This is an interesting opinion piece for those of us interested in the struggle for power in Britain.

Gordon Brown seems to be fading from his position as heir apparent. I don't know any of my British friends who think he can win the next general election - and several are Labour voters. David Milliband seems to think no-one can win the next election for New Labour, and that the sensible thing to do would be to stay quiet until Brown gets humiliated by the electorate and he can step in as the new New Labourite in opposition.

Yet the columnist posits another possibility - that Blair regrets his decision and might be persuaded to stay on. There has been no popular acclaim for Brown and he's looking wounded - might the PM change his mind? If he did, could he win the next election? - despite his record, he is still a formidable campaigner, and the Tories really ought to be 20 points ahead given his woes.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
Bruce Anderson: Gordon Brown's fortunes are ebbing away

Milburn and Clarke speak for many Labour MPs who are afraid that he will not click with the voters
Published: 05 March 2007

The Labour Party leadership race is a bullfight without a matador. The Brown bull is charging around the ring becoming angrier and angrier, as well he might, because every few minutes a banderillero rushes in, flings a dart at him and then runs away, too fast to be gored and eviscerated. We can be certain of one thing. If a challenger does appear, it will be a cracking contest. No bull has ever been so taunted and maddened.

Political parties which lose confidence in their leader or his heir presumptive have a difficulty. They cannot keep their worries to themselves. The confessional rapidly turns into a recording studio and the electorate listens in. Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn have been hoping to raise doubts about Gordon Brown without supplying the Tories with too much quotable material (Mr Clarke had already done that). But neither man is designed to be a tightrope walker. They can only celebrate their good fortune. Gordon Brown is not yet in charge of the safety net.

Disregard the talk of new visions for 2020. Trying to work out what Messrs Clarke and Milburn mean by policies is like trying to carry water in a sieve. But none of this is about policy. It is about personality: Gordon Brown's personality. Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn are speaking for a lot of Labour MPs who are afraid that Mr Brown will not click with the voters. He will clunk with them, and they will clunk back.

It is still probable that Gordon Brown will become PM. But one fear ought to be gnawing at his vitals. Where are his troops? Why have the airwaves not been inundated by Brownites, contemptuously dismissing the carpers while urging their fellow MPs to line the route for the coronation? Although David Miliband may be some way off commanding a majority of Labour MPs, he has the enthusiasts. The 50th Milibandite hopping for a chance to sign up to his campaign is far more motivated than the 50th Brownite muttering that he supposes it has to be Gordon. Last September's Brownite coup has turned into this March's collapsed soufflé.

David Miliband must feel flattered, and alarmed. Two months ago, I am told, he regarded a leadership bid as an amusing dream, which would instantly become a nightmare if he tried to turn it into reality. That was then, long before the recent polls. Although Mr Miliband is not at all arrogant, it cannot be easy to retain your humility when so many colleagues are pressing you to have a crack at the premiership.

Immediately after the Tory leadership contest in 1990, Douglas Hurd mused he had never really thought he could win. But a number of people whom he respected had urged him to stand. He decided that if he did not have a go, he would regret it later. If Mr Miliband did run, he would do a lot better than Douglas Hurd did. Then again, Gordon Brown would not emulate John Major's effortless generosity towards defeated rivals.

So what are they making of all this, next door in Number 10? At present, Tony Blair seems more interested in adding new American billionaires to his Rolodex. On one point, we can be certain. Amid all the talk of legacies and saving the planet, Mr Blair has one goal at the forefront of his plans. He is determined that after leaving Downing Street, he will make more money than any previous prime minister.

So he will, just as long as Scotland Yard does not inconvenience him. Then again, let us assume the PM does avoid serious embarrassment at the hands of Commander Yates. Tony Blair is young. There are reports that he regrets committing himself to leaving office. It cannot be long before some Labour MP goes public to beg him to reconsider.

One Labour backbencher made an interesting comment last week. He asked me what would have happened if Bill Clinton had been able to run again in 2000. I said that he would have won. If Al Gore came that close, Clinton would surely have done better. "Precisely,'' came the reply. "But we don't have term limits. So why are we swapping Clinton for Gore?''

I doubt if there is a way back for Mr Blair. The Labour MPs who regard him as an alien implant - GM Labour - are far more numerous than the ones who respect his election- winning record. But everything is unstable; everyone is uneasy. Outside the inner Brownite tribe, there seems to be little confidence. Where there is no way forward, the way back has its attractions.

It is hard to know what Gordon Brown could do to make himself an attraction. There is a Budget in two weeks' time. There is no money to spend. No doubt the Chancellor will be up to his usual game of re-announcing spending increases which he has announced several times already. These days, however, everyone is aware of the tricks. The commentators will rush to the small print to deconstruct the Budget, exposing the double and treble counting, the quadruple and quintuple announcing - plus, no doubt, the new stealth tax increases which Mr Brown somehow forgets to mention in his speech.

Yet the Budget will go less badly for him than the Scottish elections. Labour will suffer, and it will be impossible for Gordon Brown to disassociate himself from the defeat. Many English voters will conclude that if his fellow Scots do not believe in him, why should they?

Even so, there is still no matador in sight. But it is worth remembering that the bull never survives the bullfight.