The dissolution of the Union

[scotchedpommes]

I'm not sure the oil is too big a factor. Even with it taken into account, there is still a net flow of money out of London and the South East towards Scotland.

The split would be financially beneficial for England. Not that that means it's a good idea, of course. Perhaps proper federalism would satisfy both parties?

Given that it was the oil that sparked Nationalism before now and that they're
still talking about taking the benefit from it, I think they might still see it as a
major factor.

As far as federalism is concerned, I very much doubt that it would be accepted
up here, as they've said that nothing short of full independence would be an
objective. The idea of staying part of the Commonwealth given that fact also
seems absurd. Connection to the monarchy [including that in Bavaria] should
dissolve completely.

If Scotland becomes independent, the resolution of the West Lothian question will be the ejection of all MPs with a Scottish constituency - they will have to stand for the Independent Scottish Parliament. New Labour will suffer greviously in that scenario. The Tories, who have no seats in Scotland at all (or maybe they got one last time) would be unaffected and likely to have the in-built permanent majority in England and Wales that Labour would enjoy in Scotland.

Except the Scottish Nationalists would probably eclipse Labour there too.

Cue the conference panic and backlash speeches.

The Tories gained a single seat, as far as I am aware - and no doubt as Malcolm would mention, they probably have control of a fair few insignificant positions around the country.

I'd venture that neither party [Labour or SNP] is sure which way a vote would go, and that's why we'll be seeing pushes from both sides. Whether or not polls seem to indicate that a majority would vote for independence, I would imagine regional variation is considerable. Whenever the local news programmes conduct their 'man on the street' style questioning, a majority seem to be in favour of the status quo, if not entirely apathetic. That said, the demographic never seems to be that varied. I personally find it hard to see the SNP winning the election, and so all this talk about polls is rather pointless. All it does is give IA and co. a chance to have a whine.