The Sicilians.
I take Naples, then build up a basic infrastructure, army, and a few ships for a short while. When the first pope is in his mid-fifties, I take Rome, then quickly, Tuscany and Venice, isolating him in the Papal States. If there's a castle there for him to retreat to, and he's got a significant number of troops left, I'll attack him and reduce him to near nothing, then retreat. I never eliminate him, but leave him weak and surrounded, like a Japanese emperor. The pope soon dies, lifting my excommunication.
I finish off the Italians on the mainland in Genoa and Milan too, hopefully before the Pope dies, leaving them poor and isolated on Corsica and Sardinia. If they start building an infrastructure for ships on these islands, I invade, cripple, and isolate them on one island, as I've done with the pope.
If the opportunity presents itself, I ally with the Hungarians and HRE. I avoid alliances that do not provide immediate benefit, and do not ally with the Byzantines because of our religious differences.
The only significant complication with this strategy is the initial Italian fleet. I have to build enough ships, and be somewhat lucky when I launch my attack against them. If I lose my ships, it slows things down considerably.
Rome has a very nice infrastructure (castle) from the get go. This speeds up the development of advanced units, particularly knights. With Venice and Sicily, I have the basis for excellent trade, complimented by Naples, Tuscany, and Genoa. With some luck, Italian sea power has been eliminated, and its infrastructures assimilated. The pope will never be a significant threat again, though I do have to maintain small, functional garrisons in Naples, Rome, and Tuscany in addition to my main defensive armies in Venice, Milan, and Genoa. +1 valor Genoese sailors and +1 valor Urban Militia (Tuscany) are cheap to train and maintain, and are useful to a degree in the Early Period (UM as garrison troops after the first few decades).
After unifying the Italian peninsula, excepting the Papal States, I send ships--and then fast crusades via these ships--to the Holy Lands, with Antioch being my first conquest (Glorious Achievement). My crusades originate from Malta, which produces +1 valor Knights Hospitaller. My influence increases with each crusader conquest, and my heirs' characteristics improve dramatically. Soon the Pope is more than happy to ally with me, despite my initial aggression.
As the game progresses, I secure the Middle East and Africa, crusading like crazy. Then I turn my attention to Spain, and move up into western Europe from the Iberian peninsula. I work my way East from there, and if things go well, secure total victory before the Mongol Invasion. I delay my attack against the Byzantines for as long as possible, as they are usually my primary trading partners. When I do take them on, I need to have enough territorial income and banked savings to cover the loss in trade income.
I balance conquest with the expansion of trade, the development of my infrastructure, and sea power. I never worry about excommunication, just making sure that I have the garrisons and governors in place to maintain order, and timing invasions against Catholic factions with the likely demise of the current pope. I can always kill him, in battle or by assassination, if he becomes a hindrance.
This strategy works well consistently--a methodical fast track to power, influence, and eventually, domination.
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