Upon my death, the town census will read as follows:

CR, Csar, DW, Don C, Husar, Masy, Myrdraal, Prole, Sigurd.

Divine Wind, by role, cannot vote.

Therefore, you will have 8 voters.

If there were 4 mafia and Seamus is innocent, it is reasonable to assume at least 1 is dead (Sasaki or Hanky). The three remaining could double kill, leaving you with three mafiosi and three townies. The game is then over (3-3 tie, no lynch, add 2 murders, done), unless Divine Wind is one of the mafiosi and you can still manage a 3-2 vote. Even then, you'd have to get it right every time with no slip ups or you're toast. I'd rate this one 90/10 mafia favor.

If there were 3 mafia and Seamus is innocent, it is reasonable to assume at least 1 is dead (Sasaki or Hanky). This is a challenge for the mafia, since they are still limited to one kill and the numbers would be 5-2. This leaves a two rounds to get the GF or his henchie (otherwise its 2 murders, 2 lynches, mafia lynches remaining voter, mafia lynches CoP) -- but still provides the mafia a chance to bluster and obfuscate while weeding the numbers. This is 50/50 town v mafia.

Your only strong scenario is if I am mafia, since that leaves you with a 7-1 advantage over the GF. At one murder per swat, the GF has to survive three rounds of voting while doing all the murders -- a lot tougher. Town wins 70/30 here.

Should you let me live?

If I'm the 4th mafiosi, leaving me alive would still leave only 2 remaining -- and 1 kill to cope with -- odds of winning very similar to the 3 mafia/Seamus innocent scenario above, with one additional (admittedly somewhat chancy) shot at the godfather. Remember, even if Myrdraal IS the consumate detective, I cannot be the godfather.

If I'm the 3rd mafiosi, leaving me alive changes NEITHER the number of mafia votes you'll be facing nor the number of kills, but provides you with an additional shot at the godfather.


Ultimately, I don't think you improve your odds of winning by killing me, even if I were guilty. And, since I am not mafia, I am absolutely certain of this.