Looks like I was wrong. Found randomly through googling:
Matrix of RTW Campaign Savegame Compatibility
(revision 1.0) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
1.0 YES YES YES NO NO YES YES
1.1 YES YES YES NO NO YES YES
1.2 YES YES YES NO NO YES YES
1.3 NO NO NO YES YES YES YES
1.4 NO NO NO YES YES YES YES
1.5 NO NO NO NO NO YES YES
1.6 NO NO NO NO NO YES YES
Notes:
1. The savegame is in the vertical column, on the left .
2. The version you want to play your savegame in is read across.
3. The way to read it is to ask, "Can my savegame saved in patch Y load/play with patch X?".
For instance:
- "Can my Patch 1.2 savegame be loaded & played in a Patch 1.3 version of RTW?" (No, it cannot)
- "I saved a game with original RTW (1.0); can it be played in a Patch 1.5 version of RTW?" (Yes, it can)
- "I saved RTW campaign game with BI (1.6); can it be played in a Patch 1.2 version of RTW?" (No, it cannot)
Guess we'll have to wait and see how this works out for M2TW.

Edit: Dangit, it doesn't line up! Someone who's better at this can quote me and fix it if they want... Otherwise just eyeball it for the answer.
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