Quote Originally Posted by Adrian II
Interesting developments. After yesterday night's debate between Sarkozy and Royal, Bayrou told Le Monde that he 'will not vote for Sarkozy'.

That's about as far as Bayrou can go in view of his stated desire to turn the UDF into a sizeable 'third force' as well as his unstated but obvious desire to become the next Prime Minister (a position which he has already been offered more or less openly by Royal). I guess France could live with a Royal presidency + Bayrou premiership for a few years. I certainly could. It seems to be the best guarantee that zee French exception will persist.

Louis, mon vieux Bayrouiste, what is your take?
My take is that I'm a centriste first and foremost and a Bayrouiste second - his career is none of my concern.

I like the position we've been in for the past two weeks.:
Socialists (Royal) got 26%,
the lunatic left 12%

Right / Sarkozy 31%
lunatic right 13 %

We can safely assume that most first round voters for Sarko and Ségo will vote the same candidate again. And that the lunatic fringes will either support the candidate closest to them or abstain. One doesn't switch from Le Pen to Royal, or from Besancenot to Sarko.
Even if they gain a perfect score from these sources, it's Sarko 44% and Ségo 38%. So winning the 18.5 % of Bayrou is crucial.

None of that will be news to any of you who have followed the elections, but the importance of it can not be overestimated. We're like this ravishingly beautiful young woman that unexpectedly made her entrance at the party. The men just learned a few minutes ago that she's unengaged and are now en masse vying for her attention and trying to court her. She, however, is not an innocent virgin but a top-class courtisane that comes with a high price.

I might in fact sell my vote to the highest bidder. Which as of yet, and this is not going to change anymore, is indeed mme Royal. If it gains Bayrou the position of PM, than good for him. He deserves it because, to his credit, he has used our position well after the first round. For a catholic peasant from the Pyrénées he is rather cunning in a sophisticated way.

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More in general, I am not entirely convinced this is the way forward for the centre. I understand the reasoning behind Bayrou's call for a politics of consensus, for overcoming the differences between the left and right.
Firstly all the candidates had to present their ideas as a fresh start, as breaking away from the old politics. Secondly, for a centrist candidate with a natural following of some six percent, the only viable strategy for gaining the Élysée Palace is to win a lot of votes from the traditional left and right. So for both reasons Bayrou came up with this 'end of the left/right dichotomy'-nonsense for these elections.
This is however neither the cause nor a solution to any problems of French politics. It serves a purpose during a presidency campaign, in which there can be only one winner so a small centrist candidate needs a program with a broader appeal than during parliamentary elections. And it was a clever move in the current climate of disillusionment with politics and politicians in general.
For the centre, it was a good tactic, but it's not a good strategy. I.e., it won us the battle, but it won't win the war for the centre in the long run.

Ah, it's yet again an illustration of one of the real problems of French politics, and maybe Latin politics in general: power is gathered around persons, not parties.

Instead, Bayrou should've driven a wedge between the left and right, to make room for the centre. Or maybe not instead of - the current strategy was perhaps an absolute necessity. Nonetheless, if it was up to me, the grand strategy would be to push the right to the right - Sarkozy is already dangerously close to being a copy of Le Pen, and indeed any rightist candidate has to be with those 10 / 20 percent of voters on the far right. The left should've been pushed to the left. Which is feasible, given the inability of the left to leave old fashioned socialism behind. This leaves a vast reservoir of 25 - 35 % of voters in the middle, the largest pool of all, to be picked up by the UDF, and creating a centrist dominance forever.