Quote Originally Posted by ShadeHonestus
If Big G wins the presidency, however, it will probably hail the deah of the republican party itself as we know it. A large part of the Republican base votes on social matters and after being betrayed by the Bush administration for the last 7 years they didn't show up last November.
Well, the "death of the republican party itself as we know it" is not the same thing as the death of the republican party per se. I suspect the hardcore who stay at home in protest are fewer than the floating voters in the centre who may be attracted by a moderate. I don't know much about the US case, but that seems to be true in the UK of both the right and the left. Labour won power by moving to the centre; the Conservatives are shaping up to do the same despite picking a leader who probably took drugs in his youth and at least pretends to be moderate on a lot of social issues. Maybe it's true in the US too? Clinton was a "new" Democrat and Bush Jr offered a "kinder, gentler" conservatism.

In a two party system, the hardcore don't really have anywhere else to go. And I suspect US/UK voters are swayed by the appearance of competence, and indeed perhaps even just appearance itself. Guiliani has always struck me as a charismatic figure, without being the certifiable mad-eyed personality that I rather suspect McCain is.