The Godfather, Part 2 [Concluded]

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 10-25-2006, 22:29

That was quite gruesome.

**Don Corleone** · 10-25-2006, 22:35

But quite imaginitive!

So, around this time tomorrow night is the next night phase, and we'll find out who's the next mafia kills? Okay, I got it. The 'night' and 'day' were throwing me. So each 'night' happens every other real day, with 'day' thrown in every other day, on the off day, as well?

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 10-25-2006, 22:37

Originally Posted by Don Corleone

But quite imaginitive!

So, around this time tomorrow night is the next night phase, and we'll find out who's the next mafia kills? Okay, I got it. The 'night' and 'day' were throwing me. So each 'night' happens every other real day, with 'day' thrown in every other day, on the off day, as well?

And then there are "leap days" in which the amount of time in the day is reduced by a certain amount according to the percentage of the moon that is currently visible. Today is Wednesday, right?

**Don Corleone** · 10-25-2006, 22:39

Today is Wednesday. Our next lynching will take place on Friday, and there will be mafia kills on Thursday and Saturday, if I understand the game time correctly.

Sorry mafia, guess you're not screwing with us or being lazy.

**Major Robert Dump** · 10-26-2006, 00:39

Ok, had I remembered before leaving for work this morning I would have possibly withdrew my vote and requested everyone abstain from a lynching...sorry Divine Wind, it's just that I don't like the role of chief or really even thinks it serves a purpose, particularly if the chief is always replaced. (is it random or a vote?) Nonetheless, investigating the Chief should always be the detectives first priority, whoever he may be.

I realize this argument has been had in all the other games before, as well as this game, but lets see if I understand this:

-Last round, our chances of lynching an innocent is 22:3, including a lynch of the detective
-We will lose two innocents per round regardless, yet by lynching we guarantee we lose 3, taking into account the 22:3 curve
-I know it makes for boring play, but until we have a smaller pool of innocents, our chances of a good lynching is not increased...if we lose 2 per round our chances will go 20:3/18:3/16:3/14:3...if we lose 3 per round we will taper more quickly to the kill zone at 19:3/16:3/13:3/11:3 but we will also more quickly reach the point where the mafia have the upperhand because of their voting advantage. This, of course, is all assuming our lynchings up to that point have all been bad lynchings. In the case of a good lynching, which we wouldn't know until the next morning after the mob kills are posted, our raw chances of lynching the right person would go down, but our voting and guilt by association reasoning would give us the upperhand.

This is my first time in the game, and I'm quite confused TBH. Someone needs to hurry up and do something suspicious so I can make a lynch vote with good conscious, if there is such a thing.

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 10-26-2006, 00:55

We could abstain for 3 rounds. 6 innocents would die.

or

We could vote for 2 rounds. 4 innocents would die, + 2 more would probably die, but we have the chance at hitting a mafioso.

Therefore it is to our advantage to lynch, even without taking into consideration that rounds without discussion are useless. Also, in Mafia IV we lynched a mafioso round two on the same kind of weak evidence we lynched Drisos with this game.

**Csargo** · 10-26-2006, 01:13

Sasaki's right (oh how I hate to say that

) not lynching someone each round is not smart on our part. Even if we do kill some people we still have a chance of killing a mafioso or even the Godfather. I think it is best to lynch someone each round for if we don't we may end up screwed in the end which will not be good.

**Major Robert Dump** · 10-26-2006, 01:17

I see that voting for oneself does not constitute suicide, otherwise Ignoramus would be dead. If he truly wants out of the game, I don't understand why he has already signed up for another mafia game in the making.

If he plans on being inactive and we lynch him, it could be viewed as a wasted lynching if we look back a week from now and see he isn't playing anymore.

On the other hand, it could be a poor attempt at a bluff

**Don Corleone** · 10-26-2006, 01:25

Well, I've got several ideas running through my head... several angles I've noticed in the posts so far. I'm just curious about the correlation between 'thinking out loud' and winding up on the hitlist. My guess is relatively high. Well, so be it. It'll give you guys a peek into who the mafia may be.

I saw three trends in the first round that disturbed me:

-Proletariat and Xiahou starting that red herring theory of a revenge killing on Lemur in the first round. Both are too intelligent to really entertain such a plot that is so obvious, no Godfather would possibly entertain.

-I'm surprised that despite the tone of the discussion, bordering on equating not posting to suspicious behavior, several didn't post and several more posted a one line at best. But obviously 7 people aren't in the mafia...

-Is it just me or is Sasaki trying very hard to lead the group. To where...?

Just remember, I sleep with one eye open, one foot on the floor and one hand on the trigger of my 12 gague....

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 10-26-2006, 03:56

Originally Posted by Major Robert Dump

I realize this argument has been had in all the other games before, as well as this game, but lets see if I understand this:

-Last round, our chances of lynching an innocent is 22:3, including a lynch of the detective
-We will lose two innocents per round regardless, yet by lynching we guarantee we lose 3, taking into account the 22:3 curve
-I know it makes for boring play, but until we have a smaller pool of innocents, our chances of a good lynching is not increased...if we lose 2 per round our chances will go 20:3/18:3/16:3/14:3...if we lose 3 per round we will taper more quickly to the kill zone at 19:3/16:3/13:3/11:3 but we will also more quickly reach the point where the mafia have the upperhand because of their voting advantage. This, of course, is all assuming our lynchings up to that point have all been bad lynchings. In the case of a good lynching, which we wouldn't know until the next morning after the mob kills are posted, our raw chances of lynching the right person would go down, but our voting and guilt by association reasoning would give us the upperhand.

The basic mathematics of this are correct, lynchings do enhance the "hitting percentage" at the risk of the mafia getting to the point of no return more quickly. That's the basic tension of the game.

However, in this internet version, unless players are forced to vote -- and support and discuss same -- there is no hope of discovering the mafia save by the detective who can reveal only half as fast as the mafia can eliminate. The odds of the detective identifying all 3 mafiosi prior to getting whacked are longer than I'd like to rely on. Lynchings force commentary and voting patterns which can then be used to make targeted lynchings -- at least that's the hope.

It's also why inactives who don't vote at all get removed by the GM and why folks who don't engage in discussion can find themselves on the wrong end of a lynching.