Mafia VI: Night of the Day of the Dawn of the Return of the Mafia [Concluded]

[Csargo]

Hmmm, voting people on a "feeling" just doesn't seem right to me.

And your reasoning was so much better I presume?

[Kommodus]

Ok, here are the results of a hasty analysis for all remaining players.

Kagemusha

Activity level down. Post length averages about 150 characters; normally above 300. Averaging 2592 minutes between posts, which is well above normal. Activity level was also low in Mafia I when guilty, but relevance of that game is questionable.

Sasaki Kojiro

Difficult player for Holmes to read. Activity levels have varied throughout his many games; this time everything looked normal until his recent absence. Has been jumping in a little quicker than usual – average delay is 90 minutes, when it is normally over 200 minutes.

Stig

Not many games to compare. Activity levels similar to Midgard Saga; posting is a bit less frequent (average 611 minutes between posts compared to 350 previously). Post length also down a bit; 165 character average compared to about 200 baseline.

Ichigo

Statistics look very normal. Post length, as usual, averages about 200 characters. Posting interval varies but looks very close to baseline. His activity level normally appears to drop when guilty.

Pannonian

Average post length close to baseline of about 600 characters; up only slightly. Average posting interval also close to recent baseline (from Capo), which is 300-400 minutes. Jumps in much more quickly than usual – posting delay is 141 minutes compared to a baseline of 600-800 minutes. Has explained this to my satisfaction.

Crazed Rabbit

Activity level down considerably. Average post length slightly higher than usual, but not enough to raise suspicions. Statistics look very close to those set in Interficio, except for posting interval, which is very high. Semi-lurking, which is unusual. Explanation desired.

Reenk Roink

Activity level close to baseline set in games when innocent. His activity level normally goes up notably when guilty. Has never been one of my top suspects in this game.

CountArach

Post length down (90 characters compared to baseline of 126-215 in previous games). Somewhat less frequent posting also – average interval is 1122 minutes compared to 500-700 in previous games. I was suspicious of him near the beginning of the game for some reason.

ByzantineKnight

Behavior varies from game to game, but nothing jumps out numerically. Mostly short, relatively infrequent posts; comparative activity level up slightly (as compared with other players). No real indication of guilt.

AndresTheCunning

Only a few games to compare. In Capo, average post length was 722 characters, average interval was 648 minutes, average delay was 1048 minutes. In Midgard Saga, average post length was 569 characters, average interval was 321 minutes, average delay was 533 minutes. Current activity level much closer to Capo, with an average post length of 937 characters, an average interval of 994 minutes, and an average delay of 1084 minutes. Activity suggests less frequent but more well-thought-out posts. Very likely to have a role.

Dutch_guy

Statistics look very normal. Activity level typically low, both in post length and frequency. If he’s guilty he’s doing a tremendous job of looking normal.

Kommodus

Posting frequency notably lower, while average post length is a bit higher (940 characters) than normal (500-900 characters). Activity level was up in Graffiti Mafia when guilty. Has claimed RL to explain absence.

Ugh, I really need to go to bed.

Vote: AndresTheCunning

[Csargo]

I think it would be a good time for the detective to reveal if he is still alive. As for now Kage explained his votes as RL, and if he's lieing well then shame on him. I'll go with Kommo on this one. Andres does seem to be acting differently from Midgard iirc.

Unvote:Kage
Vote:Andres

Also I think BK needs to speak up.

[CountArach]

I'll go with Kommodus on this one as well. He seems to know what he is doing.

Unvote: Sasaki
Vote: AndrestheCunning

[Andres]

Not again

Only a few games to compare. In Capo, average post length was 722 characters, average interval was 648 minutes, average delay was 1048 minutes. In Midgard Saga, average post length was 569 characters, average interval was 321 minutes, average delay was 533 minutes. Current activity level much closer to Capo, with an average post length of 937 characters, an average interval of 994 minutes, and an average delay of 1084 minutes. Activity suggests less frequent but more well-thought-out posts. Very likely to have a role.

So, you only have two games to compare to. Not very much to go on, eh? I post less frequent indeed. On purpose. Why? Because I hated the high amount of posts in the last two big mafia games. I am well aware I was one of the causes of that. So I try to post less. Add to that I have been absent several times, like I stated before. So, less opportunities to log in and post. That's another reason why I have less posts, but with more text. Check the Midgard Saga: I got lynched without posting once to defend myself because of real life.

And now I get this? Making well thought posts makes one look more suspicious ? Would you prefer me to make some short, rubbish posts, where I vote for someone without giving any good reason? That would make me look less guilty?

Sorry Kommodus. This just seems very weird. I don't believe in your system. You deceived it once yourself + if I understood one of Seamus last posts correctly, it also failed at least once in a previous game. Whether you are guilty yourself or, without realising it, you are offering the mafia a nice opportunity to get a townie lynched, hiding behind your system.

Well, there are no role pm's in this game, so I can only question your system, point out the dangers of it and declare that I am innocent. Check the thread. I've made well thought posts (but apparently, that seems to be suspicious ), trying to detect who acts suspicious and voting accordingly. I am not the detective, so there's not much to reveal to 'prove' my innocence.

Now, for instance, I don't like how CA voted. He accepts the system without critisizing or asking questons, putting a third vote on an innocent townie:

I'll go with Kommodus on this one as well. He seems to know what he is doing.

Just popping up and voting for someone who is likely to get lynched, not giving any good reasons of his own Ah, but I see, he didn't make a well thought post. So he must be innocent !

But for now, I'll stick to my vote for Sasaki however, since I want him to talk in the thread. I want useful townies to participate.

[Stig]

You can't compare with 2 games, and you can't compare post length and interval, how about being busier now then back then.

Unvote: Reenk Roink
Vote: Kommodus

[ByzantineKnight]

No one seems guilty except Sasaki (as usual)...

Vote: Abstain

[Kommodus]

Andres, you are taking this whole thing far too seriously (and personally). I've admitted over and over again that my system is not foolproof, that it can be deceived, etc. But you are attacking my conclusions based on faulty logic of your own...

So, you only have two games to compare to. Not very much to go on, eh?

No, but ya gotta start somewhere...

I post less frequent indeed. On purpose. Why? Because I hated the high amount of posts in the last two big mafia games. I am well aware I was one of the causes of that. So I try to post less. Add to that I have been absent several times, like I stated before. So, less opportunities to log in and post. That's another reason why I have less posts, but with more text. Check the Midgard Saga: I got lynched without posting once to defend myself because of real life.

Everyone will have an explanation for changes in their posting style. Some explanations will be valid; others not so much. You've been twigged by my system because your style has changed; simple as that.

And now I get this? Making well thought posts makes one look more suspicious ? Would you prefer me to make some short, rubbish posts, where I vote for someone without giving any good reason? That would make me look less guilty?

Sigh... Andres, there are psychological factors to consider here. The fact that you are suspicious has nothing to do directly with the fact that you are making well-thought-out posts, as you keep asserting. Is this a misunderstanding on your part, or are you trying to obfuscate?

Your behavior suggests that you are taking the game more seriously and putting more thought into it than usual. That's why you look guilty - because that's what a mafioso would do. Don't patronize me; I've been playing this game for a long time and I have some idea of what to look for.

Sorry Kommodus. This just seems very weird. I don't believe in your system. You deceived it once yourself + if I understood one of Seamus last posts correctly, it also failed at least once in a previous game.

Well, my system has failed before, but it's been right 3/4 times. And I haven't deceived Holmes before - the system I deceived was my first one, which was far more simplistic.

Now once again, I might be wrong. There's a fair chance of it, in fact - I really don't have a good feeling about this game; I think the mafia are doing a very good job of staying hidden. And if you are, in fact, an innocent player who's been twigged by my system, I understand why you don't believe in it. But you are IMO the best candidate for lynching at this point.

You're right - CountArach is suspicious for his own reasons. So are lots of other players, including me. But I'm not hiding behind my system - I'm using the best tools at my disposal to investigate. Everyone else should do the same.

[Andres]

Andres, you are taking this whole thing far too seriously (and personally). I've admitted over and over again that my system is not foolproof, that it can be deceived, etc.

You did so indeed

But it's very frustrating to get lynched when you are innocent

*Sigh*

These games carry me away sometimes, making me post in a style you won't see elsewhere from me at the Org. Maybe I take these games too serious in general

If one or several of my posts insulted you or the effort you put in developping your program 'holmes', I hereby apologize.

Sasaki's absence in this thread is unusual (is he pissed off at the gameroom?)

Now, as for Sasaki, if he would be pissed of at the gameroom and doesn't want to post anymore in a big mafia game, he would have informed GH about that decision and he would have asked to WoG him or to write up his suicide in game.

C'mon Sasaki, talk