Well, for the OP, the AI definitely had a spy. They always have a bunch of them everywhere...
As for autocalc in sieges, I just sieged Damascus with my Crusade stack(6 heavy cav, 3 pavise crossbow, rest italian spear milita and fanatics) + a straggler stack(2 feudal knights and 5 fanatics) against a close to full stack garrison consisting of saracen milita, archer milita and mamlukes and a field army nearby with a general, turkomans, light cav and some infantry. I had a spy to open the gates, and 4 siege towers and 2 ladders I didn't use. Battle odds showed 1:1. I got a clear victory after having killed everyone but 30 turkomans who got away and suffering about 450 casualties. I reloaded and autocalced, and then I only got an average victory with about 100 extra casualties. In the battle, my reinforcements held up the AI reinforcements, while I attacked the front gate with my infantry, and the side gate(which was undefended due to the spy) with my cavalry. The cav rushed to the centre, where he had about a quarter of his army, and all his cavalry, which caused the AI to abandon the walls and I could fight them on the way to the center with my infantry. I also kept a cavalry unit to hunt down lone units running towards the center. It became much less of a massacre there than it usually is, and I killed them off when the infantry got there.
It seems that you can easily beat the autocalc score in big battles where you can use tactics to beat the AI, however, when it simply becomes a massacre around the town square, you will lose a lot more. So, I think in order to beat the autocalc, you have to find some tactical advantage to beat them. In this battle, I had two - a reinforcement stack and the rush to the town square. When you have no option but a head-on charge, you will take a lot more casualties than in an autcalc.
I've also had some sieges with my turks where I have taken next to no casualties. One tactic I've used is to load up 10 or more siege towers with ottomans and send them at the walls as close together as possible. They'll make short work of the defenders, and can then shoot down the enemy. Another one is to beat down a lot of the walls with cannons, then bring musketeers to shoot through the gaps before finish with heavy cav.
Unfortunately, I have a crappy gfx card, so I don't fight the small sieges...It takes WAY to long, and they're not very fun... But I've started to always fight the large sieges. You'll need one of three things to do it properly - lots of siege towers, cannons or a spy + cavalry
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