Ok, I can do the following and still follow my own theory:
Unvote: Masy
Vote: Seamus Fermanagh
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Ok, I can do the following and still follow my own theory:
Unvote: Masy
Vote: Seamus Fermanagh
Last edited by Husar; 11-06-2006 at 01:07.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
All these little things add up. You keep ignoring the big ones though. What about that bullited list showing how the pm was fake? And why did GH say Ignoramus was guiltyOriginally Posted by Myrddraal
Because you do something suspicious that would be a careless mafia action. My not talking to Masy would be careless mafia action, but it isn't suspicious on its own.Yes it was careless. It's funny isn't it, how whenever GH or SR or I do something careless, it's 'proof' that we're mafia, but when you do something careless, you try to dismiss it as such.
And yes, voting off a mafioso is in the benefit of the town. But Seamus isn't a mafioso...you'd better defend yourself with more vigour m8, the mafia is looking like they'll walk away with this one.
Vote Count:
Seamus 4 (Myrddraal, Crazed Rabbit, Sigurd, Husar)
Csar 1 ( Masy)
Sigurd 1 (Csar)
Not voting (Don corleone, Proletariat, Seamus, Divine Wind(can't vote))
Not voting: 4
Last edited by Sasaki Kojiro; 11-06-2006 at 01:20.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Look, do you really think I would have gone on about Seamus's innocence if we were mafia together, given that everyone thought I was guilty? That's like mafia 101
Also, I thought he was guilty until Sigurd awkwardly tried to frame him back in round 4. That was what clued me in to his innocence.
More dead people need to post. The current players are too heavily weighted towards mafia, it distorts things.
Last edited by Sasaki Kojiro; 11-06-2006 at 01:36.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
That makes sense. Isolating the Godfather would certainly help the town.
About the situation, I agree with Husar that we either have Sasaki - Seamus- and Godfather together or GH - Myrd - CR working together. I'm not entirely sure whom to believe at this point. On one hand, it seems like Sasaki is trying to manipulate and deceive the town (he is notoriously good at this), but on the other hand it looks like GH and Myrd are pulling off an extremely clever ruse (Sasaki has pointed out several flaws in their 'evidence').
We won't find out anything from Myrd's status at this point. If he is the detective, then his ability to find the Godfather is gone. And now that both mafia grunts are dead, he is no longer a threat to the mafia - meaning that they can keep him alive and keep us wondering. But if he is in the mafia, then he obviously won't be killed and we are still left wondering.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
I'm trying to be evenly balanced now, next in line is someone from the other supicious group.
Except if someone can come in and give me any definitive proof why that would be a wrong thing to do.
The system works like this: we get Seamus now, so if Masy is the GF, then he is alone, then CR next, if he was GF, game ends, if not, Myrd is alone, if not, Masy, game ends or not, then Myrd is the only option left or we are screwed anyway.
2nd edit, reminds me of IF...THEN...ELSE, hehe
Last edited by Husar; 11-06-2006 at 02:13.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Uh, Husar, as Seamus is mafia, wouldn't that mean I was not mafia?
These are the four our two detectives have listed as possibly guilty:
Csar
Masy
Seamus
Husar
Seamus is going to be offed, leaving three. Personally, I don't think you're guilty Husar.
CR
Ja Mata, Tosa.
The poorest man may in his cottage bid defiance to all the forces of the Crown. It may be frail; its roof may shake; the wind may blow through it; the storm may enter; the rain may enter; but the King of England cannot enter – all his force dares not cross the threshold of the ruined tenement! - William Pitt the Elder
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
You not mentioning Masy is one of the reasons Masy almost never came up as a possible mafioso which would be very clever mafia action.
I was in bed already and actually stood up again only to say that
You didn't get my system I fear.
I set up two likely mafia groups:
- Masy, Sasaki, Seamus
- CR, GH, Myrd
at the moment we have:
- Masy,Sasaki, Seamus
- CR,GH, Myrd
we would then go on eliminating a possible thread of each group like this:
- Masy,Sasaki,Seamus
- CR,GH, Myrd
- Masy,Sasaki,Seamus
-CR,GH, Myrd
-Masy,Sasaki,Seamus
-CR,GH, Myrd
-Masy,Sasaki,Seamus
-CR,GH,Myrd
But since I should be in bed already, I don't have the time to take mafia kills into consideration(you only come bofore Myrd because he is a possible detective).
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Husar's posts are a good attempt at analysis of the situation. He is making good attempts at reasonable groupings and trying to articulate a "whack 'em both" strategy similar to the rationale used in Kommodus' Cosa Nouva to resolve the dispute between Kagemusha and Sasaki. Seems a little WW1-ish in its casualties approach, but might work.
If the Sasaki-Seamus-??? is the real threat the situation will flow as follows:
Sasaki is already dead (though not resting in peace). Seamus dies in round 7. This would leave the following alive:
Crazed Rabbit -- targeted by Seamus and therefore presumed innocent; listed as "probably innocent" by GH/Myrdraal
Csar -- on suspect list
Divine Wind -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal. but can't vote.
Don Corleone -- listed as "probably innocent" by GH/Myrdraal
Husar -- on suspect list
Masy -- on suspect list
Myrdraal -- detective
Proletariat -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal.
Sigurd -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal.
This leaves only 3 names on the hot list, with CR and Don C to follow. 7 voters would remain, with only the godfather to off for a townie win. Even stopping to lynch CR first should provide the townies with enough rounds to win, since the mafia wouldn't have enough time to make the requisite kills for control before this short list is finished. Myrdraal will be investigating, but can't be expected to find the Godfather solo.
Source = GH's Reveal
If the GH-Myrdraal-CRis the real threat the situation will flow as follows:
Hanky is dead, CR follows after Seamus.
Since Rabbit, under this theory, can only be the GF, we have a townie win at that point. If it isn't a win, then you're relatively certain that the other theory is correct and have both the numbers and a short target list to weed through.
Sources = numerous Sasaki posts; Seamus' vote analysis post labeling Crazed Rabbit is a prime suspect.
However, I do not believe this bloodily simple strategy will work, despite the sound approach supporting it.
As you know, and largely don't believe, I claim innocence. Sasaki, despite his CR inspired sig, is on the correct path, if a bit too vociferous in his approach.
Now, since, following Sasaki's challenges (and my stunning stupidity in failing to eliminate the 2nd detective immediately in a game with no doctors) Myrdraal was so kind as to list me as "guilty" -- with an impressive list of kills (nice touch that) -- the guilt of General Hankerchief and Myrdraal was, for me, confirmed. I complement them on a beautifully brought off hoax, it was a nice touch including a believeable twist (despite Sasaki's gripes, I would agree it qualifies nicely, even if it is fiction).
It is possible that Myrdraal is the godfather and one of the lynchees was a mafioso who we got lucky and took out, but I don't think so. I don't think that even Hanky and Myrdraal would take that much of a risk. So the question is, did Hanky list the real godfather as "probably innocent," knowing that this would seem less threatening if his plan backfired or would he go for broke and list his godfather as innocent to shield them more fully? Let's review things.
Analyzing the potential "godfather:"
Crazed Rabbit: posts of modest length, not a lot of fluff. Voted for Drisos in round one (Drisos known by subsequent double deaths to be innocent). No named votes again until he's part of a small plurality for lynching Sasaki. Votes to kill Iggy. Skips one vote then votes for my death in two successive rounds (since I'm innocent, this bugs me, but I have cast suspicion on him and several others think me hinky now, following Myrdraal). Verdict: Distinct possibility.
Divine Wind: Hard to say from the voting -- since he would have known from early on that his votes would not count. He voted for Sigurd when he thought he could vote earlier, and it was his "vote" for Hanky that prompted Hanky's reveal...by happenstance? Hard to gauge. Verdict: Possible.
Don Corleone: drew flack early for overly newbie behavior. Posted and voted actively throughout -- no low profile. A difficult stance to take as a godfather. Voted for Drisos in runoff, then Phil, Sasaki, Iggy, EMFM, and lastly for Hanky. Since I know now that Hanky was guilty, and since Don changed his vote BACK to Hanky when he needn't, have, this clears him in my eyes. Verdict: Unlikely.
Proletariat: very low profile throughout, but this is her normal style. Voted: Abstain, no vote, Husar, no vote, Iggy, EMFM, Hanky. Her last minute -- literally -- vote switch prevented a tie and doomed GH, so for the same reasons as Don above, I view her as innocent. If she's mafia, then she's the donna of another family and the twist will kill us all. Verdict: Very unlikely.
Sigurd: hit-or-miss participation, though posts signficantly when active. Very prominent role in the votes on: Kommodus and Iggy, both of whose deaths were assured to all of us as a means to end the game. Voted: Abstain, Abstain, Kommodus, (Don C), Ignoramus, Proletariat, no vote, Seamus Fermanagh. All of his votes seem to be for lynching the innocent, and despite the fact that he was at his most active during the Kommodus-Sasaki-Iggy stretch, he voted late on the round where Sasaki was tapped. Verdict: Quite Possible.
Csar, Husar, Masy: On the "indeterminate" list for Hanky, my gut says they are just townies. A case could be made against any of them based on voting record, but Husar voting to take out Hanky would suggest innocence. Of all of them, Csar voted to lynch both known innocents and joined in the small plurality against Sasaki. Verdict: Csar = some possibility, Husar = unlikely, Masy = small possibility.
Also note: since I do not believe the Reveal, I do not believe the twist they proffer either. This means, the twist has yet to be revealed. Is there a hidden detective....possible, but not revealed as yet. Is there a 2nd godfather....also possible. Maybe the godfather had investigation powers to hunt for the detective...and found him. We'll see.
I actually think that our detective has been dead a while. So, don't expect any other reveals. Myrdraal will keep "investigating" for you, as he can't be murdered, but I say we should go for the GF slots and not waste time.
As to the twist:
since three mafiosi were introduced in the prologue along with the Guttering van, this means that at least one mafia-townie is acting with them. Unfortunately, that tells us little to guess the "twist" as there would have to be at least one from the town. Too many possibilites in Silver's creative mind to guess.
Vote: Crazed Rabbit as the slightly more likely of my 3 prime suspects.
Note to Silver: I, being innocent, would vehemently protest, lash out, and fight back to stop my unwarranted lynching. Let your write-up reflect this if it comes to it.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Well isn't it convenient? All the 'support' Seamus has for me being guilty comes from him and Sasaki - who is a mafioso. A flim flam of shoddy reasoning that indicts the detectives (ironically, Seamus said he was waiting for confirmation from Myrd- he got it and now believes them both guilty) and all those they listed as innocent, while saying the three suspicious ones are not guilty.
Make no mistake; after Seamus is gone, it will be down to the wire for the mafia. We have three choices (Csar, Husar, Masy) and they will have still only one kill and nine people to kill.
They (Sasaki and Seamus) will do their best to misdirect as much as they can, in hopes that we as the town waste lynches, so that the Godfather can slowly kill us off.
For a while now they've been hyping a supposed mafia team of me, GH, and Myrd, (though earlier Sasaki was saying Sigurd was mafia. I suppose they want to get me lynched so they can take out one of their biggest...'critics' as it were) in order to try and get that into the subconcious, in a way, of the town. Recall Sigurd's expert maneuverings in Sasaki's first mafia game.
Also, from an earlier post of mine:
This makes Husar more suspicuous than Masy, who in turn is more suspicious than Csar (unless the mafia decided to set him up as being innocent by voting for Sasaki).Sasaki Kojiro - 4 votes (GeneralHankerchief, Csar, Crazed Rabbit, Don Corleone)
Abstain - 3 (Dutch_guy, Myrddraal,Evil_Maniac From Mars)
Don Corleone - 2 votes (Xiahou, Husar)
Sigurd Fafnesbane - 1 vote (Divine Wind)
GeneralHankerchief - 1 vote (Sasaki Kojiro)
theRTWGuru- 1 vote (Cowhead418)
No Lynch - 1 vote (theRTWGuru)
No vote - 7 (Masy,Big King Sanctaphrax, Proletariat, Seamus Fernanagh,Ignoramus,Peasant Phill,Destroyer of Hope)
Edit: re-examination of the voting record for the Sasaki lynch round reveal Csar voted for Sasaki when he had only two votes, and when he could have easily voted for Don C. This makes Husar the most suspicious.
CR
Last edited by Crazed Rabbit; 11-06-2006 at 06:36.
Ja Mata, Tosa.
The poorest man may in his cottage bid defiance to all the forces of the Crown. It may be frail; its roof may shake; the wind may blow through it; the storm may enter; the rain may enter; but the King of England cannot enter – all his force dares not cross the threshold of the ruined tenement! - William Pitt the Elder
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Unless you are the Godfather and Sasaki was innocent.
Isn't it interesting to see how I often thought of you as innocent because you seemed to use the same logic as I did and even joined my vote? And now that I come up with you as a possible mafioso, you start to "see the light" and name me as most likely mafia?
Then again, I didn't expect anyone to say "go ahead and lynch me" either...
I might not even live after the next kills, but I would gladly join Sasaki and make the discussion more colourful from the grave.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
If Mydraal/General Hank's detective story was real, 2 questions remain:
1) Why wasn't Myrdraal killed this round?
Either: A-Because killing him would prove his innocence and really point the finger at Seamus & Sasaki or
B- In fact he's in the mafia.
Among these, I go with "A". I really do suspect Sasaki more than just about anyone else, and the post about going back and investegating Sasaki after he was already dead... unnessary complication. First rule of a good lie is keep it as simple as possible. They could have just said they investegated him in round 1-3.
2) Why hasn't Myrdraal posted any new results? Wouldn't have gotten a report last night?
He claims his role as detective is over, but is it? Was it a rule that both detectives have to be alive for either to be able to investegate? If so, this gives the mafia an incredible advantage, and the game becomes almost unwinnable for the townies. I don't think so.
So, I'm torn. I agree with Husar's theory of one lynch from each trinity, alternating, but I'm going for a different member in the trinity, just because I can't bring myself to think that my dear friend Seamus would be lying to me all this time... What's more, if that trinity does hold to be the real killers, then I suspect Seamus and Sasaki were selected as the hitmen, which leaves:
Unvote: No-lynch.
Vote: Masy.
Last edited by Don Corleone; 11-06-2006 at 15:49.
"A man who doesn't spend time with his family can never be a real man."
Don Vito Corleone: The Godfather, Part 1.
"Then wait for them and swear to God in heaven that if they spew that bull to you or your family again you will cave there heads in with a sledgehammer"
Strike for the South
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Now look here GH, I believe that many of Sasaki's arguments are weak at best, but there's one thing I'd like an explanation for. Yes, I'm going to bring this up again:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Neither of them made an effort to prevent Ignoramus from being lynched, even though according to GH they had found him innocent
Originally Posted by General Hankerchief
#4: That is a lie. We never investigated Ignoramus, and Sigurd was only found innocent after Ig was lynched.
You refused to give an explanation for this earlier, claiming that it would only give Sasaki an opportunity to make up some BS about how your excuse was poor. Well, I want to hear your excuse anyway - what does it matter what Sasaki thinks or says? Iggy was lynched in round 4 (the round you took off) with nary a comment from you or M.Originally Posted by General Hankerchief
Round 1: Dutch_guy (innocent)
Round 2: Divine Wind (CoP) (innocent)
Round 3: Ignoramus (innocent)
Round 4: Sasaki Kojiro (just executed) (guilty)
Round 5: Sigurd Fafnesbane (innocent)
Round 6: Proletariat (innocent)
Now I can understand you guys declining to protect him; such a move might've given away your identities to the mafia, as it's been mentioned as a detective-tell. What I can't understand is your claim to have never investigated him, after originally claiming that you did. It's an apparent contradiction I can't resolve.
Did you make a mistake in one of your posts? If so, your list of careless errors would be getting, er, a bit long.
P.S. My pet theory for the time being is that there's another twist here besides the two detectives. To counterbalance the apparently pro-town twist, Silver may have introduced a pro-mafia twist as well. Something along the lines of allowing them to recruit a third mafioso to replace their fallen comrade, perhaps?
Last edited by Kommodus; 11-06-2006 at 16:22.
If you define cowardice as running away at the first sign of danger, screaming and tripping and begging for mercy, then yes, Mr. Brave man, I guess I'm a coward. -Jack Handey
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
When this is all wrapped up Don, you will find that "B" was correct.
I agree with you that Sasaki has built a "rep" and that in these games most of us trust him about as far as we could comfortably spit a rat, but:
Were you a GF picking minions, would you take Sasaki? Bright, yes. Glib, yes. But also a player whose posting style guarantees he'll come under fire earlier rather than later. A person who can get lynched nearly as fast as the Lemur based solely on the play of previous games? A person who's only mafia strategy would have to be white noise? And then, to round out the team, this GF picks me? The guy who posts vote counts, trends, and activity scores? Okay, 10 out of 10 for style, but minus several million points for good thinking.
As to their lie, Hanky and Myrdraal are not in any way shape or form stupid. If you are going to lie and pull it off you need to:
1. be a sociopath like W.J. Clinton so that you actually believe your own lie. This is not workable, however, unless you're face-to-face.
2. lie by nudging one or two things off the truth path so that so much of it reads/feels true that the small changed slip by unnoticed. There was nothing small about Hanky's reveal.
3. pump out a lie Goebbels-style, as in the bigger the better. This strategy gains its credibility from a belief on the part of the viewer that nobody would be able to make something like this up -- "ts too big for that." And its not like he didn't have time. Hanky took off virtually all of round 4 to "recover" from his spat with Sasaki and didn't do more than bandwagon on the EMFM round. He nearly brought it off without a hitch.
Had Hanky survived, Husar would be dead, Cowhead murdered, I would still be the lynchee of the moment -- sorry, Myrdraal and I missed the GF, but here's the other mafiosi, and then the intact team would have murdered 2 for the clinch. It was a good plan, and was only partly foiled by Prole's last moment vote switch.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
If Mydraal/General Hank's detective story was real, 2 questions remain:
1) Why wasn't Myrdraal killed this round?
Either: A-Because killing him would prove his innocence and really point the finger at Seamus & Sasaki or
B- In fact he's in the mafia.
Among these, I go with "A". I really do suspect Sasaki more than just about anyone else, and the post about going back and investegating Sasaki after he was already dead... unnessary complication. First rule of a good lie is keep it as simple as possible. They could have just said they investegated him in round 1-3.
2) Why hasn't Myrdraal posted any new results? Wouldn't have gotten a report last night?
He claims his role as detective is over, but is it? Was it a rule that both detectives have to be alive for either to be able to investegate? If so, this gives the mafia an incredible advantage, and the game becomes almost unwinnable for the townies. I don't think so.
So, I'm torn. I agree with Husar's theory of one lynch from each trinity, alternating, but I'm going for a different member in the trinity, just because I can't bring myself to think that my dear friend Seamus would be lying to me all this time... What's more, if that trinity does hold to be the real killers, then I suspect Seamus and Sasaki were selected as the hitmen, which leaves:
Unvote: No-lynch.
Vote: Masy.Now Don, that part I quoted was Myrddraal from a post in which he stated the following
For reference, this was the post.
Last edited by Dutch_guy; 11-06-2006 at 16:54.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
actually if i was the gf i would pick sas... not because i think he can keep himself alive but because when the inevitable sas landslide starts you and your mafia henchman can jump on it - its an almost certain alibi especially if sas continues to post in a manor that makes him look more and more guilty but not confirming itWere you a GF picking minions, would you take Sasaki? Bright, yes. Glib, yes. But also a player whose posting style guarantees he'll come under fire earlier rather than later. A person who can get lynched nearly as fast as the Lemur based solely on the play of previous games? A person who's only mafia strategy would have to be white noise? And then, to round out the team, this GF picks me? The guy who posts vote counts, trends, and activity scores? Okay, 10 out of 10 for style, but minus several million points for good thinking.
well thats how id do it but what do i know im mafia bait
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Well, a good godfather strategem would be to pick both a high profile poster, and at the same time, a somewhat less high profile poster. So, in a way Sasaki would be a good choice again.actually if i was the gf i would pick sas... not because i think he can keep himself alive but because when the inevitable sas landslide starts you and your mafia henchman can jump on it - its an almost certain alibi especially if sas continues to post in a manor that makes him look more and more guilty but not confirming it
well thats how id do it but what do i know im mafia bait
Last edited by Dutch_guy; 11-06-2006 at 17:05.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
This is almost too much to follow....
Okay, I've now gotten to a point where I suspect all, even the dead. Throwing everybody back into the potential candidate pool, I have to rank them:
Still alive: very suspicious.
Lynched: moderately suspicious, unless you're initials are S & K, then you're all but guaranteed to be mafia.
Murdered: Unless the mafia were really taking extreme chances, I have to favor the murder victims.
In this regard, Dutch_Guy's comments carry a lot more weight with me then most of the other ones. Kommodus and other undead posters, having been lynched, must be taken with a grain of salt. Now that doesn't mean that Dutch_Guy is correct, merely that he's honest, that is HE believes what he's saying.
My defense of Seamus above would be a syllogism, as I find CR equally as dear a friend and by voting for Masy, I make it less likely that Seamus will be lynched. What's more, a vote for Masy is a vote for that team.
Unvote: Masy
Vote: Seamus
Forgive me, Seamus.If I find that Dutch-Guy is framing you, in cahoots with Myrdraal, I'll find a way to make it up to you.
"A man who doesn't spend time with his family can never be a real man."
Don Vito Corleone: The Godfather, Part 1.
"Then wait for them and swear to God in heaven that if they spew that bull to you or your family again you will cave there heads in with a sledgehammer"
Strike for the South
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
How is it I'm framing Seamus ? I was merely reposting one of the most important posts of this session, and it was to answer one of your questions.
Forgive me, Seamus.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
You know, in the absence of GH's response to the Ignoramus paradox, I'm beginning to change my mind about this whole thing. I take back everything I've said about the "stupid" townspeople in this game. Whoever they are, the mafia have done an excellent job with their deception. In all honesty I haven't followed this thread with as much attention as I might've had I remained alive.
If GH and Myrd are mafia, they have truly cooked up an elaborate hoax. Let's have a look at the objections Sasaki has made to the claim.
GH responded that he and Myrd were simply used to doing investigations together by that point. This is entirely possible, but if so, it's a careless mistake that allowed the mafia a chance to attack the "reveal." This strikes me as uncharacteristic of GH.
True AFAIK, but I've learned not to read too much into this sort of thing. Just because the phone number is American doesn't mean SR couldn't have used it. American TV/stories making their way to Britain and all that.
This doesn't carry much weight to me either. I still think the PM could've been interpreted to mean they both had to be revealed at the same time.
It's not so much this point itself, but GH's response to it that provides Sasaki's strongest point. He does appear to contradict himself in claiming that he didn't investigate Iggy after originally claiming that he did.
The question is, why? If he were telling a lie, I would've thought he'd have tried harder to keep it consistent. But then again, could this really be just another careless mistake on the part of the (former) detective? Something's wrong here.
This argument is a non-factor; it's this sort of weak, hollow argument that makes me suspicious of Sasaki.
Again, this argument is hollow. Sasaki is not the arbiter of what qualifies as a twist. Besides, it could be only part of the twist - as I stated earlier, there may be a pro-mafia twist that counterbalances it.
The only thing is... Silver stated in the opening post that opposing the mafia there would be "a detective." He would know this would be interpreted as only one. It does strike me as odd that he would deliberately mislead the town that way.
This doesn't mean much either, since it's entirely possible that GH believed he had enough votes to warrant it. Still, that would be yet another careless mistake from the "detective." GH, I'm sure you realize how this looks - like perhaps you were just waiting for the right moment to spring this hoax?
Add to this Myrddraal's possible mistake in accusing Seamus of being guilty:
Sasaki pointed out the obvious "before being executed" snafoo. A mistake on Silver Rusher's part? I wouldn't put it past him, since copy-and-paste errors have given him problems in the past. But in addition to this, the quoted PM doesn't follow the formatting/style of GH's quoted PM indicating Sasaki's guilt. The colors/font weights are off. More careless inconsistencies? It's starting to stretch credulity.
Then we have a relationship of Sasaki to Seamus. Sasaki was bringing up suspicions of Seamus earlier in the game; only later did he switch and start saying Seamus was innocent. Were the original accusations a ploy to provide cover for his fellow mafioso? I doubt it; that is a dangerous strategy for the mafia to pursue. Or is the twist that Seamus was recruited later in the game? Or are both truly innocent?
There are two ominous signs in Silver Rusher's latest kills.
If there are four mafiosi left, then after an incorrect lynch and a mafia kill, there would be four mafiosi and four townspeople. If there are actually two mafia grunts left, then they could still kill two people, and the mafia would outnumber the villagers, giving them a victory. Divine Wind's warning rings true.
Yet how could there really be four mafiosi left? The game was supposed to start with only three, and it seems likely that at least one has been lynched (either Sasaki or GeneralHankerchief). Could the "twist," whatever it is, have even more to do with this?
So now I've been confused by both the mafia and by Silver Rusher himself. I think it will take his end-game revelations to make sense of this.
P.S. If I were still alive, I'd probably pick Crazed Rabbit as the Godfather. He's definitely on the side of GH and Myrddraal, whose credibility is looking a little tattered. But there's a good chance I'm wrong about this. This is why I try to avoid the usual analysis methods and go for something numerical; hopefully I'll have another go at that next game.
Last edited by Kommodus; 11-06-2006 at 19:29.
If you define cowardice as running away at the first sign of danger, screaming and tripping and begging for mercy, then yes, Mr. Brave man, I guess I'm a coward. -Jack Handey
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
I didn't say you were. I said IF you were....Clearly, I cannot know that until the game has been resolved.How is it I'm framing Seamus ? I was merely reposting one of the most important posts of this session, and it was to answer one of your questions.
"A man who doesn't spend time with his family can never be a real man."
Don Vito Corleone: The Godfather, Part 1.
"Then wait for them and swear to God in heaven that if they spew that bull to you or your family again you will cave there heads in with a sledgehammer"
Strike for the South
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
I'm afraid you are wrong. I am neither mafia nor godfather. You are right about me being on the side of GH and Myrd.
Why? I believe Sasaki to be mafia; they have been held at one kill per night ever since he got killed. Had they been able to kill two per night and done so, they would have been much closer to winning. This is the main point of my innocence. His continued involvement and the arguments he makes are mostly hollow and designed to cause useless lynches.
If you want proof of how I act as a mafia, check out Sasaki's mini-game, and compare that to how I acted as a detective in Mafia III.
You say, with some evidence, that GH and Myrd have a slightly tattered credibility. But compare that with Sasaki, who throughout the game has thrown out accusations of who is the mafia. It's interesting to watch them change as time passes.
CR
Ja Mata, Tosa.
The poorest man may in his cottage bid defiance to all the forces of the Crown. It may be frail; its roof may shake; the wind may blow through it; the storm may enter; the rain may enter; but the King of England cannot enter – all his force dares not cross the threshold of the ruined tenement! - William Pitt the Elder
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
True, however I find implying I might be framing anyone bad enough as it is
Common knowledge after quite a few mafia games is that a good player (be it a mafia member, detective or townie) is able to keep on posting in a same style - or change it if there is a need for it.
I'm simply saying that people learn, and I doubt that were you a mafia member you'd act the same as you did back then.
Last edited by Dutch_guy; 11-06-2006 at 20:10.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Would they really have wanted to prove me innocent though? They'd probably be lynched by now if they had killed two people that night. I practically forced them to kill only one. The fact that there was only one kill doesn't prove my guilt or my innocence
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Seamus was originally on my secondary suspect list, along with Myrddraal and Don C. Sigurd was originally on my primary list and has been acting extremely suspiciously, so when he attempted to frame Seamus at the same time as he framed Ignoramus (the claim was that ignoramus had "accidently" sent the pm to sigurd instead of Seamus) and there were other murmurs of suspicion cast his way I knew he was innocent. Crazed Rabbits pursuit of him and Myrddraal s poorly fabricated pm confirm this.
Crazed Rabbit wouldn't bother arguing against Husar's plan if the game was going to end after this round. The twist must be something else.
He must be enjoying this no end.So now I've been confused by both the mafia and by Silver Rusher himself. I think it will take his end-game revelations to make sense of this.
Last edited by Sasaki Kojiro; 11-06-2006 at 20:29.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Probably.
Irrelevant; in Godfather 1 GeneralHankerchief and Co. started this ploy as early as the second round and still won. The mafia are pretty close to winning here as well, after just six rounds. Is it more important to kill quickly, or to successfully deceive? You be the judge.
I myself pointed out that most of his arguments are hollow and false-sounding. You don't have to remind me.
And that sounds about like the sort of thing a mafioso would appeal to.
That's about par for the course for Sasaki. He accuses/votes for everyone in turn, hoping to get responses that will yield clues. Of course, that could be just a cover - deliberately acting the same way he always does, that is.
What I can't figure out is why, if GH and M are detectives, they left so many openings through which their claim could be attacked. They'd have to do some pretty careless things to leave this many holes in their story. Most of Sasaki's arguments against them are weak, true, but some are not.
Basically, if they're detectives, they aren't exactly doing a bang-up job. (No offense GH and M; you may be doing great jobs as mafia!) I'm still waiting to hear a credible response to the Ignoramus puzzle.
If you define cowardice as running away at the first sign of danger, screaming and tripping and begging for mercy, then yes, Mr. Brave man, I guess I'm a coward. -Jack Handey
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
meh, I guess I'll leave out the weaker arguments next time. I put them in their for additional effect, but it seems they've just discredited me and allowed the mafia to ignore the stronger points.
I honestly thought the phone number thing was very convincing though.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
YOU are not.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Upon my death, the town census will read as follows:
CR, Csar, DW, Don C, Husar, Masy, Myrdraal, Prole, Sigurd.
Divine Wind, by role, cannot vote.
Therefore, you will have 8 voters.
If there were 4 mafia and Seamus is innocent, it is reasonable to assume at least 1 is dead (Sasaki or Hanky). The three remaining could double kill, leaving you with three mafiosi and three townies. The game is then over (3-3 tie, no lynch, add 2 murders, done), unless Divine Wind is one of the mafiosi and you can still manage a 3-2 vote. Even then, you'd have to get it right every time with no slip ups or you're toast. I'd rate this one 90/10 mafia favor.
If there were 3 mafia and Seamus is innocent, it is reasonable to assume at least 1 is dead (Sasaki or Hanky). This is a challenge for the mafia, since they are still limited to one kill and the numbers would be 5-2. This leaves a two rounds to get the GF or his henchie (otherwise its 2 murders, 2 lynches, mafia lynches remaining voter, mafia lynches CoP) -- but still provides the mafia a chance to bluster and obfuscate while weeding the numbers. This is 50/50 town v mafia.
Your only strong scenario is if I am mafia, since that leaves you with a 7-1 advantage over the GF. At one murder per swat, the GF has to survive three rounds of voting while doing all the murders -- a lot tougher. Town wins 70/30 here.
Should you let me live?
If I'm the 4th mafiosi, leaving me alive would still leave only 2 remaining -- and 1 kill to cope with -- odds of winning very similar to the 3 mafia/Seamus innocent scenario above, with one additional (admittedly somewhat chancy) shot at the godfather. Remember, even if Myrdraal IS the consumate detective, I cannot be the godfather.
If I'm the 3rd mafiosi, leaving me alive changes NEITHER the number of mafia votes you'll be facing nor the number of kills, but provides you with an additional shot at the godfather.
Ultimately, I don't think you improve your odds of winning by killing me, even if I were guilty. And, since I am not mafia, I am absolutely certain of this.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Re: Ignoramus paradox.
I claim game fatigue. Believe it if you want, but it is the truth. Ignoramus was in fact investigated in that round, but during my fifteen zillionth defense against Sasaki's attacks, I just honestly forgot that we investigated him. That investigation was a pretty minor one anyway, as it was the round where Sigurd accused Kommodus. Nothing else of note really happened, and Myrd and I didn't want to fall in the trap of investigating solely based on posts. Here's pretty much how our discussion before the investigation went:
Myrd: "I don't know, Ignoramus has been acting weird. Want to investigate him?"
GH: "Well, he's acted like that in previous games, but why not? It's good cover anyway."
Satisfied?
EDIT:
I was actually the first person to vote for EMFM. So don't try that argument.
Last edited by GeneralHankerchief; 11-06-2006 at 21:47.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
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