What is really going on in Iraq?

[DukeofSerbia]

Only solution for Iraq is separation in three states.

[Don Corleone]

Only solution for Iraq is separation in three states.

So that the 3 can be gobbled up by Turkey, Syria and Iran?

[DukeofSerbia]

So that the 3 can be gobbled up by Turkey, Syria and Iran?

It is public secret that Iran had influence in Shiite Iraqi Government.

[Don Corleone]

It is public secret that Iran had influence in Shiite Iraqi Government.

Newsflash: Sky is blue. What has either of these 'secrets' got to do with partitioning Iraq into three states?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Would 400k initially have done it? NO -- but the hole dug for us in the initial aftermath/"mission accomplished" phase wouldn't have been as severe.

We needed to have the 10 divisions Redleg suggests, quickly supplemented by another 5-10, plus all of our coalition allies.

You need lots of boots for a proper subjugation.

Return army units to barracks and disarm immediately but demobilize in a controlled fashion. Separate the bad eggs from the good ones, keep as many of the latter as possible as cadre. As it was, we just let them fade away...

Establish rigorous control over water, power, transportation and commo infrastructure. Develop plans to improve and extend all of these services.

Maintain existing civilian control structures in place with coalition "watchdogs," gradually collecting info on who needs to be: promoted, kept, let go, or shot.

Hammer the crap out of any nascent insurgency efforts using slightly more force than is required.

THEN you begin the road toward democracy. Democracy can emerge from chaos, but this is rare. Most culture groups are more likely to move towards it when moving from a physically -- if not politically/culturally - secure basis.


So far, the USA hasn't shown itself willing to undertake that kind of arduous -- and messy and occasionally repressive -- task in hand for some time. Like, about 60 years.



Additionally, the central player in the drama that embraces everything between the Tigris and Islamabad hasn't been brought openly onto the stage. The only intelligent reason for taking on Iraq when we did was to put Iran in a box between a somewhat secular, democratic Iraq and a somewhat secular, democratic Afghanistan. Our unwillingness -- mostly for political reasons as Redleg asserts -- to commit the resources necessary to make that happen in Iraq has allowed Iran to wage war against us "on the cheap" with no repurcussions.


There was a time when the USA, with its soldiers deployed in the field in an action sanctioned by Congress -- don't let me get off on their abrogation of Constitutional responsibility, would have responded much differently to clear evidence of foreign support for -- and tactical leadership of -- insurgents who were killing U.S. soldiers. Do the words Casus Belli ring a bell? That time is apparently long past.

[Pannonian]

There was a time when the USA, with its soldiers deployed in the field in an action sanctioned by Congress -- don't let me get off on their abrogation of Constitutional responsibility, would have responded much differently to clear evidence of foreign support for -- and tactical leadership of -- insurgents who were killing U.S. soldiers. Do the words Casus Belli ring a bell? That time is apparently long past.

Perhaps, but isn't most of the support coming from Saudi and Jordan to the Sunni insurgents who are doing most of the damage? Isn't it the case for at least a decade now that most of the funding for anti-American actions has come from US allies?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

@ Pannonian:

Possibly true. Certainly true if you consider private Saudi funding that hasn't been effectively squelched by the Saudi government to be a violation.

I'm just a little tired of leadership that wants to fight a war without declaring war; that wants to project power without accepting the price of that projection; that pretty much always tries to have its cake and eat it too -- even when history tells us that only is successful once in a very blue moon. Most insurgencies fail -- a simple lesson of history -- they win only when they cease to be an insurgency and win or at least hold their own in the "open field" or when the dominant power they face decides to quit. The USA has become prone to quitting. Despite the best military on the planet, we could arguably be viewed as a collection of candy-asses. This would be far less of a problem if we were in our old isolationist mode, but it's a pretty stupid way to do business if you're going to be a world power.

One of my favorite stories is a profile in political courage is Jeanette Rankin. That lady was one of only 49 representatives to vote against our entry into WW1. She was ousted in the next election. She finally managed to return to Congress 20 years later in 1940. She was the only person to vote against our declaration of war upon Japan. She was ousted again.

I don't like her politics -- she was a pacifist and socialist and quasi-communist -- but I have always admired her grit. We have few political leaders today who are willing to take a stand and pay the price as did she. I think we'd be better off if we had a few more.

[caravel]

Newsflash: Sky is blue. What has either of these 'secrets' got to do with partitioning Iraq into three states?

Repartitioning Iraq into the old Ottoman Vilayets of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra and creating independent states from these, would probably be the same as effectively handing them over to their interested neighbours yes. But what other solution is there that doesn't involve countless more deaths and increased militancy for decades to come?

[DukeofSerbia]

Newsflash: Sky is blue. What has either of these 'secrets' got to do with partitioning Iraq into three states?

Because Iraq obviously can be ruled only by dictator, or divide people how can't live together in democratic conditions.

The same was with former socialist Yugoslavia. There is still "multicultural and multi ethic" Bosnia were foreign rule only can guarantee peace among Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats. Serbs want to unite with Serbia, Croats with Croatia, and Bosniaks who want to assimilate the first two (currently they do it to Croats).

Only solution for Iraq is three separate states or loose federation with Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish parts.