wouldn’t have been fair to the mafia. Having played two rounds, he had more information than he would’ve had earlier in the game.
Regardless, Seamus Fermanagh had been randomly chosen as Dutch_guy’s replacement, and I immediately PM’d him with his instructions. He graciously accepted the role and asked if he could have his predecessor’s records. Needless to say there were no such records; Seamus, now you understand why I couldn’t give you any. Seamus quickly investigated Silver Rusher and found him innocent.
The other event of significance was that Sigurd Fafnesbane named Xiahou for the first time. I have a lot of respect for Sigurd’s analyses, which tend to be simple, to the point, and surprisingly accurate. He accomplishes with simple perception what I need more complex methods to deduce. (Although in Godfather 2, his perception was sadly off.)
Xiahou did a good job of defending himself, but he wasn’t the only one in trouble – Destroyer of Hope missed voting for the second turn in a row, meaning he’d be dead if he missed one more. (Yes, I’d have upheld the law and put him to death – otherwise people would’ve wondered why and quickly deduced the truth.) I felt even better about my decision to not give Seamus any extra investigations; the mafia were in trouble.
The execution of Cowhead418 was a very close affair; he won by a margin of 6-5 over Silver Rusher, who was drawing suspicion because of his defense of Sasaki. The game would’ve turned out a bit differently, I think, if Silver had been executed.
Evil_Maniac From Mars requested to be killed by having Vogon poetry read to him. Rather than invent unique deaths for him and the other two suicides scheduled for this round, I killed them all off in the same way. (FYI, the Vogon poem was not my own invention; I found it on a random blog somewhere.)
Executed: Cowhead418
Round 4
Xiahou kills Sir Moody
Destroyer of Hope kills Crazed Rabbit
Seamus Fermanagh investigates Proletariat
Silver Rusher protects Byzantine Mercenary
Finally, Dutch_guy returned and began e-mailing me to explain himself and to ascertain the status of the situation. Apparently he’d had internet connection problems at an inopportune time and had been unable to communicate his upcoming absence to me. I was forced to tell him that he’d been replaced, and to ask him not to comment in the thread, as he was in a unique position to know who was telling the truth in the Sasaki/Kagemusha debate. Of course, had he been present from the beginning, the outcome of that feud surely would’ve been very different.
Destroyer of Hope chose to kill Crazed Rabbit by bombarding his house with a cannon. I “creatively interpreted” this as a howitzer; hopefully DoH didn’t mind too much. In addition, I warned DoH about how close he was to suicide; he showed up and saved himself with a vote.
This round’s discussion began with the rather humorous spectacle of the town’s detective and doctor going after each other. While this was funny, I think the fact that Silver was drawing so much suspicion actually saved him – by now it’s a well-known fact that the mafia tend to leave the highly-suspicious alive to draw votes.
In the end it was Sigurd Fafnesbane who was executed, even though only three people had voted for him. For whatever reason not many showed up to vote this round.
Executed: Sigurd Fafnesbane
Round 5
Xiahou kills Peasant Phill (blocked)
Destroyer of Hope kills Glaucus
Seamus Fermanagh investigates discovery1
Silver Rusher protects Peasant Phill
This round was definitely the turning point, as the mafia sustained blow after blow. First, Silver Rusher had apparently devised a system to eliminate players that the mafia would not bother to kill. It worked, as he successfully predicted the attack on Peasant Phill. Obviously, the failed attack made it clear that Peasant Phill was innocent.
In addition, Seamus Fermanagh revealed himself as the detective, and also revealed the results of his investigations. It may be questioned whether this was the right time to do so, as he hadn’t actually investigated any of the mafia yet. However, I believe he made the right choice – there’s no question that the ploy worked perfectly. By piecing together the results from his investigations with several other well-grounded assumptions, the townspeople were able to significantly narrow down the field of suspects.
It was Seamus who sealed the fate of the mafia with this post:
Despite this, Csar still gathered a number of votes, and for a while it looked like a tie would develop. However, once all the votes were counted, Destroyer of Hope had won by a 4-3 margin. It was partially his decision to vote for Reenk Roink that doomed him; voting for that guy gets you a certain retaliation vote.
However, in addition to this, it was apparently GeneralHankerchief who convinced Csar and discovery1 to vote for DoH. He was apparently busy convincing others of the suspicion he had developed back in round 1, using PMs and the chat room. I was, of course, oblivious to this, and was mildly surprised when the last few votes were cast for DoH.
Executed: Destroyer of Hope
Round 6
Xiahou kills Reenk Roink and Seamus Fermanagh
Seamus Fermanagh investigates Xiahou
Silver Rusher protects Peasant Phill
As I predicted, Seamus correctly investigated Xiahou. Meanwhile, Xiahou killed Reenk Roink, suspecting him to be the doctor, and Seamus Fermanagh. I thought Silver would protect Seamus, but of course he was trying a different game. First, he made this post:
Of course, none of that ultimately mattered much. After Seamus investigated Xiahou, I gave him several hours to reveal his results before posting the kills. In doing this, I was following GeneralHankerchief’s model. I think that next time, I won’t do this, but will instead give the detectives the results of their investigations at the same time I post the kills, meaning essentially that they won’t get an investigation in the same round that they are killed. To me, this just seems a little fairer to the mafia.
Once Seamus posted the results of his investigation, the votes for Xiahou started coming in steadily, and he was executed by unanimous vote, bringing an end to the mafia after six rounds of play.
Executed: Xiahou
Game Analysis
All in all, I think this was a fun and successful game, even though it ended a little quicker than I thought it would or wanted it to. I had a great time narrating the story, which is to me the most fun part of any game of mafia, whether I’m playing with a live group or on a forum like this.
I think that the downfall of the mafia was due to the following factors:
In addition, in hindsight I can only conclude that the game was not quite balanced to begin with. The townspeople on this forum are getting much more clever, and a 59% chance of victory with random lynches is not good enough. I should have shot for 65-70%, I think. A better configuration might’ve been 3 Mafiosi, 1 detective, and 3 doctors, which raises the percentage to 65%. I will note that the percentages I’ve cited here don’t tell the whole story, as all of my simulations assumed the detectives would reveal themselves immediately upon investigating a Mafioso. Therefore, the extra detective gave the town an additional edge that my simulations couldn’t account for.
If I were to host another game, I would make the following changes:
Congratulations to everyone who played, and especially to the villagers, their detectives, and their doctors, who really pulled together and gave their mafia foes a good kicking! Special thanks are in order for Sasaki Kojiro, Xiahou, Destroyer of Hope, Kagemusha, Seamus Fermanagh, Silver Rusher, and Big King Sanctaphrax for staying active and filling their roles well! I’d also like to thank everyone who participated in the discussion for making this a fun game for all!
I apologize for the lateness of this write-up. Still, have a read – many of you know most of what I have to say, but it should still be educational and entertaining.
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Pre-Game
As soon as the player list was finalized, I started playing around with different game configurations using my self-programmed computer simulation. I actually felt that GeneralHankerchief’s games slightly favored to the villagers, and I was hoping to rectify the situation. Eventually I determined that, in a game configuration with 31 totals players, 3 mafiosi, 2 detectives working independently, and 2 doctors (also working independently), the mafia would win about 59% of the time if the people lynched randomly. I also ran the simulation using GH’s traditional configuration of 2 mafiosi and 1 detective. Surprisingly, that configuration gave the mafia approximately the same chance (60%) of winning (give or take depending on the number of players). I shrugged, figured things were fairly well balanced after all, and proceeded to select players to fill the roles.
The Mafia:
Xiahou, Destroyer of Hope, and Sasaki Kojiro were the randomly selected villains. This immediately raised several questions in my mind. Sasaki Kojiro always draws a great deal of suspicion simply by being himself and posting a lot; how long would he survive in this game? Destroyer of Hope also has a tendency to get lynched (though I still think this is more due to his name than his behavior). Would he be active, and how long would he survive? Xiahou, of course, was a total unknown – I was glad that a new player had gotten a role, but unnerved by the fact that he was using invisible mode, a sure way to draw suspicion. Fortunately, however, he is notably active in other forums. Suffice it to say that I didn’t exactly fancy this team’s chances.
The Detectives:
Kagemusha and Dutch_guy were chosen as the original detectives. I chuckled when I saw Dutch_guy’s name appear. His ability to pinpoint the mafia in previous games has been freakishly accurate, and while I know that some of that was luck, I wondered how dangerous he would be to the mafia in this game. What I didn’t realize was that he had just gone inactive, and would ultimately prove to be a non-factor.
I was a little disappointed to see Kagemusha’s name appear (no offense, Kage, but it seems you always get a role of some kind). I’d rather it had gone to someone else (perhaps a new player), but I stuck with my random name generation system.
The Doctors:
I was glad to see Silver Rusher finally get a role, even though the role of doctor is not particularly powerful. This turned out to be a fateful selection, as Silver did have a significant impact near the end of the game. Big King Sanctaphrax was also chosen.
Round 1
Sasaki Kojiro kills Big King Sanctaphrax
Xiahou kills GeneralHankerchief
Kagemusha investigates Sasaki Kojiro
Dutch_guy investigates no one
Big King Sanctaphrax protects Sasaki Kojiro
Silver Rusher protects discovery1
This is the round that I will remember as the round in which I found out all of the problems with the rules as I had set them up. Chief among them: I never should’ve allowed people to quote their PMs from me.
In the early discussion, even before the kills were posted, Sasaki Kojiro was getting a lot of suspicion for turning on invisible mode. A big discussion developed concerning the practice of watching people’s online profiles and trying to sniff PMs. Was it a fair tactic? Could it be used effectively to identify the mafia? Could it be defeated, and if so, how?
Here’s a history of the tactic, as I understand it:
- It was first attempted in Mafia II, in which it resulted in the execution of an innocent person. As a result of this, GH, in his commentary, advised people to be careful when using it.
- As one of the mafia in Mafia III, I anticipated the tactic and attempted to defeat it by writing my messages in another editor, then quickly copying and pasting them into the PM window. This seemed to work; neither GG nor I were ever accused for this reason.
- It was part of my method for identifying Masy in Mafia IV, but it wasn’t the whole thing. (Yep, now you know part of the story.)
Sasaki, however, had seen me watching profiles in Mafia IV, and chose to defeat the tactic using invisible mode. As a result, he was drawing a lot of suspicion and it was partially my fault. I became worried about two things: 1) That Sasaki would make himself too suspicious and be lynched in the first round. 2) That all or most of the mafia would be identified too quickly using similar tactics to what I had used in Mafia IV.
To try to counteract this, I instructed the mafia to communicate their kills to me using e-mail. I had already suggested that they communicate with each other using e-mail or some other outside method.
Unfortunately, I hadn’t originally given them my e-mail address. As a result of this, Destroyer of Hope was nailed by GeneralHankerchief through profile watching right in the beginning of the game, before any of my measures could take effect. Still, it would be a while before he would be lynched.
I’ll also say that after I switched to e-mail communication with the mafia, Sasaki Kojiro and Destroyer of Hope were pretty faithful in using that mode of communication. Xiahou continued to use PMs exclusively, but it didn’t matter since he was using invisible mode.
Nevertheless, Kagamusha investigated Sasaki, presumably because of his suspicious behavior. When the mafia later sent me their kills, they specified their two targets, but didn’t initially tell me who was killing who. They also told me to use a generic method, such as a gun or knife – nothing specific.
For several reasons, when I gave Kagemusha the “guilty” verdict, I didn’t give him the identity of Sasaki’s victim. Here is why:
- I was thinking it might be best to only give detectives the identity of past victims, rather than current victims. This keeps all the PMs independent of each other in each round – my responses to the detectives don’t have to wait for instructions from the mafia. Violating this principle can lead to weird situations when the mafia change their minds on who to kill (I believe this has happened before in other games).
- As I said, I didn’t really know the identity of Sasaki’s victim. I shouldn’t have let that slide, but I did, thinking it wouldn’t matter this early.
Anyway, Big King Sanctaphrax revealed (post-mortem) himself as a doctor. I hadn’t forbidden this; I sort of wish I would have. It’s inconsistent for doctors to be the only people who can reveal their roles after death. I just hadn’t thought of that situation; it will be a rule in any future games I do that no one is allowed to reveal their role after death. However, I figured it didn’t matter much; after all, it was a stroke of luck for the mafia to take out a doctor so quickly.
At first there were a bunch of abstaining votes, until I re-introduced the “No Lynch” option, and everyone started choosing that. It looked like no one would be lynched, until out of the blue Kage decided to reveal himself.
Suddenly all hell broke lose. GH pointed out that if my PM to Kage was authentic, I would’ve given him the identity of Sasaki’s victim. Crap, I thought, my description of what information I give to detectives was just ambiguous enough that people might think that. Why the heck did I allow people to quote my PMs?
I couldn’t say anything immediately about this, as it would’ve meant certain death for Sasaki. But Sasaki posted a convincing forgery of a PM from me, using elements from his actual PM. Many chose to believe him, and voted for Kage. Suddenly the balance was swinging in favor of the mafia, and once again it was partially my fault. I didn’t know what to do about this.
Dutch_guy could’ve shown up and turned the tide, as he would’ve been able to decisively identify Sasaki’s PM as a forgery. However, it was at this point that I realized he was AWOL. With only one active detective, the townspeople were hamstrung.
Even so, AggonyDuck went with his instincts and voted Sasaki. Once again this guy’s instincts were spot-on; maybe we should listen to him more. A few of you actually followed him, and because of irregularities in my schedule, the voting period was longer than normal.
In the end, though, it made no difference, and Kagemusha was lynched. Due to Sasaki’s scheming, the mafia had begun on a fantastic note: one doctor and one detective eliminated, and the other detective remaining inactive. At first I had been worried about another decisive villager victory; now I was worried about precisely the opposite.
Executed: Kagemusha
Round 2
Sasaki Kojiro kills AggonyDuck
Destroyer of Hope kills ByzantineKnight
Dutch_guy investigates no one
Silver Rusher protects Seamus Fermanagh
After the previous round I was worried that I had inadvertently been partial to the mafia. I was afraid that they might win a lopsided victory because of my mistakes. Fortunately, this was the round that proved my fears were unfounded; my slight errors didn’t matter as much as I’d thought. Even before the kills were posted, many were saying that Sasaki had to die.
FYI, as many have noted, a detective for a Mafioso is a good trade. I fully understood the wisdom of the townspeople in executing both Sasaki and Kagemusha, just to make sure the trade was complete.
I waited the full 24 hours before posting the kills, since I wanted to give Dutch_guy more of a chance to return to the Org and due his investigative duty. Unfortunately he still wasn’t back. I was frustrated at this point; what was I to do? If I’d known DG was going inactive for such a long time, I’d never have let him be detective. It was definitely not fair to the villagers. I began to consider more seriously giving his role to another player. A random selection chose Seamus Fermanagh, but I decided to wait one more round.
Sasaki knew he’d be lynched, but continued to lie, fabricate, and manipulate, hoping to gain something positive for the mafia even in death. “Coded” messages, post edits (that others were intended to see), and constant arguing abounded. Even with Sasaki PMing me frequently, I had a hard time following his plan.
Of course, Sasaki was inevitably lynched, and I breathed a sigh of relief. Balance was restored to the force, and I hadn’t had to interfere at all. I realized that any interference would’ve been unfair anyway – if people wanted to read too much into “quoted” PMs from me, well, that was their mistake. People, don’t make too many assumptions about how the roles work, or about what sort of PMs I should send to each of them. I give out basic information on how the roles function, but there are several details in how I deal with them that you don’t know.
After two rounds, we were already down to two Mafiosi, one inactive detective, and one doctor (who continued to stand by the discredited Mafioso, Sasaki). The game could go either way.
Executed: Sasaki Kojiro
Round 3
Destroyer of Hope kills Drisos
Xiahou kills Divine Wind
Seamus Fermanagh investigates Silver Rusher
Silver Rusher protects Byzantine Mercenary
After two rounds of frenetic activity, things seemed to slow to a crawl. There was actually a fair amount of discussion, but compared to the previous two rounds things seemed dead. Having executed a Mafioso, the villagers had the initiative, but it seemed that they didn’t know what to do next – the Kagemusha/Sasaki debate had taken so much of everyone’s attention that they now seemed disoriented.
Nevertheless, two significant things happened during this round. First, prior to posting the kills, I finally made the decision to replace Dutch_guy. I wondered if I should’ve done this a turn ago, but I had still been holding out for his return (I really wanted to see what he could do as a detective).
Obviously, the decision to choose a new detective, rather than simply letting the original one die and the role disappear, proved decisive. There may be some debate concerning whether my decision was fair to the mafia or not. I believe it was, for the following reasons:
- By his absence, Dutch_guy deprived Kagemusha of support that surely would’ve helped him survive.
- Also by his absence, Dutch_guy deprived the townspeople of two valuable investigations. I decided not to give the new detective any extra investigations simply because he’d been chosen late.
The reason I decided against giving Seamus any extra investigations was that this wouldn’t have been fair to the mafia. Having played two rounds, he had more information than he would’ve had earlier in the game.
Regardless, Seamus Fermanagh had been randomly chosen as Dutch_guy’s replacement, and I immediately PM’d him with his instructions. He graciously accepted the role and asked if he could have his predecessor’s records. Needless to say there were no such records; Seamus, now you understand why I couldn’t give you any. Seamus quickly investigated Silver Rusher and found him innocent.
The other event of significance was that Sigurd Fafnesbane named Xiahou for the first time. I have a lot of respect for Sigurd’s analyses, which tend to be simple, to the point, and surprisingly accurate. He accomplishes with simple perception what I need more complex methods to deduce. (Although in Godfather 2, his perception was sadly off.)
Xiahou did a good job of defending himself, but he wasn’t the only one in trouble – Destroyer of Hope missed voting for the second turn in a row, meaning he’d be dead if he missed one more. (Yes, I’d have upheld the law and put him to death – otherwise people would’ve wondered why and quickly deduced the truth.) I felt even better about my decision to not give Seamus any extra investigations; the mafia were in trouble.
The execution of Cowhead418 was a very close affair; he won by a margin of 6-5 over Silver Rusher, who was drawing suspicion because of his defense of Sasaki. The game would’ve turned out a bit differently, I think, if Silver had been executed.
Evil_Maniac From Mars requested to be killed by having Vogon poetry read to him. Rather than invent unique deaths for him and the other two suicides scheduled for this round, I killed them all off in the same way. (FYI, the Vogon poem was not my own invention; I found it on a random blog somewhere.)
Executed: Cowhead418
Round 4
Xiahou kills Sir Moody
Destroyer of Hope kills Crazed Rabbit
Seamus Fermanagh investigates Proletariat
Silver Rusher protects Byzantine Mercenary
Finally, Dutch_guy returned and began e-mailing me to explain himself and to ascertain the status of the situation. Apparently he’d had internet connection problems at an inopportune time and had been unable to communicate his upcoming absence to me. I was forced to tell him that he’d been replaced, and to ask him not to comment in the thread, as he was in a unique position to know who was telling the truth in the Sasaki/Kagemusha debate. Of course, had he been present from the beginning, the outcome of that feud surely would’ve been very different.
Destroyer of Hope chose to kill Crazed Rabbit by bombarding his house with a cannon. I “creatively interpreted” this as a howitzer; hopefully DoH didn’t mind too much. In addition, I warned DoH about how close he was to suicide; he showed up and saved himself with a vote.
This round’s discussion began with the rather humorous spectacle of the town’s detective and doctor going after each other. While this was funny, I think the fact that Silver was drawing so much suspicion actually saved him – by now it’s a well-known fact that the mafia tend to leave the highly-suspicious alive to draw votes.
In the end it was Sigurd Fafnesbane who was executed, even though only three people had voted for him. For whatever reason not many showed up to vote this round.
Executed: Sigurd Fafnesbane
Round 5
Xiahou kills Peasant Phill (blocked)
Destroyer of Hope kills Glaucus
Seamus Fermanagh investigates discovery1
Silver Rusher protects Peasant Phill
This round was definitely the turning point, as the mafia sustained blow after blow. First, Silver Rusher had apparently devised a system to eliminate players that the mafia would not bother to kill. It worked, as he successfully predicted the attack on Peasant Phill. Obviously, the failed attack made it clear that Peasant Phill was innocent.
In addition, Seamus Fermanagh revealed himself as the detective, and also revealed the results of his investigations. It may be questioned whether this was the right time to do so, as he hadn’t actually investigated any of the mafia yet. However, I believe he made the right choice – there’s no question that the ploy worked perfectly. By piecing together the results from his investigations with several other well-grounded assumptions, the townspeople were able to significantly narrow down the field of suspects.
It was Seamus who sealed the fate of the mafia with this post:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh:
I think the 1st round of voting is more instructive. The two individuals who changed their votes to vote for Sasaki while specifically claiming a belief in Kage were the next ones murdered. For a while there, it seemed as though the discussion would swing from lynching Kage to taking out Sasaki. I think that we will probably find that 2 of the mafia (Sasaki and one other)-- and maybe all three -- voted against Kage in that first go-around. It was their only hope to get all three through the first round of voting. Since participation after one's death usually falls off, the hope would have been for Sasaki to parlay survival for himself out of the demise of Kage and his two vocal supporters -- bit of a long shot, but nicely played. If you don't have a lot of chips, you have to go "all-in" and hope for a double-up.
Current Survivors Voting Kagemusha in round #1:
Csar, Destroyer, Proletariat (I), Seamus (D), Silver Rusher (I), Xihaou
Proletariat and Silver Rusher had already been investigated, and Seamus was the detective. That left only three suspects, and GeneralHankerchief was defending Csar. Destroyer of Hope and Xiahou were the only ones left. As soon as I read that post, I knew the outcome of the game. Even if people didn’t buy into his logic, Seamus was certain to choose his next investigation correctly.I think the 1st round of voting is more instructive. The two individuals who changed their votes to vote for Sasaki while specifically claiming a belief in Kage were the next ones murdered. For a while there, it seemed as though the discussion would swing from lynching Kage to taking out Sasaki. I think that we will probably find that 2 of the mafia (Sasaki and one other)-- and maybe all three -- voted against Kage in that first go-around. It was their only hope to get all three through the first round of voting. Since participation after one's death usually falls off, the hope would have been for Sasaki to parlay survival for himself out of the demise of Kage and his two vocal supporters -- bit of a long shot, but nicely played. If you don't have a lot of chips, you have to go "all-in" and hope for a double-up.
Current Survivors Voting Kagemusha in round #1:
Csar, Destroyer, Proletariat (I), Seamus (D), Silver Rusher (I), Xihaou
Despite this, Csar still gathered a number of votes, and for a while it looked like a tie would develop. However, once all the votes were counted, Destroyer of Hope had won by a 4-3 margin. It was partially his decision to vote for Reenk Roink that doomed him; voting for that guy gets you a certain retaliation vote.
However, in addition to this, it was apparently GeneralHankerchief who convinced Csar and discovery1 to vote for DoH. He was apparently busy convincing others of the suspicion he had developed back in round 1, using PMs and the chat room. I was, of course, oblivious to this, and was mildly surprised when the last few votes were cast for DoH.
Executed: Destroyer of Hope
Round 6
Xiahou kills Reenk Roink and Seamus Fermanagh
Seamus Fermanagh investigates Xiahou
Silver Rusher protects Peasant Phill
As I predicted, Seamus correctly investigated Xiahou. Meanwhile, Xiahou killed Reenk Roink, suspecting him to be the doctor, and Seamus Fermanagh. I thought Silver would protect Seamus, but of course he was trying a different game. First, he made this post:
Originally Posted by Silver Rusher:
Yes, I believe PP has easily the best claim to innocence of all as we are actually certain he is innocent. Even though he said I was innocent, I am wary of the detective. I think Komm would have formatted his PM in the same way as BKS and SK's (remember, if he was a mafioso he would have formatted his detective PM in the same way as his mafia PM) PMs even if it was a role-switch, but that doesn't seem to be at all present in the 'PMs' he has quoted. A lot of PMs were posted, sure, but none really prove that Seamus is actually the detective. If you gave me an hour or two I could post all that up myself, no problems.
If we are to think Seamus wasn't the detective, me must also be very suspicious of Proletariat, Disco and, OK, fair enough, me. However, disco hasn't been too active here so I think it is possible to cross him off.
This wouldn't be enough to make me vote for Seamus, though. As I said before in defense of Sasaki, 'twould make far more sense to either let him be killed by the mafia (if he is detective) or wait until the lynch-or-lose is almost upon us to lynch him.
Don't believe everything you see people, it could well be lies.
This was an obvious attempt to trick the mafia into attempting to kill Peasant Phill again. Silver then sent me this PM:Yes, I believe PP has easily the best claim to innocence of all as we are actually certain he is innocent. Even though he said I was innocent, I am wary of the detective. I think Komm would have formatted his PM in the same way as BKS and SK's (remember, if he was a mafioso he would have formatted his detective PM in the same way as his mafia PM) PMs even if it was a role-switch, but that doesn't seem to be at all present in the 'PMs' he has quoted. A lot of PMs were posted, sure, but none really prove that Seamus is actually the detective. If you gave me an hour or two I could post all that up myself, no problems.
If we are to think Seamus wasn't the detective, me must also be very suspicious of Proletariat, Disco and, OK, fair enough, me. However, disco hasn't been too active here so I think it is possible to cross him off.
This wouldn't be enough to make me vote for Seamus, though. As I said before in defense of Sasaki, 'twould make far more sense to either let him be killed by the mafia (if he is detective) or wait until the lynch-or-lose is almost upon us to lynch him.
Don't believe everything you see people, it could well be lies.
Originally Posted by Silver Rusher:
Woot! My listing system worked like a treat. At least if I die I will do so with the knowledge that I managed to save 1 person. Onto my next protection, though. Hopefully, this post
(See above)
will trick the mafia into trying to kill Peasant Phill again rather than the detective or any of his innocents. (Note: just a little disclaimer, I am not trying to get Seamus lynched with this post. It serves the purpose of trying to keep Seamus alive, in fact, along with me, Proletariat and (maybe not) disco. Are the mafia stupid enough to fall for it though? We will see. I shall protect Peasant Phill again.
A fairly clever ploy by Silver, but it didn’t fool the mafia, and the town lost its detective. Actually, after Xiahou’s initial PM to me in which he specified the targets, Sasaki sent me an e-mail attempting to switch from Seamus Fermanagh and kill Silver Rusher instead. However, due to the fact that Sasaki and DoH were dead and Xiahou had stuck with PMing instead of e-mail, I wasn’t checking my e-mail at that address, and I missed his message.Woot! My listing system worked like a treat. At least if I die I will do so with the knowledge that I managed to save 1 person. Onto my next protection, though. Hopefully, this post
(See above)
will trick the mafia into trying to kill Peasant Phill again rather than the detective or any of his innocents. (Note: just a little disclaimer, I am not trying to get Seamus lynched with this post. It serves the purpose of trying to keep Seamus alive, in fact, along with me, Proletariat and (maybe not) disco. Are the mafia stupid enough to fall for it though? We will see. I shall protect Peasant Phill again.
Of course, none of that ultimately mattered much. After Seamus investigated Xiahou, I gave him several hours to reveal his results before posting the kills. In doing this, I was following GeneralHankerchief’s model. I think that next time, I won’t do this, but will instead give the detectives the results of their investigations at the same time I post the kills, meaning essentially that they won’t get an investigation in the same round that they are killed. To me, this just seems a little fairer to the mafia.
Once Seamus posted the results of his investigation, the votes for Xiahou started coming in steadily, and he was executed by unanimous vote, bringing an end to the mafia after six rounds of play.
Executed: Xiahou
Game Analysis
All in all, I think this was a fun and successful game, even though it ended a little quicker than I thought it would or wanted it to. I had a great time narrating the story, which is to me the most fun part of any game of mafia, whether I’m playing with a live group or on a forum like this.
I think that the downfall of the mafia was due to the following factors:
- The suspicion that plagued Sasaki Kojiro from the start due to previous games.
- GeneralHankerchief’s identification of Destroyer of Hope early on by watching his profile.
- My decision to replace Dutch_guy with Seamus Fermanagh in round 3 due to Dutch_guy’s inactivity.
In addition, in hindsight I can only conclude that the game was not quite balanced to begin with. The townspeople on this forum are getting much more clever, and a 59% chance of victory with random lynches is not good enough. I should have shot for 65-70%, I think. A better configuration might’ve been 3 Mafiosi, 1 detective, and 3 doctors, which raises the percentage to 65%. I will note that the percentages I’ve cited here don’t tell the whole story, as all of my simulations assumed the detectives would reveal themselves immediately upon investigating a Mafioso. Therefore, the extra detective gave the town an additional edge that my simulations couldn’t account for.
If I were to host another game, I would make the following changes:
- Doctors (and all other roles for that matter) would not be allowed to reveal their role post-mortem.
- I would disallow the practice of quoting PMs from me, in addition to outlawing the posting and use of screenshots.
- I would give the detectives the results of their investigations at the same time as I post the kills, so that they would not be allowed an investigation in the same round that they die. This would be more consistent with the original spirit of the game.
- If an individual holding a role, such as a detective or doctor, went inactive, I would not replace them at all. In hindsight I think that letting Dutch_guy’s role die with him would’ve made the game closer and more interesting.
- I would have the Mafiosi e-mailing me their kills from the very beginning. This time, I thought of it quickly, but not quickly enough.
Congratulations to everyone who played, and especially to the villagers, their detectives, and their doctors, who really pulled together and gave their mafia foes a good kicking! Special thanks are in order for Sasaki Kojiro, Xiahou, Destroyer of Hope, Kagemusha, Seamus Fermanagh, Silver Rusher, and Big King Sanctaphrax for staying active and filling their roles well! I’d also like to thank everyone who participated in the discussion for making this a fun game for all!
Nice read Kommodus.
This game can certainly lay claim to the most dramatic first round I think. Determining balance is quite tricky. You can go by percentages, but generally the detective will have a better than chance at catching a mafioso, since there's always people can be eliminated as innocent. And doc protection makes him quite powerful
In retrospect we were careless with the votes round one. Quite a few people had voted no lynch and we wanted to make sure Kage kicked the bucket. We tried to keep alive the other people who'd voted for Kage but unfortunatly that included the other doctor and the detective...I assumed the 2nd detective would have voted against me (he would have known my guilt from the pm) and we based our search around that. But it turns out Seamus wasn't the detective round 1. Oh well, it was a good game.
This game can certainly lay claim to the most dramatic first round I think. Determining balance is quite tricky. You can go by percentages, but generally the detective will have a better than chance at catching a mafioso, since there's always people can be eliminated as innocent. And doc protection makes him quite powerful
In retrospect we were careless with the votes round one. Quite a few people had voted no lynch and we wanted to make sure Kage kicked the bucket. We tried to keep alive the other people who'd voted for Kage but unfortunatly that included the other doctor and the detective...I assumed the 2nd detective would have voted against me (he would have known my guilt from the pm) and we based our search around that. But it turns out Seamus wasn't the detective round 1. Oh well, it was a good game.
Excellent job, Kommodus! This game was certainly interesting, and I'm glad I played such a big part even though I died in the first round.
And just remember, future mafiosi:
And just remember, future mafiosi:
As an additional FYI, not only did I retain(and will continue to doso) my invisible mode, but I also would click open the 'send PM' window and immediately click open a new tab viewing any of the boards I usually haunt here which allowed me to compose my PM in peace even if a mod was watching profiles. I decided against emails since I knew my PMs were appropriately stealthed and that PMs were more likely to get thru faster than an email.
In hindsight, I think killing GH so early was probably a mistake for the simple reason that it proved him innocent. BKS was clearly a good choice though.
Also, after I phoned in the kills for Seamus/Reenk, I was unfortunately unavailable to see the aftermath where I was revealed as an investigation target... once I heard what was going on, I hoped to change my targets- but it was too late.
In hindsight, I think killing GH so early was probably a mistake for the simple reason that it proved him innocent. BKS was clearly a good choice though.
Also, after I phoned in the kills for Seamus/Reenk, I was unfortunately unavailable to see the aftermath where I was revealed as an investigation target... once I heard what was going on, I hoped to change my targets- but it was too late.
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