Alternate history - What if? Roman Empire and Battle of the Teutoburg Forest

[Tran]

Brief description of the battle:
The Battle of the Teutonburg Forest took place in the year 9 A.D. when an alliance of Germanic tribes led by Arminius, the son of Segimer of the Cherusci, ambushed and destroyed three Roman legions led by Publius Quinctilius Varus.

1. Had the Roman legions manage to defeat the Germanic tribes, will it create long-lasting effect in Central Europe, Roman Empire, and perhaps the whole Europe? Was it even possible for the Roman legions to won? Or were the Romans just doing the impossible, given the fact that they venture into unknown territory, very well-known to Germanic tribes and Arminius, who in this case probably lure the Romans into the trap (initially Arminius accompanied Varus)...?

There were of course plan to again invade and attempt to crush the Germanic tribe, but these were pretty much unsuccessful, which I will quoted from Wikipedia:

"...Though the shock at the slaughter was enormous, the Romans immediately began a slow, systematic process of preparing for the reconquest of the country. In 14, just after Augustus' death and the accession of his heir and stepson Tiberius, a massive raid was conducted by the new emperor's nephew Germanicus, followed the next year by two major campaigns with a large army estimated at 70,000 men, backed by naval forces. After initial successes, including the capture of Arminius' wife Thusnelda, the army visited the site of the first battle. According to Tacitus, they found heaps of bleached bones and severed skulls nailed to trees, which they buried, "looking on all as kinsfolk and of their own blood". Burial pits with remains fitting this description have been found at Kalkriese Hill.

Thereafter, however, Germanicus suffered two devastating defeats, and withdrew to his original positions on the Rhine, Lippe and Ems. A further, even more massive invasion the next year was inconclusive and ultimately unsuccessful..."

Now another question:

2. Let's say no matter what the odd, the Romans did win at Teutonburg Forest. Will they eventually continue their expansion deeper into German territory?

3. If the Romans did manage to conquer the area, which is present-day German, what impact will it has to the whole Roman Empire? The Romans might after all gain access to Denmark, and the Baltic sea, not to mention natural resources in the region. Perhaps the Empire will live much longer, or...shorter?

4. And let's imagine the Empire eventually collapse too, what do you think the geopolitical situation of Europe from around 1800s to present-day look like?

[Geoffrey S]

Expeditions may have been possible, but ultimately the existing urban centres essential for Romanization elsewhere were simply not present in Germania; Germanicus' repeated victories show that maintaining Roman presence there was simply not feasible.

[Gurkhal]

If the Romans had won, they would most likly not have attempted to drive deeper into Germania. What I've heard it was more of a matter of making the border more easily defendible that was the goal in the first place.

[TevashSzat]

Yeah, the later emperors were more focused towards maintaining borders rather than expanding them so although the Roman Empire might increase in its land, there won't be a overwhelmingly big difference.

[cunctator]

Expeditions may have been possible, but ultimately the existing urban centres essential for Romanization elsewhere were simply not present in Germania; Germanicus' repeated victories show that maintaining Roman presence there was simply not feasible.

The romans had already begun to found towns in germania that should become the urban centers needed for Romanization. One of them was recently excavated near Waldgirmes. If they had been sucessful, who knows?


Cassius Dio 56.18

The Romans were holding portions of it — not entire regions, but merely such districts as happened to have been subdued, so that no record has been made of the fact — and soldiers of theirs were wintering there and cities were being founded. The barbarians were adapting themselves to Roman ways, were becoming accustomed to hold markets, and were meeting in peaceful assemblages. They had not, however, forgotten their ancestral habits, their native manners, their old life of independence, or the power derived from arms. Hence, so long as they were unlearning these customs gradually and by the way, as one may say, under careful watching, they were not disturbed by the change in their manner of life, and were becoming different without knowing it. But when Quintilius Varus became governor of the province.....

[English assassin]

2. Let's say no matter what the odd, the Romans did win at Teutonburg Forest. Will they eventually continue their expansion deeper into German territory?

No. There's a fair bit of research now showing that, except where they butted up against the persians, the Romans ended their empire just a bit beyond the point at which the ecomonic gains from the conquered territory repaid the costs of conquest and policing. They didn't think in those terms of course but that is how it happened.

And first century germany was a sparsely populated subsistence economy. Never would have been conquered.

[KrooK]

If Romans won that battle - nothing would happen.
Same time like Teutoburg Forest were great rising into Panonia and prowinces located near Danube. Romans had to sent there half of their forces from Germania. They were crushing that rising for some years.
When Germans won battle at Teutoburg Forest, they could easy move to Galia and capture that country practically without reisistance. They didn't it because of tribal rivalisation beetwen them. SO Romans had time to finish into Panonia and move units to Germania.
If Romans won, they would stay into Germania. I have heard theory that great rising stopped Roman attemps to capture Bohemia and cental Europe but I think they were too weak to do that. Anyway they were too weak to capture more territory with units they had into Germania.

[The Wizard]

[...] and were meeting in peaceful assemblages. [...]

The Germanic tribes (as well as the Celts) had been democratically electing their chieftains for centuries before they ever came in contact with the Romans... indeed, that is how Arminius came to fall: he became a threat to the democratic process and was overthrown, in a series of events which show a marked similarity to the process Polybius percieved amongst Greek cities.

But then again, this is Cassius Dio, a Roman. The old conquerors weren't known for their keen understanding of the people they faced

[cunctator]

If Romans won that battle - nothing would happen.
Same time like Teutoburg Forest were great rising into Panonia and prowinces located near Danube. Romans had to sent there half of their forces from Germania. They were crushing that rising for some years.
When Germans won battle at Teutoburg Forest, they could easy move to Galia and capture that country practically without reisistance. They didn't it because of tribal rivalisation beetwen them. SO Romans had time to finish into Panonia and move units to Germania.
If Romans won, they would stay into Germania. I have heard theory that great rising stopped Roman attemps to capture Bohemia and cental Europe but I think they were too weak to do that. Anyway they were too weak to capture more territory with units they had into Germania.

The great pannonian urpising broke out in 6 AD. At this time Tiberius had the overall command over an army of 12 legions that attacked Marbods kingdom in Boiohaemum from two directions. One group started at the Rhine in Mogontiacum, Tiberius and the second group, including the Illyrian army, in Carnuntum on the danube. When the uprising begun this attack was quickly aborted before both groups could met and made contact with the Marcomanni.
In 9 AD when Varus army was destroyed the rebellion was just surpressed:
Velleius Paterculus 2.117

117 Scarcely had Caesar put the finishing touch upon the Pannonian and Dalmatian war, when, within five days of the completion of this task, dispatches from Germany brought the baleful news of the death of Varus, and of the slaughter of three legions, of as many divisions of cavalry, and of six cohorts — as though fortune were granting us this indulgence at least, that such a disaster should not be brought upon us when our commander was occupied by other wars. The cause of this defeat and the personality of the general require of me a brief digression.

Also Roman Gallia was completly defenceless, the two legions in Mogontiacum were still intact and immidiatly moved to the threatened northern part of the Rhine frontier, to reeinforce the single legion still there.

[KrooK]

I still think Rome wasn't able to conquer Germania.
Look at Roman history - Teutoburg Forest wasn't their biggest defeat. But earlier they always revenged lost legions. Good example would be Phyrrus or Hannibal.
After Teutoburg they were simply too tired of wars.