Just to quick throw in my two cents here:
I second Deus ret. and Innocentius in that you shouldn't bother with Estonia at first. Until you're stronger and are in a better position, the province isn't worth conquering or bribing. (That goes for any faction, by the way; not just the TO.)
I've only tried playing the Order once, but I can tell you that expanding east into Lithiuania and Russian steps (including Novgorod) worked pretty well for me. I admittedly never considered taking Sweden, though. It's probably worth thinking about, depending on how close you want to roleplay.
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