Hrmmm... So I'm somewhat perplexed at this point. Been doing some searching and reading from other forum members and a few other sites, and it may turn out after all that your 95% chance may not have been even close to 95% in actuality. I'd *really* like CA to verify this, but it appears that other characters in proximity to your assassin and target can affect the outcome, such as spys/etc, and it won't show up as a factor in your displayed probability. So your 95% chance may have really been a 5% chance.