The Godfather, Part 2 [Concluded]

**GeneralHankerchief** · 10-24-2006, 21:43

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Vote:GeneralHankerchief

For starting what could be another cycle of "I abstain, because there isn't enough information to go on, because everyone else abstained, because there isn't enough information to go on, because..."

I thought you said that it was in the mafia's best interests to lynch someone in the first round.

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 10-24-2006, 21:48

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I thought you said that it was in the mafia's best interests to lynch someone in the first round.

Last game it was. There were more power roles than mafia. This game there are more mafia than power roles.

Simple math, people!

**Don Corleone** · 10-24-2006, 22:10

I'll grant you all that I'm the rookie, but all we know for certain is that neither Lemur nor UltraWar were in the mafia.

Sasaki, with all due respect, you're wrong. The odds of us lynching an innocent person are: (26-3)/(26). Twenty six total players and three guilty ones, right?

So if we have a vote, the odds of us nailing an innocent person, at this stage, are 88.5%. The odds of us actually catching the Godfather are 3.8% and the odds of us catching one of his mafioso are 7.7%.

Personally, I think we need to watch events unfold a little more. Let's see what Divine Wind has to say, and whether his detective happens to get anything.

Detective, remember, the Godfather himself comes back as innocent, so your odds are only 7.7% of getting a mafioso, not the combined 11.5%.

Vote: Abstain

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 10-24-2006, 22:15

Nononononono not this argument again. Don, there will never be a time when we will have a more than 50% chance of lynching mafia. If we never lynch anybody till we are down to 9 people, one wrong lynch means the mafia win, and in that scenario we only have a 1/3 chance of lynching a mafioso. We have to take our chances, it's the only way we'll ever win.

Remember, the mafia get to kill 2 innocents every time we abstain. Abstaining this round gives us nothing to go on next round. It's perfect for mafia.

Unvote:GeneralHankerchief

Vote:Don Corleone

**Don Corleone** · 10-24-2006, 22:34

Your point about not gaining additional information is somewhat valid. You're making the point that we have to try to keep swinging blindly until we see the night murders drop to 1 (and hopefully, the mafia aren't purposely picking the same one, just to throw us off the trail). That part I understand, and I suppose you're right. If all 26 abstain, 2 people die, we just wash, rinse and repeat at 24, 22 etc. The logic is the same at 14 as it is at 26. I'm with you here.

BUT I don't get why once we're down to 9, a single incorrect lynching guarantees mafia victory. The Godfather cannot create new henchmen each night, correct? So if we take out one of his and one of ours, it's down to the GF and one mafiosa, and seven of us (only one dies). Next round, we lynch the wrong guy and another murder, 5 of us, the GF and the mafiosa. We could still catch both of them at that point. Sure, it makes our job harder, but it could be done...

In any case, you're right. We have to start somewhere. To be perfectly fair, I'm going to find a random number generator and pick a number between 1 and 26. Let's see what the randomizer deals up...(sidenote, many times this is how I pick my faction and even playing era in MTW). Number 11: sorry buddy. Sure glad #7 didn't come up.

Unvote: Abstain

Vote: Crazed Rabbit.

**Proletariat** · 10-24-2006, 22:55

Can anyone name off the top of their head a few of the more vocal Lemur detractors from the old games? I know he seemed a bit unpopular there at times. Maybe Lemur getting killed so quickly in this game has to do with some personal history.

**Sir Moody** · 10-24-2006, 23:06

Vote: Don Corleone

voting via random number generators is just so wrong

**Xiahou** · 10-25-2006, 00:28

Originally Posted by Proletariat

Can anyone name off the top of their head a few of the more vocal Lemur detractors from the old games? I know he seemed a bit unpopular there at times. Maybe Lemur getting killed so quickly in this game has to do with some personal history.

I'd also like to know this. I think it's quite likely that the victims have some history with their mafioso killers.

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 10-24-2006, 23:22

Originally Posted by Don Corleone

BUT I don't get why once we're down to 9, a single incorrect lynching guarantees mafia victory. The Godfather cannot create new henchmen each night, correct? So if we take out one of his and one of ours, it's down to the GF and one mafiosa, and seven of us (only one dies). Next round, we lynch the wrong guy and another murder, 5 of us, the GF and the mafiosa. We could still catch both of them at that point. Sure, it makes our job harder, but it could be done...

9 left, lynch one that's 8, 2 die at night that's six, town won't be able to lynch a mafioso since they don't have a majority, 2 die again at night, townie lynched, mafia win.

In any case, you're right. We have to start somewhere. To be perfectly fair, I'm going to find a random number generator and pick a number between 1 and 26. Let's see what the randomizer deals up...(sidenote, many times this is how I pick my faction and even playing era in MTW). Number 11: sorry buddy. Sure glad #7 didn't come up.

Unvote: Abstain

Vote: Crazed Rabbit.

2 things

1. Random number generator won't work because everyone will end up with 1 or 2 votes.

2. No discussion. Mafia can just random vote someone and then sit back and watch. It seems you've found yet another way for the mafia to avoid attention.

Don, the real point of round 1 is not to lynch a mafioso (highly doubtful), but to get the mafia to post so that later in the endgame we can find evidence in these pages.

**Dutch_guy** · 10-24-2006, 23:40

Some interesting discussions going on here, do note how at least three fourth of all the people playing hasn't said anything yet - so claiming someone's a mafioso for the sole reason of using a randomizer is a bit overenthusiastic don't you think ?

As for now, I don't really know what to go on, as said, tons of people haven't said anything yet and chances are high one of those is a mafioso.

So for now, Vote:Abstain.

It's getting late here now, so I'm off to bed.

**Cowhead418** · 10-25-2006, 00:35

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

9 left, lynch one that's 8, 2 die at night that's six, town won't be able to lynch a mafioso since they don't have a majority, 2 die again at night, townie lynched, mafia win.

2 things - I'm not disagreeing with you here about lynching, I'm just making a point:

1. If we lynch a mafioso, that means that only ONE person will be killed the next night, not two.

2. If we lynch the Godfather, we win. We don't need to execute his henchmen to achieve victory.

For now, I Vote: Drisos for using some sketchy reasoning. If you noticed, Divine Wind did not use the Snowman in Cosa Nuova and was innocent despite the change in behavior. I agree with Sasaki here. We have to get everyone into the discussion. If the mafia barely have to talk, then they can avoid attention. This is what happened in the last Godfather - there was very little discussion so I easily avoided suspicion. The last time I tried to promote discussion I got lynched, but I urge the town to not allow the lurkers or one-liners to get-by so easily this time around.

**Crazed Rabbit** · 10-28-2006, 23:20

Well the mafia have admitted that none of them have been killed off yet, and that going to one kill after Drisos was a ruse. This may be an attempt to portray the people who voted for Drisos as innocent. As such, here is a list of people who voted for Drisos the first and second rounds of voting:

Cowhead418