The French Presidential contest

[Banquo's Ghost]

I wonder if some of our Gallic friends would be so kind as to give a view on the presidential election now that we are only two months out?

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be?

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time - but I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated. Mind you, that's been said before.

I can't believe that Sarkozy has it all wrapped up already, despite Royal's pratfalls (which I think elicit some fairly serious concerns about her competence). But reading about what's going on doesn't seem to give me a satisfactory insight into what is really going on over there - and my French friends are no help, being pretty determined in their existing views.

Just to show I'm a good European, I'll trade you insights into the forthcoming Irish elections - good for overcoming insomnia and as an emetic.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?
She survived J'ai une question à vous poser. That I would call it 'survive' says a lot about her position. She peaked too early, got all that hype surrounding her last autumn, only for people to realise that she didn't have a program or anything, just her looks, freshness and femininity. (lots of it though )
In place of a solid program, she said she would 'listen' to the people. Meh.

Then when she finally came up with a program last month, it consisted of 100 points. Well meh again. She is trying too hard to please everybody, ending up pleasing nobody in particular. She can't even rally her own base like this.

Then there were all these blunders lately.
China has a 'fast' judiciary system, Israel's occupation of Palestine is akin to the nazi occupation of France, she doesn't realise the difference between civil and military nuclear power. The one blunder I actually liked of her was her not having a clue about how many nuclear subs France has. Finally, maybe we'll get a president who's not obsessed with the more phallic symbols of the Republic.

I'm struggling with voting for a woman just to get a woman on top for change. I would desperatly love to see a female president. But I couldn't seriously vote for someone based solely on his or her gender. Or maybe I just might. Don't know yet.

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be?
Le petit Nicolas is always under pressure and never intimidated by it. The clever bastard is currently keeping a somewhat low profile and is waiting for Ségo's campaign to implode.

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time
But..but..there is no traditional left anymore. They're confused, tiny and passé. :wavesgoodby:

I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated.
A dark horse? The next president of the Republic you mean.

Okay, I'm afraid not.

I'll vote François Bayrou in the first round. For support and to hopefully get him in second place. If he doesn't make it, I'll let my mood decide between Ségo and Sarko. If I'm in a good mood and the sun is shining, it's Ségo. Else it's Sarko.

[Brenus]

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?I didn’t watch it, if it was on TV5, I don’t know. However, her campaign lack of muscles. She was not help by the journalists reporting her small gaffes and ignoring Sarkosy’s one very carefully, like the one when he regretted France didn’t participated in Iraq’s war at the same moment when the USA started to regret it…

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be? Do not underestimate her. She arrived at this level of politic because she is ambitious, cunning and without mercy…
Sarkozy aswell is a taff opponent, but things can change in election, fast. We’ve got the experience of Balladur: every political commentators gave him as the future president and he didn’t reach the second tour…. Same story with Jospin and the unexpected appearance of Le Pen from the Extreme Right on the scene…

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time - but I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated. Mind you, that's been said before.
Well, as a old lefty, I have difficulty to believe in this Left-Caviar… I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou (even if I like what he is saying. The only problem is I remember with who he voted in the Assemblée,..).
I will perhaps abstain… Both candidates have roughly the same agenda; Sarkozy is more honest about it in his intentions to rip-off the French from what theirs parents and grand-parents built and to sell it to his friends…
The campaign is about communications and glamour… I want Victor Hugo, Blum, Clemenceau… I want ideals, ideas, I want to feel that they believe in what they are saying, and not to have this feeling like when some guys/gels knock on your door to sell the last Encyclopaedia Universalis…

I can't believe that Sarkozy has it all wrapped up already, despite Royal's pratfalls (which I think elicit some fairly serious concerns about her competence).Don’t worry, his own camp (actually, Chirac hate him and will do what he can to make him fall in the dust)… And some figures start to arrive to the public attention about the money companies and big fellows forget to pay to the fisc (taxes) in complete contradiction of Sarkozy’s speech…

French elections are without mercy and are not play ground for amators…

[Louis VI the Fat]

She was not helped by the journalists reporting her small gaffes and ignoring Sarkosy’s one very carefully, like the one when he regretted France didn’t participated in Iraq’s war at the same moment when the USA started to regret it…

A gaffe? Which gaffe? It gained him support as well.
'Mon attachement à la relation avec les Etats-Unis est connu. Il me vaut bien des critiques en France, mais, j'en suis fier et je la revendique'.

Do not underestimate her. She arrived at this level of politic because she is ambitious, cunning and without mercy…

Well she is an énarque, eh? It comes with the territory. She even was in the same class as De Villepin and François Hollande. I'm sick and tired of them, the lot.
Bayrou didn't go to l'ENA, he studied at Bordeaux.

Don't know where Sarko studied. He was probably killing small animals at that age.

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time

Well, as a old lefty, I have difficulty to believe in this Left-Caviar… I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou (even if I like what he is saying. The only problem is I remember with who he voted in the Assemblée,..).
I will perhaps abstain… Both candidates have roughly the same agenda

Wait, so you mean that you lefties will in fact commit the same mistake as last time? Abstaining, protest-voting or elsewise fragmentising your vote?

Sarkozy is more honest about it in his intentions to rip-off the French from what theirs parents and grand-parents built and to sell it to his friends…
The campaign is about communications and glamour… I want Victor Hugo, Blum, Clemenceau… I want ideals, ideas, I want to feel that they believe in what they are saying, and not to have this feeling like when some guys/gels knock on your door to sell the last Encyclopaedia Universalis…

And what if they come knocking at your door selling Kärchers?

At least with Sarko you know what he's about. And he does have ideas: liberalism and lots of it. We don't need a soft Ségo Zapatera, we need Nicolas Blairzy.

[Geoffrey S]

Sarkozy seems to be the Putin of France: power-hungry, ruthless, well-established, and thoroughly competent. Whether that's your cup of tea is another matter, but I think France can get a whole lot worse than him.

[Pindar]

I'm struggling with voting for a woman just to get a woman on top for change. I would desperatly love to see a female president. But I couldn't seriously vote for someone based solely on his or her gender. Or maybe I just might. Don't know yet.

Could you explain this? Why is gender relevant? You survivors of Fatlington are a curious bunch.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Could you explain this? Why is gender relevant? You survivors of Fatlington are a curious bunch.

Relevant to me is that gender should be irrelevant for a presidency.

This is clearly not the case yet. Like America, but unlike Germany or the UK, there hasn't been a female president yet. There has been a female prime minister, but that office is not comparable to the one in for example the UK. France is also that little bit more 'Latin', or macho, than these three examples.

I would like a woman in the highest office as a sort of affirmative action. This is what I'm struggling with: gender-irrelevancy and voting for a woman because of her gender are incompatible. Yet, it would help to draw my ideal of irrelevancy closer.

I think. Maybe female candidates popping up everywhere -Clinton, Merkel, Royal- means that it was all just a matter of time before they had equal opportunity to become presidents. And that this time has already arrived. Counting back to the late sixties or early seventies, when the first young women grew up with the ideals and career prospects of the women's movement, we should indeed see women by now who've had the careers that make them eligable for a presidency. If this is the case, then I'll just need to wait until one that suits my political preferences comes forward.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

This is clearly not the case yet. Like America, but unlike Germany or the UK, there hasn't been a female president yet.

Germany has never had a female president. We have a female chancellor, which, as I'm sure you are well aware of, is something different in Germany.

[Pindar]

Relevant to me is that gender should be irrelevant for a presidency...I would like a woman in the highest office as a sort of affirmative action. This is what I'm struggling with: gender-irrelevancy and voting for a woman because of her gender are incompatible.

So you struggle with embracing a discriminatory stance and yet think such an embrasure may move you closer to ending a discrimination? Symbolism trumps merit? God save the French!

Would Marianne be pleased? Would this mean Royal would have to be bare brested all the time or only when charging into battle?

[Louis VI the Fat]

Symbolism trumps merit? God save the French!

One's strengths are one's weaknesses.

Would this mean Royal would have to be bare brested all the time

Yes. She can never be the incarnation of the Republic with her clothes on. But how to tell her?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Well, it's close...





From last year. She's 53 her, the mother of four, and quite hot for her age.

[Pindar]

One's strengths are one's weaknesses.

Once more into the breach then!

Yes. She can never be the incarnation of the Republic with her clothes on. But how to tell her?

I see the dilemma. Any shots of when she was just a lass?

[Fisherking]

Hay! I am a resident alien in the EU! Can I vote for the cute one?

[Meneldil]

What makes me laught with Ségo and Sarko is that people think they're going to magically save our country and turn France into the world #1 super power.

While a lot of people doesn't really give a crap about who's our next kingsident (so do I), both Ségo and Sarko's fan clubs sound really fanatical to me.
They have the weird feeling that if their leader is elected, everything will suddenly get better, while thinking that the other side would only lead France to its final Fall.
For example, my father is a fervous supporter of Nicolas. Whenever I start criticizing Sarkozy (by saying that he's IMO not much better than Ségolène), he turns mad.

It's quite different from 1995 and 2002 elections, but probably similar to what happened in 1981.

[Louis VI the Fat]

a lot of people doesn't really give a crap about who's our next kingsident (so do I)

And there I was, thinking you'd be out campaigning for José Bové right now.

But hey, listen, now that you lefties are giving up, would you mind voting Bayrou for us?
It will stop Sarkozy and all that.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Thanks to all for their views.

I'm still hopelessly confused, but since this is a French election, that's a good thing. I think.

[Meneldil]

And there I was, thinking you'd be out campaigning for José Bové right now.

But hey, listen, now that you lefties are giving up, would you mind voting Bayrou for us?
It will stop Sarkozy and all that.

Who the heck told you I'm a lefty ? If I had to chose a party, it would be the old school Parti Radical et Radical Socialiste, which would now be described as "fasciste et liberticide" by french intelligentsia.

Hopefully, I won't have to make such a choice as I'll likely not vote.

Edit : And no, I won't vote for Bayrou. Despite his pathetic attempts to look like a centriste, he's still a right-winged man who'll do anything possible to end up in Sarko's gvt.
Note that I don't dislike the man himself, but his whole "left and right must work together" speech is either a way to fool the opinion or quite naive.

[ShadeHonestus]

I didn't think France had political contests for the same reason they don't have baseball. As a comedian once said..."they'd only have left field and nobody would be safe."

[edit]

I believe the comedian was Robin Williams, hate to not give him credit.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Apologies for disinterring this thread, but the subject interests me and it seemed wasteful to start a whole new thread.

I wonder if some of the previous commentators could share their thoughts on this article which opines about François Bayrou and his continuing rise in the polls.

Is the writer overly harsh on the electorate? Are the campaigns really wallowing as badly as reports suggest?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

John Lichfield: France is tempted into another cul-de-sac

The fad for Bayrou is another way of evading change, not embracing it
Published: 09 March 2007

A joke is doing the rounds in France about François Bayrou, the centrist presidential candidate who threatens to upset all the confident predictions for the April-May elections. Question: Why does François Bayrou encourage people to leave their mobiles switched on at his public meetings? Answer: When the telephones ring, they wake up his audience.

Bayrou has no power base. He has no original ideas. He is a decent man but a dull speaker and personality (imagine John Major, without the sparkle.) He was an unmemorable - some say cowardly and lazy - education minister in the 1990s. This is his only experience of national office.

All the same, six weeks before the first round of the elections, there is a definite movement towards Bayrou. In one poll yesterday, he reached 24 per cent, just behind the "principal" candidates of left and right, Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy. If Bayrou were to sneak into the second round on 6 May, he would - according to the polls - unite the Anyone-but-Sarko, or Anyone-but-Ségo, majority and become the Next Big Thing across the Channel.

Bayrou is attractive to many voters because he is an "outsider"; a farmer's son, who wears denim jackets and raises horses; and because he has never been to the finishing schools of the French political élite. He is attractive, above all, because he is not "Ségosarko", the candidate of "the Paris-media establishment". He promises to transcend the ideological "cleavages" of left and right; to form a centrist "government of all the talents"; to create a new Democratic Party of the sensible centre.

There was a similar voters' revolt in the 2002 election and during the 2005 European referendum campaign. Those rebellions benefited first the loathsome Jean-Marie Le Pen and then the disparate left and far-right opponents of the proposed EU constitution.

There is an evident, and absurd, paradox in the new fad for Bayrou. He is opposed to all that Le Pen stands for. He is the most enthusiastically European candidate in the elections. Is Bayroumania a sign that the French electorate is growing up? Is France determined to put aside its left-right, shake-it-all-about, hokey-cokey politics of the last 25 years? Is France suddenly more European again?

No. The fad for Bayrou is another way of evading change, not embracing it. After the cul-de-sacs of extreme left and extreme right, France is now tempted by the cul-de-sac of the extreme centre. For 24 years, since François Mitterrand gave up socialism in 1983, France has been governed by consensual, muddle-through governments with alternate left-right labels. Ideological "cleavages" are hardly France's problem.

M. Bayrou has one or two mildly sensible ideas, on the national debt and the job-killing burden of social security taxes. He has some antediluvian, corporatist ideas, on agriculture and education. He does not have the power base to deliver the economic and social change that France needs and says that it wants. His UDF party - the rump of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing's anti-Gaullist coalition of the right and centre - is too small, under-funded and disorganised to give him a parliamentary majority in the legislative elections in June.

For more than two decades, the French electorate has pleaded for "change" and then opposed most changes. It has punished successive governments for "changing nothing" - even though the real causes of government unpopularity have been the limited changes that they have tried to introduce.

A couple of months ago, it seemed that both centre-left and centre-right had found candidates who could raise popular fervour for reformist politics. Both "Sarko" and "Ségo" have their faults, but both have newish ideas (Mme Royal's "Scandinavian" social-democracy; M. Sarkozy's rather Blairist, "humane" liberalism).

"Ségo" fervour has faded. More surprisingly, so has "Sarko" mania. Partly, this is the fault of the candidates. Partly, it is a resurgence of the unthinking "anti-Paris", anti-media mood which characterised the polls of 2002 and 2005.

A thoughtful centre-right, regional politician told me: "I would happily go along with Bayrou if I thought that he represented a real movement for pragmatism and reform. He doesn't. The movement towards him is just another example of our electorate refusing to grow up and face the future. They still want to vote against everything, not to vote for anything. Some say France is stuck in the 1970s. Actually, we are stuck in the 1790s. We just want to cut off heads."

Better Bayrou than Le Pen. But he offers no future for France. A Bayrou presidency risks being a Chirac III: another five years of drift. Having lost patience with the mushy centre, France would inevitably turn back to the destructive extremes. The Bayrou bandwagon would rapidly turn into another tumbril bound for the guillotine.

[el_slapper]

The campaign is utterly bad, and Bayrou being only mediocre has no difficulties going up.

Though he lacks a strong electoral basis. I'd say around 24/100 of Voters are Sarko fanatics, & 18/100 Sego groupies. The real fanbase of Bayrou does not exceed 6/100. But most people who want someone else tend to think he is less bad than the others, & consider coting for him. Note that he may be at 24/100 in the polls now, yet 60/100 of those are not sure of their vote(that is, including me).

But is there a good choice at all? Well, doesn't seem to me.

[Petrus]

I think the article is quite correct.
The electorate part is probably too harsh and inexact but it still corresponds to a reality.

The campaign in itself is very low, with a conservative candidate whose speeches range from Milton Friedman to Blum and Jaures – two French socialist leaders from the first part of the 20 th century – , a socialist candidate whose main line is “ I’m glamour and I will follow the people’s will” and a centrist that exists only because he played it on a rebel style by opposing to the government on some occasions during the last years.

The choice as it is presented is a choice between personalities, not between political programs.
There is a huge difference between right and left as the actions of the different governments since ten years show it but candidates seem to differentiate only by the image they sell of themselves.

In those circumstances jokers such as Bayrou or fascists such as le pen can dig their hole as they do not seem to be very different from the others candidates except that they look truer, more honest which is the biggest joke of the campaign.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Brenus: I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou

Meneldil: And no, I won't vote for Bayrou. Despite his pathetic attempts to look like a centriste,

el_slapper: The campaign is utterly bad, and Bayrou being only mediocre has no difficulties going up

Petrus: jokers such as Bayrou

Bayrou is the one serious candidate and the last hope for France. He only appears boring in comparison, but that's because the other candidates are concerning themselves with showmanship so much. I've never been able to stay awake for more than two minutes when listening to him either, but what's so bad about his moderation of tone, careful analysis, lack of impossible promises?

Sarkozy isn't going to succeed in his program of reform, too many are opposed to it, half the country will be on the street constantly, doing to him what they did to De Villepin. And Royal can't finance her plans, even her own party elephants know it, what a charade.

If Ségo is a Zapatero, and Sarko a Blair, than Bayrou is an Angela Merkel. Boring, but surprisingly competent. And perfectly capable of leading a Great Coalition between the left and right, the one chance for some broadly accepted, realistic reforms.

I love Sarko's priorities, but I fear his weaker character traits. With Ségo, it's the reverse.
Bayrou is the right choice. And enough about his not having a power base or lacking content. Contrary to popular belief, there is both a staunch UDF power base and a clear program. The UDF electorate is higher educated, young, cosmopolitan and quite outspoken in the direction they want the UDF to go to: centre-right, liberal and very pro-Europe.

Fatigue with the current crop of politicians is gaining François 'the catholic peasant' Bayrou the support of the working class, who'll vote him in the second round. Then, opposition to and fear of Ségo and Sarko will get him the votes of those who oppose the one that won in the first round. And voilà: in the biggest coup ever a party which represents five percent of the electorate will gain the presidency.

Who the heck told you I'm a lefty ?

My apparently failing memory told me. But then post more often! Yes, the .org is a complete waste of time for cultured and refined guys like us, but it beats wasting our time in front of the telly. So stop lurking, give in to the temptation, and share your thoughtful analyses with us!

[Papewaio]

a socialist candidate whose main line is “ I’m glamour and I will follow the people’s will”

Sounds very French to me.

What are the main electorate issues?

Immigration?
Employment?
Annoying the US of A?
Witty and insightful reviews of mundane and lackluster books by professors who havn't read them?
The state of the 6 nations?
How to take control of the EU and then the world?
More cake to eat?

[Brenus]

Immigration?
I don’t believe that, but I just follow the campaign from TV5 and what I can catch.

Employment? Yes, that is one point. France is still under high rate of un-employment, and more and more people are worried to loose jobs and houses. What is new in France is even people with jobs are homeless, prices are increasing, the so-call flexibility (which just another word for exploitation) didn’t resolve the problem…

Annoying the US of A?
No, that is just pure fun and pleasure… Especially when it is quite obvious now that WE WERE RIGHT…

Witty and insightful reviews of mundane and lackluster books by professors who havn't read them?
That is teaching and useful social skill…

The state of the 6 nations?
Well, could be, but Rugby is not the main sport in France…

How to take control of the EU and then the world?
We leave that to the youngest countries. We had our share and others have to experiment…

More cake to eat?
France is better with wines and cheeses, as you know.

I like what Bayrou is saying but I don't trust him. He never show once the will to do what he is now preaching when he had the opportunity to do so... Sorry...

[Louis VI the Fat]

Immigration?
Not so much. Law and order is, which is often a euphemism for control of black and beur (arabe) young men.
Law and order is Sarko's program and territory, the current interior minister.

Employment
Yes, in the context of the preservation / reform of the social model, the welfare state, the French model.
The frustrating thing is, France is right, the rest of the world is wrong. Our way of life is the best, but is it sustainable in the face of the onslaught of ultra-libéralism and globalisation? 35 hours a week is the way it should be, so people can read books and have proper meals at a proper table while talking with their friends and family instead of microwave dinners in front of the tv and not speaking to your children.
But what to do in an increasingly globalised world where 300 million Americans satisfy themselves with 14 days of vacation a year, 1.3 million Chinese work 35 hours a day and a billion Indians do your work for 10 percent of your wage?

Annoying the US of A?
Why are they annoying France all the time? We are world powers of equal stature and we don't need America to constantly frustrate us in our global aspirations at every opportunity they get.
Germany, the UK, Africa, the Arabs, Oceania - they're all voluntarily or involuntarily paying tribute to Paris and bowing to our grandeur. Just why the US feels the need to resist this and offer these countries an 'alternative' is a bit beyond me.

Witty and insightful reviews of mundane and lackluster books by professors who havn't read them?
That is teaching a useful social skill.

The state of the 6 nations?
The six nations is a good training ground to experiment with rugby tactics and players in preparation for the serious competitors we'll meet in the World Cup in France later this year.

How to take control of the EU and then the world?
The EU is a topic, but not dominant.

More cake to eat?
We live to eat, you eat to live.
French food is so good, that you can eat all day long and not gain a gramme. Chirac's appetite is legendary, and he knows how to throw a civilized meal for friends, which both have contributed to his popularity.

Mistrust of the political elite plays a large role. Environment is a big issue too.

___

I like what Bayrou is saying but I don't trust him. He never show once the will to do what he is now preaching when he had the opportunity to do so... Sorry...

I get your point, and it is a fair one. But only to a certain extent. For a left-leaning voter, the alliances with the UMP are not very promising, certainly. But then, Bayrou personally has always kept a good distance to the UMP, he is not de Robien.
And, the UDF is a small party hey? It has the option of opposition forever or of occasionaly forming alliances with the bigger parties, who unfortunately will always be the more influential, so one has to compromise at times.

There is a downside to all the candidates. I personally am not impressed with the sometimes near-conservative catholicism of Bayrou. On the upside, he has always worked for the possibility of a centre-right, non-gaullist alternative.
And his books are better than those of Royal or Sarkozy.

___

Yesterday, Chirac has finally announced that he won't run for president again. At 74 and suffering from a still somewhat mysterious disease this doesn't really come as a surprise to say the least. Though apparently he himself believed well unto the end of last year that he could give it a shot.
And there I was, thinking he kept us in the dark only to prevent 'lame-duck' syndrome, and to serve as a plan-B in case of disaster with the other right candidates.

Here's his full speech in french, can't find a translation. It was quite moving. Rousing television speeches and connecting with people have always been what he does best. In fact, he is so good at quitting, I wish he would've done it more in the past.

But seriously, there is a sadness to seeing someone go who's been in a major public function ever since before I was born. He looked vulnarable, human, a 74-year old man who knows he's in the closing stages of his public life. Professing a sincere love for France, the serving of which has always been the engagement of his life. Very touching in a way.

[Papewaio]

I saw the speech on SBS news last night, it was indeed quite moving. Focusing on bringing together the French, struggle with racism, that the French have much to offer the evolving new world and to embrace it not shy away from it.

[Petrus]

@ Luigi :

A political campaign is always a show.
Whatever the candidate, a role must be built that allows a clear identification and a simple message to be immediately linked to the man/woman concerned.
This is true for all of them, Bayrou included.
The programs are always shaped to symbolize a candidate.

In the actual campaign the roles are, from left to right for the main candidates :
A fresh and active woman, free from her party’s rigidity and open to new or unorthodox political views.
A modest, realist and simple man, willing to unify every good will behind him, personifying the “bon sens” and free from ideologies and party’s rules.
A strong willed, brilliant conservator very active, taking all necessary risks and doing what must be done when it must be done.
A big mouth.

Besides those roles, the main candidates represent a political/power colour, from left to right :
A classic social democrat party built to from the core of a left government.
A moderate conservator sensibility associated to the power of the main conservator party.
A strong conservator party that shifted from Gaullism to liberalism/neo conservatism.
A 1930’s European fascist party.

Choice must be made relatively to the colour and if possible to the program of the candidates not to the role they choose to play.

The exercise of power that is manageable by these political sensibilities gives a good indication of what can be the result of the elections :
The socialists are a platform and they governed with all political sensibilities ranging from the communists to the moderate right. Their actions are very pragmatic depending upon the possibilities. They are a party able to lead a government.
The centrists never managed to reform after their defeat in 1981. They have been supported or absorbed by the conservators since that time. Some personalities among them have associated with the socialists, the party itself acting as an auxiliary to the conservators. They are not able to lead a government.
The conservators form a pyramid-shaped party builted to support a man and bring him to power. Their actions are probably the most ideology-dependant of the political spectrum. They have associated themselves with the centrists every time they had acceded to power. They are able to lead a government.
The fascists want le pen caudillo/duce/fürher of france and have no option but civil war.

Concerning this specific election, the problems of Bayrou are :
Although the centre has a political basis, it is very narrow ie Christian democrats, non reactionary conservators …
The pool of voters to the right is shared between Sarkozy, Le Pen and Bayrou.
Sarkozy is the natural conservator candidate, he will be the main benefactor of the conservative vote.
Le Pen will sell his soup to 15-20% of the electorate as usual.
Bayrou will not have enough votes from the right to pass the first turn if he counts only upon the conservator electorate.
The only possibility for him to reach the second turn is to “steal” votes from Royal.
To realize this the shift of the votes from left to right must be massive
The respective scores of the different political colours in france to the first turn are, very widely :
The socialists range from 15 to 25 percent.
The centrists range from 5 to 10 percent.
The conservators range from 15 to 25 percent.
The fascists range from 15 to 20 percent.

To beat Le pen, Bayrou needs to take about half of the votes of Royal, something that is at best very unlikely.

That’s what makes me think he is but a joker.

From a personal point of view, what I do not want to see again is a replica of 2002.

There is a left, there is a right and they are different enough to allow a clear choice for the voter.
The only effects Bayrou can have during this election are to increase the blur between left and right, to drain some votes from the left and to create an opportunity for Le pen.

If you want a social-democrat president then vote Royal.
If you want a neo-conservator president then vote Sarkozy.
I do not think any other choice can present an interest : this is an election, not a poll.

Concerning his idea of a candidate unifying the good wills behind him, I think this is totally wrong. The exercise of power is not simple question of persons. The creation of a coalition must be prepared before elections or managed after elections but it is not a program in itself, it is a way to manage power, not an objective.

[Strike For The South]

Is Le Pen running? Will a disgruntled and overlooked French working class vote for him. What are the French working class like? Do they smell?

[Louis VI the Fat]

Is Le Pen running?

Yes, he simply refuses to die. He's been running every time since 1974. In fact, he's so old, he was already running in 1940, from the Germans.

Will a disgruntled and overlooked French working class vote for him.

Yes, Le Pen wil receive his usual votes. But I'm not worried about him, I don't think he'll make it into the second round this time. Polls say he'll get some twelve percent, to which some five percent should be added for those voters who are too ashamed too admit they vote for the Front National.

What are the French working class like? Do they smell?

I'd say the French working class are the exact opposite of their American counterpart: they don't work, but they do have class.

Video! Smelly, racist, French, and working class.

[Brenus]

“I'd say the French working class are the exact opposite of their American counterpart: they don't work, but they do have class.” That is typically French… The pleasure to write a nice sentence, “le bon/beau mot”, even if the truth is a little bit err… avoided…
The French workers are de facto the most productive in Europe, and believe my experience, comparing the English where the “sickies” are reigning in masters… I never work in a so poor working atmosphere than in UK (I worked for Dutch Compagnies)…

[Louis VI the Fat]

Might as well dig up this thread now that the first round is drawing near. Bayrou seems past his top in the polls, Royal isn't recovering enough, Le Pen is creeping up, but it looks like it's going to be Sarkozy ftw.

Anyway, what better way to do raise interest again than by quoting good-old Le Pen:

Le Pen tells lustful teens the answer is in their hands

He has advocated patriotism and zero immigration, but the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen this week came up with a new way for young people to serve their country: masturbation.

Mr Le Pen, whose daughter and campaign manager, Marine, has been softening the party's image and attempting to attract women with more policies on the family, was attending a debate organised by Elle magazine, entitled "What women want".