The Godfather, Part 2 [Concluded]

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Upon my death, the town census will read as follows:

CR, Csar, DW, Don C, Husar, Masy, Myrdraal, Prole, Sigurd.

Divine Wind, by role, cannot vote.

Therefore, you will have 8 voters.

If there were 4 mafia and Seamus is innocent, it is reasonable to assume at least 1 is dead (Sasaki or Hanky). The three remaining could double kill, leaving you with three mafiosi and three townies. The game is then over (3-3 tie, no lynch, add 2 murders, done), unless Divine Wind is one of the mafiosi and you can still manage a 3-2 vote. Even then, you'd have to get it right every time with no slip ups or you're toast. I'd rate this one 90/10 mafia favor.

If there were 3 mafia and Seamus is innocent, it is reasonable to assume at least 1 is dead (Sasaki or Hanky). This is a challenge for the mafia, since they are still limited to one kill and the numbers would be 5-2. This leaves a two rounds to get the GF or his henchie (otherwise its 2 murders, 2 lynches, mafia lynches remaining voter, mafia lynches CoP) -- but still provides the mafia a chance to bluster and obfuscate while weeding the numbers. This is 50/50 town v mafia.

Your only strong scenario is if I am mafia, since that leaves you with a 7-1 advantage over the GF. At one murder per swat, the GF has to survive three rounds of voting while doing all the murders -- a lot tougher. Town wins 70/30 here.

Should you let me live?

If I'm the 4th mafiosi, leaving me alive would still leave only 2 remaining -- and 1 kill to cope with -- odds of winning very similar to the 3 mafia/Seamus innocent scenario above, with one additional (admittedly somewhat chancy) shot at the godfather. Remember, even if Myrdraal IS the consumate detective, I cannot be the godfather.

If I'm the 3rd mafiosi, leaving me alive changes NEITHER the number of mafia votes you'll be facing nor the number of kills, but provides you with an additional shot at the godfather.


Ultimately, I don't think you improve your odds of winning by killing me, even if I were guilty. And, since I am not mafia, I am absolutely certain of this.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Re: Ignoramus paradox.

I claim game fatigue. Believe it if you want, but it is the truth. Ignoramus was in fact investigated in that round, but during my fifteen zillionth defense against Sasaki's attacks, I just honestly forgot that we investigated him. That investigation was a pretty minor one anyway, as it was the round where Sigurd accused Kommodus. Nothing else of note really happened, and Myrd and I didn't want to fall in the trap of investigating solely based on posts. Here's pretty much how our discussion before the investigation went:

Myrd: "I don't know, Ignoramus has been acting weird. Want to investigate him?"

GH: "Well, he's acted like that in previous games, but why not? It's good cover anyway."

Satisfied?

EDIT:

Hanky took off virtually all of round 4 to "recover" from his spat with Sasaki and didn't do more than bandwagon on the EMFM round. He nearly brought it off without a hitch.

I was actually the first person to vote for EMFM. So don't try that argument.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Re: Ignoramus paradox.

I claim game fatigue. Believe it if you want, but it is the truth. Ignoramus was in fact investigated in that round, but during my fifteen zillionth defense against Sasaki's attacks, I just honestly forgot that we investigated him. That investigation was a pretty minor one anyway, as it was the round where Sigurd accused Kommodus. Nothing else of note really happened, and Myrd and I didn't want to fall in the trap of investigating solely based on posts. Here's pretty much how our discussion before the investigation went:

Myrd: "I don't know, Ignoramus has been acting weird. Want to investigate him?"

GH: "Well, he's acted like that in previous games, but why not? It's good cover anyway."

Satisfied?

No.

[Silver Rusher]

Day breaks in the Gameroom. All is quiet.

Proletariat was a very environmentally and health conscious person. This was why she cycled around everywhere. That morning, she took her bike out for a bit of early morning shopping.

Nikolay's was always open, so it was an ideal place to shop. Knowing exactly what she needed it only took her about 5 minutes to get everything and get out. She put it in the basket on the front of her bike and cycled away.

Prole liked her daytime television, and her favourite chat show was about to come on. She decided to take a shortcut to save time.

But this wasn't a good idea. She turned right, and went down a road with walls on either side to the sight of a van. A van marked Vincenzo's Guttering, in fact. It was driving straight towards her, and accelerating. Perhaps the driver didn't notice her.

Nope. Prole screamed in fear, but also in the hope that the driver would notice and stop. But it didn't happen. The van, now at a speed of about 60mph, knocked her off her bike before crushing her with its weight. The van stopped, and reversed back over her, before driving forwards and out of the alley (also crushing her body some more). She was dead, but they needed to be sure.

Fear gripped the town, but at the same time they were getting fairly used to the murders. It was no longer a town, it was a scene of genocide with a few people living in it.

Chief of Police Divine Wind stepped up to address the highly traumatised crowd.

"So many of us have died, so few of us are left living. But out of the 8 that remain, at least one of us must still be responsible for all these deaths!" He paused. "The killer is, or the killers are, still out there. We have to get it right this time! Cast your votes."

Status List

Killed By Mafia:
Lemur
UltraWar
Major Robert Dump
Byzantine Mercenary
Sir Moody
theRTWGuru
Dutch_guy
Xiahou
Cowhead418
Proletariat

Lynched:
Drisos
Kommodus
Sasaki Kojiro
Ignoramus
Evil_Maniac From Mars
GeneralHankerchief
Seamus Fernanagh

PM:
Destroyer of Hope

Wrath of God:
Big King Sanctaphrax
Peasant Phill

Still alive:
Masy
Csar
Don Corleone
Crazed Rabbit
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Husar
Divine Wind
Myrddraal

8 players remain.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Okay, right now my suspicions lie with Husar and Masy (a bit more than Husar). I still believe in GH and Myrd, because I am certain Sasaki is mafia. Some may point out that Myrd has survived a long time for detective, but after last round he was useless as all the mafia had been found, and leaving him alive makes him more suspicious.

So, my vote will depend on who can defend themselves the best.

Right now, Vote: Masy.

Masy, this could very well change based on how you respond.

Crazed Rabbit

[Husar]

This is quite hilarious. I knew the only person that everyone thinks is not guilty had to die.

On the other hand, I didn't want that to happen.

Vote: Crazed Rabbit, since he is obviously connected to the GH-Myrd mafia.
I think he is more liely the godfather than Myrd because Myrd was mentioned as Co-detective which would be too much of a risk for the mafia in case the stunt would not work.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Husar, I am not mafia nor Godfather. I do not believe GH or Myrd to be.

Nor am I the only person who has voted with GH and Myrd these last few rounds.

Due to your seeming assumption that Gh and Myrd are mafia, which is quite a leap, especially when you wonder why GH would have named Myrd when it was only him under suspicion, I am forced to think that you are the only remaining mafioso.

Unvote: Masy
Vote: Husar

Crazed Rabbit

[Masy]

Right now, Vote: Masy.

Masy, this could very well change based on how you respond.

Could it? Fantastic! A chance to prove myself to you with words...
Honestly,is your basis for voting me is so fickle that a few words from me (who you are voting for remember, and hence must find suspicious right?!?) can sway you? Yes, the game is about discussion and what-not, but surely you must have something more than the anticipation of my defense (which, by the way, could be something as ridiculous as "I love cheese, therefore am not in the mafia", since you didn't really give me anything to defend.) on which to base your vote?

Right, here's my defense to your solid concrete attack: I am not in the mafia.
Untill you give me something to actually argue with you over, then my 'defense' will stay as flimsy as your attack.


BTW getting me and Husar to fight for your vote is an odd tactic, and one which brings into question your basis for voting (again)

Also, don't be offended if i sound angry in this post, I had a frustrating day...

-edit-
just read your vote-swapping, and it's enough to clinch it for me (heres my clear, concise reason for voting : your tactic of getting me and husar to fight for your vote was suspicious enough, but your also swapping voting between me and husar, with no solid backing behind your reasoning)

Vote: Crazed Rabbit

[Kommodus]

Re: Ignoramus paradox.

I claim game fatigue. Believe it if you want, but it is the truth. Ignoramus was in fact investigated in that round, but during my fifteen zillionth defense against Sasaki's attacks, I just honestly forgot that we investigated him.

GH... I can almost believe that. I can accept that you might forget about Iggy being investigated in the aftermath of your spat with Sasaki.

However, when you "revealed" yourself and Myrddraal, you included the list of your past investigations in your post. Surely that would've refreshed your memory?

Then again, if you and M were making up the whole story of the two detectives, you also would've had to concoct that list of fake investigations. Surely you wouldn't have forgotten the lie you made up so quickly?

Still feeling a little fatigued there, bro? Or is that whole thing just a clever cover for your guilt?

Are you a mafioso?