Civil wars: any way to know the odds

[Caerfanan]

Ok, after the "what exhaustion brings on our units", I'm now, after having seen my pict foe go into civil war 3 times in ten years, wondering about:

- any way of knowing how far from a civil war your faction is
- any way of knowing who will rally behind the rebels (which are not a "faction", btw, which is weird), or the chances

For instance, is a civil war having a % to happen every turn, this % changing according to what happens to you (defeat in battle? low loyalty in your provinces?), or is every single general making a test every turn?

Well, if someone knows about the civil war / reappearances mechanics...

I noticed as well that when a faction was struck by civil war, it was VERY likely to have reappearances as well. Is it something like "some of the rebels will actually be a dead faction as we have a free slot for the AI" or is it something different?