Just an example - recently my 5 stars merchant ON MY OWN LANDS (France) had only 48% chance against an enemy 3 stars merchant. I don't know what the logic is. The logical chance is 5/3 or 62,5% and as even without any "home" bonuses.
BTW - there are definetely some "home" bonuses because I attacked a merchant outside my borders and I needed 2 turns for it; but the next turn the enemy merchant entered my territory and the chances increased with about 15%.
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