Re: The Godfather, Part 2
Husar's posts are a good attempt at analysis of the situation. He is making good attempts at reasonable groupings and trying to articulate a "whack 'em both" strategy similar to the rationale used in Kommodus' Cosa Nouva to resolve the dispute between Kagemusha and Sasaki. Seems a little WW1-ish in its casualties approach, but might work.
If the Sasaki-Seamus-??? is the real threat the situation will flow as follows:
Sasaki is already dead (though not resting in peace). Seamus dies in round 7. This would leave the following alive:
Crazed Rabbit -- targeted by Seamus and therefore presumed innocent; listed as "probably innocent" by GH/Myrdraal
Csar -- on suspect list
Divine Wind -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal. but can't vote.
Don Corleone -- listed as "probably innocent" by GH/Myrdraal
Husar -- on suspect list
Masy -- on suspect list
Myrdraal -- detective
Proletariat -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal.
Sigurd -- investigated and cleared by GH/Myrdraal.
This leaves only 3 names on the hot list, with CR and Don C to follow. 7 voters would remain, with only the godfather to off for a townie win. Even stopping to lynch CR first should provide the townies with enough rounds to win, since the mafia wouldn't have enough time to make the requisite kills for control before this short list is finished. Myrdraal will be investigating, but can't be expected to find the Godfather solo.
Source = GH's Reveal
If the GH-Myrdraal-CRis the real threat the situation will flow as follows:Originally Posted by General Hankerchief
Hanky is dead, CR follows after Seamus.
Since Rabbit, under this theory, can only be the GF, we have a townie win at that point. If it isn't a win, then you're relatively certain that the other theory is correct and have both the numbers and a short target list to weed through.
Sources = numerous Sasaki posts; Seamus' vote analysis post labeling Crazed Rabbit is a prime suspect.
However, I do not believe this bloodily simple strategy will work, despite the sound approach supporting it.
As you know, and largely don't believe, I claim innocence. Sasaki, despite his CR inspired sig, is on the correct path, if a bit too vociferous in his approach.
Now, since, following Sasaki's challenges (and my stunning stupidity in failing to eliminate the 2nd detective immediately in a game with no doctors) Myrdraal was so kind as to list me as "guilty" -- with an impressive list of kills (nice touch that) -- the guilt of General Hankerchief and Myrdraal was, for me, confirmed. I complement them on a beautifully brought off hoax, it was a nice touch including a believeable twist (despite Sasaki's gripes, I would agree it qualifies nicely, even if it is fiction).
It is possible that Myrdraal is the godfather and one of the lynchees was a mafioso who we got lucky and took out, but I don't think so. I don't think that even Hanky and Myrdraal would take that much of a risk. So the question is, did Hanky list the real godfather as "probably innocent," knowing that this would seem less threatening if his plan backfired or would he go for broke and list his godfather as innocent to shield them more fully? Let's review things.
Analyzing the potential "godfather:"
Crazed Rabbit: posts of modest length, not a lot of fluff. Voted for Drisos in round one (Drisos known by subsequent double deaths to be innocent). No named votes again until he's part of a small plurality for lynching Sasaki. Votes to kill Iggy. Skips one vote then votes for my death in two successive rounds (since I'm innocent, this bugs me, but I have cast suspicion on him and several others think me hinky now, following Myrdraal). Verdict: Distinct possibility.
Divine Wind: Hard to say from the voting -- since he would have known from early on that his votes would not count. He voted for Sigurd when he thought he could vote earlier, and it was his "vote" for Hanky that prompted Hanky's reveal...by happenstance? Hard to gauge. Verdict: Possible.
Don Corleone: drew flack early for overly newbie behavior. Posted and voted actively throughout -- no low profile. A difficult stance to take as a godfather. Voted for Drisos in runoff, then Phil, Sasaki, Iggy, EMFM, and lastly for Hanky. Since I know now that Hanky was guilty, and since Don changed his vote BACK to Hanky when he needn't, have, this clears him in my eyes. Verdict: Unlikely.
Proletariat: very low profile throughout, but this is her normal style. Voted: Abstain, no vote, Husar, no vote, Iggy, EMFM, Hanky. Her last minute -- literally -- vote switch prevented a tie and doomed GH, so for the same reasons as Don above, I view her as innocent. If she's mafia, then she's the donna of another family and the twist will kill us all. Verdict: Very unlikely.
Sigurd: hit-or-miss participation, though posts signficantly when active. Very prominent role in the votes on: Kommodus and Iggy, both of whose deaths were assured to all of us as a means to end the game. Voted: Abstain, Abstain, Kommodus, (Don C), Ignoramus, Proletariat, no vote, Seamus Fermanagh. All of his votes seem to be for lynching the innocent, and despite the fact that he was at his most active during the Kommodus-Sasaki-Iggy stretch, he voted late on the round where Sasaki was tapped. Verdict: Quite Possible.
Csar, Husar, Masy: On the "indeterminate" list for Hanky, my gut says they are just townies. A case could be made against any of them based on voting record, but Husar voting to take out Hanky would suggest innocence. Of all of them, Csar voted to lynch both known innocents and joined in the small plurality against Sasaki. Verdict: Csar = some possibility, Husar = unlikely, Masy = small possibility.
Also note: since I do not believe the Reveal, I do not believe the twist they proffer either. This means, the twist has yet to be revealed. Is there a hidden detective....possible, but not revealed as yet. Is there a 2nd godfather....also possible. Maybe the godfather had investigation powers to hunt for the detective...and found him. We'll see.
I actually think that our detective has been dead a while. So, don't expect any other reveals. Myrdraal will keep "investigating" for you, as he can't be murdered, but I say we should go for the GF slots and not waste time.
As to the twist:
since three mafiosi were introduced in the prologue along with the Guttering van, this means that at least one mafia-townie is acting with them. Unfortunately, that tells us little to guess the "twist" as there would have to be at least one from the town. Too many possibilites in Silver's creative mind to guess.
Vote: Crazed Rabbit as the slightly more likely of my 3 prime suspects.
Note to Silver: I, being innocent, would vehemently protest, lash out, and fight back to stop my unwarranted lynching. Let your write-up reflect this if it comes to it.
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks