I think he makes a pretty good case for the parallels, certainly agree with his analysis of Iraq as a country. I don't believe it is a nation, it is a fiction, held together only by successive waves of repression and occupation. Toppling Saddam was arguably "unplugging the volcano", but as with all these things the pressure will blow sooner or later and sometimes the tighter the bung, the bigger the bang when it goes. Things probably would have been better if it had blown apart sooner rather than later.

To be completely Machiavellian about it, I would say that if the Islamic world starts tearing itself apart in sectarian war, then maybe the external enemy - the West - will be forgotten. After all there's no enemy like a close enemy. Even extremists get tired of bloodshed eventually. This is not a cause for optimism - I agree that it's probably too late for a way out. The only way out is through.

He also raises a serious point about what might happen to oil prices and supply - in our very oil-addicted societies we could find dramatic knock-on effects. Even if we pull out militarily, we can't stand far enough back to be unaffected.

It remains to be seen whether secularism emerges as the dominant force in the Middle East, but it would certainly help.