So many accidental deaths...

[Daveybaby]

What happened to the early reports that the stated percentage of successful assassination seemed to be off--I know I've had assassins with a stated 90% chance to kill someone, and they almost never succeed, so I've stopped building them.

I think there are two issues here.

(1) The percentage given is just an estimate based on the target's valour and (probably) retinue. I dont think it takes into account any other factors like how many spies are in the stack/city, stack size, if youre on foreign soil, etc, which may also affect the final probability. This was certainly the case in MTW1 w.r.t. watchtowers etc

(2) I think the game precalculates some dice rolls for stuff like assassinations etc, so that reloading a failed attempt doesnt seem to change the outcome very often. If thats the case, then great - it stops people save/load exploiting - but it also makes people think the game is bugged.


Note: the above is just educated guesswork based on what i've witnessed happen in the game. I may be talking garbage. It wouldnt be the first time.