Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Look, do you really think I would have gone on about Seamus's innocence if we were mafia together, given that everyone thought I was guilty? That's like mafia 101
Also, I thought he was guilty until Sigurd awkwardly tried to frame him back in round 4. That was what clued me in to his innocence.
More dead people need to post. The current players are too heavily weighted towards mafia, it distorts things.
Last edited by Sasaki Kojiro; 11-06-2006 at 01:36.
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
I'm trying to be evenly balanced now, next in line is someone from the other supicious group.Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Except if someone can come in and give me any definitive proof why that would be a wrong thing to do.
The system works like this: we get Seamus now, so if Masy is the GF, then he is alone, then CR next, if he was GF, game ends, if not, Myrd is alone, if not, Masy, game ends or not, then Myrd is the only option left or we are screwed anyway.
2nd edit, reminds me of IF...THEN...ELSE, hehe
Last edited by Husar; 11-06-2006 at 02:13.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Uh, Husar, as Seamus is mafia, wouldn't that mean I was not mafia?
These are the four our two detectives have listed as possibly guilty:
Csar
Masy
Seamus
Husar
Seamus is going to be offed, leaving three. Personally, I don't think you're guilty Husar.
CR
Ja Mata, Tosa.
The poorest man may in his cottage bid defiance to all the forces of the Crown. It may be frail; its roof may shake; the wind may blow through it; the storm may enter; the rain may enter; but the King of England cannot enter – all his force dares not cross the threshold of the ruined tenement! - William Pitt the Elder
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Husar's posts are a good attempt at analysis of the situation. He is making good attempts at reasonable groupings and trying to articulate a "whack 'em both" strategy similar to the rationale used in Kommodus' Cosa Nouva to resolve the dispute between Kagemusha and Sasaki. Seems a little WW1-ish in its casualties approach, but might work.
If the Sasaki-Seamus-??? is the real threat the situation will flow as follows:
Sasaki is already dead (though not resting in peace). Seamus dies in round 7. This would leave the following alive:
Crazed Rabbit -- targeted by Seamus and therefore presumed innocent; listed as "probably innocent" by GH/Myrdraal
Csar -- on suspect list
Divine Wind -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal. but can't vote.
Don Corleone -- listed as "probably innocent" by GH/Myrdraal
Husar -- on suspect list
Masy -- on suspect list
Myrdraal -- detective
Proletariat -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal.
Sigurd -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal.
This leaves only 3 names on the hot list, with CR and Don C to follow. 7 voters would remain, with only the godfather to off for a townie win. Even stopping to lynch CR first should provide the townies with enough rounds to win, since the mafia wouldn't have enough time to make the requisite kills for control before this short list is finished. Myrdraal will be investigating, but can't be expected to find the Godfather solo.
Source = GH's Reveal
If the GH-Myrdraal-CRis the real threat the situation will flow as follows:
Hanky is dead, CR follows after Seamus.
Since Rabbit, under this theory, can only be the GF, we have a townie win at that point. If it isn't a win, then you're relatively certain that the other theory is correct and have both the numbers and a short target list to weed through.
Sources = numerous Sasaki posts; Seamus' vote analysis post labeling Crazed Rabbit is a prime suspect.
However, I do not believe this bloodily simple strategy will work, despite the sound approach supporting it.
As you know, and largely don't believe, I claim innocence. Sasaki, despite his CR inspired sig, is on the correct path, if a bit too vociferous in his approach.
Now, since, following Sasaki's challenges (and my stunning stupidity in failing to eliminate the 2nd detective immediately in a game with no doctors) Myrdraal was so kind as to list me as "guilty" -- with an impressive list of kills (nice touch that) -- the guilt of General Hankerchief and Myrdraal was, for me, confirmed. I complement them on a beautifully brought off hoax, it was a nice touch including a believeable twist (despite Sasaki's gripes, I would agree it qualifies nicely, even if it is fiction).
It is possible that Myrdraal is the godfather and one of the lynchees was a mafioso who we got lucky and took out, but I don't think so. I don't think that even Hanky and Myrdraal would take that much of a risk. So the question is, did Hanky list the real godfather as "probably innocent," knowing that this would seem less threatening if his plan backfired or would he go for broke and list his godfather as innocent to shield them more fully? Let's review things.
Analyzing the potential "godfather:"
Crazed Rabbit: posts of modest length, not a lot of fluff. Voted for Drisos in round one (Drisos known by subsequent double deaths to be innocent). No named votes again until he's part of a small plurality for lynching Sasaki. Votes to kill Iggy. Skips one vote then votes for my death in two successive rounds (since I'm innocent, this bugs me, but I have cast suspicion on him and several others think me hinky now, following Myrdraal). Verdict: Distinct possibility.
Divine Wind: Hard to say from the voting -- since he would have known from early on that his votes would not count. He voted for Sigurd when he thought he could vote earlier, and it was his "vote" for Hanky that prompted Hanky's reveal...by happenstance? Hard to gauge. Verdict: Possible.
Don Corleone: drew flack early for overly newbie behavior. Posted and voted actively throughout -- no low profile. A difficult stance to take as a godfather. Voted for Drisos in runoff, then Phil, Sasaki, Iggy, EMFM, and lastly for Hanky. Since I know now that Hanky was guilty, and since Don changed his vote BACK to Hanky when he needn't, have, this clears him in my eyes. Verdict: Unlikely.
Proletariat: very low profile throughout, but this is her normal style. Voted: Abstain, no vote, Husar, no vote, Iggy, EMFM, Hanky. Her last minute -- literally -- vote switch prevented a tie and doomed GH, so for the same reasons as Don above, I view her as innocent. If she's mafia, then she's the donna of another family and the twist will kill us all. Verdict: Very unlikely.
Sigurd: hit-or-miss participation, though posts signficantly when active. Very prominent role in the votes on: Kommodus and Iggy, both of whose deaths were assured to all of us as a means to end the game. Voted: Abstain, Abstain, Kommodus, (Don C), Ignoramus, Proletariat, no vote, Seamus Fermanagh. All of his votes seem to be for lynching the innocent, and despite the fact that he was at his most active during the Kommodus-Sasaki-Iggy stretch, he voted late on the round where Sasaki was tapped. Verdict: Quite Possible.
Csar, Husar, Masy: On the "indeterminate" list for Hanky, my gut says they are just townies. A case could be made against any of them based on voting record, but Husar voting to take out Hanky would suggest innocence. Of all of them, Csar voted to lynch both known innocents and joined in the small plurality against Sasaki. Verdict: Csar = some possibility, Husar = unlikely, Masy = small possibility.
Also note: since I do not believe the Reveal, I do not believe the twist they proffer either. This means, the twist has yet to be revealed. Is there a hidden detective....possible, but not revealed as yet. Is there a 2nd godfather....also possible. Maybe the godfather had investigation powers to hunt for the detective...and found him. We'll see.
I actually think that our detective has been dead a while. So, don't expect any other reveals. Myrdraal will keep "investigating" for you, as he can't be murdered, but I say we should go for the GF slots and not waste time.
As to the twist:
since three mafiosi were introduced in the prologue along with the Guttering van, this means that at least one mafia-townie is acting with them. Unfortunately, that tells us little to guess the "twist" as there would have to be at least one from the town. Too many possibilites in Silver's creative mind to guess.
Vote: Crazed Rabbit as the slightly more likely of my 3 prime suspects.
Note to Silver: I, being innocent, would vehemently protest, lash out, and fight back to stop my unwarranted lynching. Let your write-up reflect this if it comes to it.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Well isn't it convenient? All the 'support' Seamus has for me being guilty comes from him and Sasaki - who is a mafioso. A flim flam of shoddy reasoning that indicts the detectives (ironically, Seamus said he was waiting for confirmation from Myrd- he got it and now believes them both guilty) and all those they listed as innocent, while saying the three suspicious ones are not guilty.
Make no mistake; after Seamus is gone, it will be down to the wire for the mafia. We have three choices (Csar, Husar, Masy) and they will have still only one kill and nine people to kill.
They (Sasaki and Seamus) will do their best to misdirect as much as they can, in hopes that we as the town waste lynches, so that the Godfather can slowly kill us off.
For a while now they've been hyping a supposed mafia team of me, GH, and Myrd, (though earlier Sasaki was saying Sigurd was mafia. I suppose they want to get me lynched so they can take out one of their biggest...'critics' as it were) in order to try and get that into the subconcious, in a way, of the town. Recall Sigurd's expert maneuverings in Sasaki's first mafia game.
Also, from an earlier post of mine:
This makes Husar more suspicuous than Masy, who in turn is more suspicious than Csar (unless the mafia decided to set him up as being innocent by voting for Sasaki).Sasaki Kojiro - 4 votes (GeneralHankerchief, Csar, Crazed Rabbit, Don Corleone)
Abstain - 3 (Dutch_guy, Myrddraal,Evil_Maniac From Mars)
Don Corleone - 2 votes (Xiahou, Husar)
Sigurd Fafnesbane - 1 vote (Divine Wind)
GeneralHankerchief - 1 vote (Sasaki Kojiro)
theRTWGuru- 1 vote (Cowhead418)
No Lynch - 1 vote (theRTWGuru)
No vote - 7 (Masy,Big King Sanctaphrax, Proletariat, Seamus Fernanagh,Ignoramus,Peasant Phill,Destroyer of Hope)
Edit: re-examination of the voting record for the Sasaki lynch round reveal Csar voted for Sasaki when he had only two votes, and when he could have easily voted for Don C. This makes Husar the most suspicious.
CR
Last edited by Crazed Rabbit; 11-06-2006 at 06:36.
Ja Mata, Tosa.
The poorest man may in his cottage bid defiance to all the forces of the Crown. It may be frail; its roof may shake; the wind may blow through it; the storm may enter; the rain may enter; but the King of England cannot enter – all his force dares not cross the threshold of the ruined tenement! - William Pitt the Elder
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Unless you are the Godfather and Sasaki was innocent.
Isn't it interesting to see how I often thought of you as innocent because you seemed to use the same logic as I did and even joined my vote? And now that I come up with you as a possible mafioso, you start to "see the light" and name me as most likely mafia?
Then again, I didn't expect anyone to say "go ahead and lynch me" either...
I might not even live after the next kills, but I would gladly join Sasaki and make the discussion more colourful from the grave.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
If Mydraal/General Hank's detective story was real, 2 questions remain:
1) Why wasn't Myrdraal killed this round?
Either: A-Because killing him would prove his innocence and really point the finger at Seamus & Sasaki or
B- In fact he's in the mafia.
Among these, I go with "A". I really do suspect Sasaki more than just about anyone else, and the post about going back and investegating Sasaki after he was already dead... unnessary complication. First rule of a good lie is keep it as simple as possible. They could have just said they investegated him in round 1-3.
2) Why hasn't Myrdraal posted any new results? Wouldn't have gotten a report last night?
He claims his role as detective is over, but is it? Was it a rule that both detectives have to be alive for either to be able to investegate? If so, this gives the mafia an incredible advantage, and the game becomes almost unwinnable for the townies. I don't think so.
So, I'm torn. I agree with Husar's theory of one lynch from each trinity, alternating, but I'm going for a different member in the trinity, just because I can't bring myself to think that my dear friend Seamus would be lying to me all this time... What's more, if that trinity does hold to be the real killers, then I suspect Seamus and Sasaki were selected as the hitmen, which leaves:
Unvote: No-lynch.
Vote: Masy.
Last edited by Don Corleone; 11-06-2006 at 15:49.
"A man who doesn't spend time with his family can never be a real man."
Don Vito Corleone: The Godfather, Part 1.
"Then wait for them and swear to God in heaven that if they spew that bull to you or your family again you will cave there heads in with a sledgehammer"
Strike for the South
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
When this is all wrapped up Don, you will find that "B" was correct.
I agree with you that Sasaki has built a "rep" and that in these games most of us trust him about as far as we could comfortably spit a rat, but:
Were you a GF picking minions, would you take Sasaki? Bright, yes. Glib, yes. But also a player whose posting style guarantees he'll come under fire earlier rather than later. A person who can get lynched nearly as fast as the Lemur based solely on the play of previous games? A person who's only mafia strategy would have to be white noise? And then, to round out the team, this GF picks me? The guy who posts vote counts, trends, and activity scores? Okay, 10 out of 10 for style, but minus several million points for good thinking.
As to their lie, Hanky and Myrdraal are not in any way shape or form stupid. If you are going to lie and pull it off you need to:
1. be a sociopath like W.J. Clinton so that you actually believe your own lie. This is not workable, however, unless you're face-to-face.
2. lie by nudging one or two things off the truth path so that so much of it reads/feels true that the small changed slip by unnoticed. There was nothing small about Hanky's reveal.
3. pump out a lie Goebbels-style, as in the bigger the better. This strategy gains its credibility from a belief on the part of the viewer that nobody would be able to make something like this up -- "ts too big for that." And its not like he didn't have time. Hanky took off virtually all of round 4 to "recover" from his spat with Sasaki and didn't do more than bandwagon on the EMFM round. He nearly brought it off without a hitch.
Had Hanky survived, Husar would be dead, Cowhead murdered, I would still be the lynchee of the moment -- sorry, Myrdraal and I missed the GF, but here's the other mafiosi, and then the intact team would have murdered 2 for the clinch. It was a good plan, and was only partly foiled by Prole's last moment vote switch.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
actually if i was the gf i would pick sas... not because i think he can keep himself alive but because when the inevitable sas landslide starts you and your mafia henchman can jump on it - its an almost certain alibi especially if sas continues to post in a manor that makes him look more and more guilty but not confirming itWere you a GF picking minions, would you take Sasaki? Bright, yes. Glib, yes. But also a player whose posting style guarantees he'll come under fire earlier rather than later. A person who can get lynched nearly as fast as the Lemur based solely on the play of previous games? A person who's only mafia strategy would have to be white noise? And then, to round out the team, this GF picks me? The guy who posts vote counts, trends, and activity scores? Okay, 10 out of 10 for style, but minus several million points for good thinking.
well thats how id do it but what do i know im mafia bait
Re: The Godfather, Part 2
If Mydraal/General Hank's detective story was real, 2 questions remain:
1) Why wasn't Myrdraal killed this round?
Either: A-Because killing him would prove his innocence and really point the finger at Seamus & Sasaki or
B- In fact he's in the mafia.
Among these, I go with "A". I really do suspect Sasaki more than just about anyone else, and the post about going back and investegating Sasaki after he was already dead... unnessary complication. First rule of a good lie is keep it as simple as possible. They could have just said they investegated him in round 1-3.
2) Why hasn't Myrdraal posted any new results? Wouldn't have gotten a report last night?
He claims his role as detective is over, but is it? Was it a rule that both detectives have to be alive for either to be able to investegate? If so, this gives the mafia an incredible advantage, and the game becomes almost unwinnable for the townies. I don't think so.
So, I'm torn. I agree with Husar's theory of one lynch from each trinity, alternating, but I'm going for a different member in the trinity, just because I can't bring myself to think that my dear friend Seamus would be lying to me all this time... What's more, if that trinity does hold to be the real killers, then I suspect Seamus and Sasaki were selected as the hitmen, which leaves:
Unvote: No-lynch.
Vote: Masy.Now Don, that part I quoted was Myrddraal from a post in which he stated the following
For reference, this was the post.
Last edited by Dutch_guy; 11-06-2006 at 16:54.
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