Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Saddam was an effective dictator -- as this legacy proves.

He so effectively squelched anybody who even seemed to be a source of threat or resistance that few "leader types" are left. Nobody has the charisma/charm/power to take the lead and cross ethnic/ideological lines to establish a stable Iraq.

The largely Sunni government is trying to co-opt the militias and I am sure that the stated goal is to "pull the teeth" of the threat by making it part of the solution. May even be working to some extent. As the death squad thing shows, however, the strategy as a whole hasn't worked.

Like it or not, we are going to end up with (de facto if not de jure) a tripartite Iraq that is one country only for: sporting events & UN membership purposes. The interesting and unresolved question is just how much independence the Shia segment of the new Iraq will have from Iran's ayatollahs.

The USA is not willing to pay the price in blood, treasure, and bad press to truly subjugate Iraq and start over from a basis of relative stability. Since, given the size of the militias that would need to be suppressed and disarmed along with the insurgencies, you're talking about 1-1.5M coalition troops, the lack of political will isn't too surprising.
Iran's influence is crystal clear. They own the Shia groups in Iraq. It's not more complex than that. Considering that Hizbollah won the war against Israel, it's a pretty desperate situation.

This means in the tripartite Iraq there is an extremely powerful probability that a majority Shia element owned by Iran. And in Palestine, Hamas and Hizbollah hold the reigns. The power struggle between the Fatah and Hamas is obviously going to be a major victory for Hamas. They will try to kill whatever Fatah leaders they can, those who are not in the spotlight. When I say owned by Iran I mean they will do exactly what the Iranians tell them to do. Imagine what bricks the Soddies (saudis) are defecating. They must be drinking oil to alleviate their constipation.