Why Assassins are *meant* to Fail

[dopp]

While digging through the campaign database I think I have discovered part of the reason why assassins have a remarkably low base chance of 12% to stab someone successfully compared to 35% for inquisitors. This is due to two major changes from RTW:

1. Assassins survive their missions more often (although they lose skill from them way too easily).

2. The target's skill level has almost no impact on how easy it is to kill him.

The relevant entries in the file:

<assassinate_base_chance float="12"/>
<assassinate_attack_modifier float="1.0"/>
<assassinate_defence_modifier float="0.0"/>
<assassinate_public_modifier float="1.0"/>
<assassinate_personal_modifier float="1.0"/>
<assassinate_counter_spy_modifier float="1.0"/>
<assassinate_agent_modifier float="2.0"/>
<assassinate_own_region_modifier float="0.7"/>
<assassinate_assassinate_attr_modifier float="0.1"/>
<assassinate_chance_min int="5"/>
<assassinate_chance_max int="95"/>

Changing the assassinate_defence_modifier to 1.0 made characters with high primary stats (command stars for generals, piety for priests etc.) impossibly difficult to kill, while those with low stats remained relatively easy (I have a whole bunch of level 10 killers and plenty of targets to test them on). I did notice some difference between killing a priest with 1 piety and one with 2 piety even when the value was set to 0.0, but nowhere near as dramatic as when set to 1.0. Apparently, killing someone on his home ground takes a large hit as well (assassinate_own_region_modifier float="0.7"). This makes experienced assassins super dangerous because they can assassinate virtually anybody no matter how experienced he is, unless he has one of the personal security traits or travels with a large stack of troops (the public and personal modifiers).

[Shahed]

Nice job. So killing someone is obviously easier outside his home ground and is easier for you to kill people on your own ground ?

[Grimmy]

I'm actually a bit of a fan of the changes to assassins. They're there and basically useful for those that want to spend the time and effort to work them up and use them but not so over powered that they lend themselves to dominance in the game. I'm currently playing with Lusted's LtC 1.1 so it might actually be the changes he made to assassins that I'm a fan of, come to think on it some lol.

I also am half pleased by/half annoyed by the easy stat reduction on failure. It sure does add to the tension and keeps me from simply throwing assassins and spies around like I used to in RTW. I tend to see them now as more like assets that need careful cultivation and only risk on serious deployments.

But there's one thing for sure and for certain. Soon enough, there's gonna be a plethora of mods and there'll eventually be enough choices to keep most everyone happy.

[Kraxis]

Hmmm

<assassinate_agent_modifier float="2.0"/>

Obviously this one isn't a spy, this one is:

<assassinate_counter_spy_modifier float="1.0"/>

So what is the first one?

And the personal modifier? Would that be the effect the various traits and ancilliaries have?

At elast we know for sure that spies help against assassinations, and why spies are so insanely hard to kill (they are their own counterspies).
But the cange you mention to the defence modifier, does that make lower ranked characters easier, while higher ranked harder? That would be great, as I hate to be able to go about killing Cardinals for lunch, yet I want to rid my lands of troubling inquisitors (even after the patch I'm sure they are going to be a pain).

[Kobal2fr]

Hmmm


Obviously this one isn't a spy, this one is:

So what is the first one?

My guess would be that it is what makes it easier to kill agents (priests excepted for some reason. I'd quite like it if priests were as easy to kill as diplomats of equal skill :/ ) than generals.

Nice find again, dopp ! I like the thinking behind it. Nobody's safe from experienced killers, but experienced killers are very hard to come by. "Realistic", in my book.

[dopp]

Guild is way slow for me this whole week... takes 5 mins to load a page and half my posts get blocked.

In RTW and earlier games, the character's "primary statistic" seemed to make a difference as to how easy he was to kill. For example, a general with 10 command stars was harder to knock off than some newbie with 1 star. This doesn't seem to have as great an impact now. I'm still playing with the settings to see what causes what, but now the patch is disrupting things.

After much more testing I find my initial conclusions in error. Things are a lot more complex.

What I think the various settings mean:

<assassinate_base_chance float="12"/>

This is the base chance for a kill. It seems to be multiplied rather than added to by other factors since changing it from 12 to 35 (matching inquisitors) created super assassins that had a 95% chance of assassinating well-guarded faction leaders on home territory as opposed to 16% before. No wonder inquisitors were overpowered.

<assassinate_attack_modifier float="1.0"/>

How much your assassin's agent skill (number of eyes) affects things. Assassins also have an "assassination" bonus that is separate.

<assassinate_defence_modifier float="0.0"/>

This is rather difficult to figure out. Changing it to 1.0 made princess, merchants, priests and inquisitors very very difficult to kill, yet generals are completely unaffected. It seems to trigger some hidden value.

I changed this to 1.0. 10 piety inquisitor vs 10 skill assassin, base_chance set to 35 (super-assassin mode). Chance dropped from 84% to a mere 6% with change.

<assassinate_public_modifier float="1.0"/>

This does nothing I can discern.

<assassinate_personal_modifier float="1.0"/>

If your target has personal security traits (faction heirs and leaders get them automatically) they make things harder. Much harder. Characters also pick up security traits after each failed assassination attempt, making them increasingly harder to kill. Pick important targets well and use your best men. On the bright side, failed assassination attempts will give the target horrible traits like:

Gambling 15%
Girls 20%
Drink 20%
Paranoia 33%
Insane 30% (if paranoia is 3 or higher)
Deranged 10% (if paranoia is 3 or higher)
Xenophobia 8%
Introvert 25%
Doomsayer 100% (Priest)
CowardDiplomat 33% (Diplomat)
WaningConviction 33% (Heretics and Inquisitors)
TimidWoman 33% (Princess)

One point of personal security knocks a huge chunk off the chance of a kill, but increasing amounts have a diminishing effect.

<assassinate_counter_spy_modifier float="1.0"/>

This value divides the kill chance directly. Setting it to 0.5 (but not zero, that messes things up) doubles the chance, setting to 2.0 halves it. Doesn't seem related to spies at all.

<assassinate_agent_modifier float="2.0"/>

This seems to multiply the kill chance on an agent after all other calculations are made. Changing this to 1 halved the percentages, while changing it to 3 increased them by 50%. Generals and captains not affected.

<assassinate_own_region_modifier float="0.7"/>

This is really wonky. Apparently it multiplies the kill chance if the target is on your territory. This means that killing someone wandering around in your very own lands will have only 70% effectiveness (ie significantly harder). Who would have thought it? Rather stupid, since that's where you most want to bump them off in the first place (like when they're leading an army that is beseiging one of your cities).

<assassinate_assassinate_attr_modifier float="0.1"/>

Figured it out. Apparently assassins have an "assassination skill" as well as an agent skill. Since the modifier is so low you won't see much of a difference (approximately 3-5% for each point of assassination skill). Changing this to 1.0 made assassins with even a +1 assassination bonus uber killers again (30-50% increase across the board).

How to get assassination skill:

Prototype Handgun: +1 assassination, +2 law. 33% upon agent creation if there is a gunsmith or higher in the city.
Child Apprentice: +1 assassination. 5% chance on killing a target. This one is ridiculously easy to get for some reason.
Assassin's Blade: +1 assassination. 3% chance on killing a target. Also rather easy to pick up.

<assassinate_chance_min int="5"/>
<assassinate_chance_max int="95"/>

Pretty self-explanatory. Inquisitors have no failure chance at all.

The only variable that seems to affect the chance of killing a general or governor is the number of troops he has in the stack with him. A full stack means 44% chance, 19 is 55%, 18 is 59% and so on (10 skill assassin). Nothing else seems to matter (except the presence of spies and personal security traits). A 10 star, 9 dread, 10 loyalty super Mongol general leading the world's finest army is just as easy to kill as a captain leading 20 cards of town militia.

Here's something else I dug up:

<acquisition_base_chance float="30.0"/>
<acquisition_level_modifier float="3.0"/>
<acquisition_attack_trade_rights_modifier float="1.3"/>
<acquisition_defence_trade_rights_modifier float="0.7"/>
<acquisition_chance_min int="5"/>
<acquisition_chance_max int="95"/>

Notice that level makes a massive difference and that trade rights with the target seems to neutralize his resistance. Maybe this is why AI merchants, who tend to be very aggressive, always seem to win their fights.

[tobigforyou]

can you tell me where this is so i can make "super assasins"?