Mission percentages bugged

[Werner]

Ive been noticing more problems with this as time goes on. It seems that at certain points the game won't let you perform certain things no matter how many times you try. I noticed this awhile ago when I was trying to get my princess to marry a general. She had 8/10 charm but no matter how many times I reloaded the game it never went right and she always "ran off with her lover".

The other day I tried to kill off an enemy faction leader, some lunnybin that had undoubtably been sniffing paint and drinking lead for most of his life, with my top notice assassin (12/10). The mission percentage was 37% and my assassin died. I tried reloading about 10 times in a row and every single time my assassin was killed. On a 1 star faction leader ?! WTF

Now I know what your going to say, the percentages just played against you and you were very unlucky. Well today I was trying to sneek my spy into an enemy town. It said that he had 100% chance of success and he got killed.

[vonsch]

I've seen the 100% success rated death with spies too.

[JCoyote]

All mission percentages are rounded to the nearest 5%. IIRC from other TW games, no missions has a true success rate of much over 99%. Hence, on M2TW, if your percentage is 96%, it'll say 100% even though it isn't.

[KHPike]

So far the highest percentage I've ever seen is 95%. I've encountered this bug before, which happens commonly with priests, assassins and merchants. On the other hand, I've managed to acquire merchants much more powerful after a few tries. On odds 15% and below don't bother trying anything though. The odds will be so bad that you'll blunder.

As for the spy, I can't explain that. Bug I guess?

[Foz]

As for the reloading thing, people speculate that the random number generator's current seed is saved along with your save game. Possibly the seed is somehow otherwise based on the state of your game though. Either way, reloading any number of times should always give you the same result, provided the next action you take is the same one you've always been taking. The generator may advance once you take some different action, but it's also possible that whatever the current random roll is, it sticks around until you use it for something. So the short of it is that doing something else, or possibly more specifically doing something else that requires use of a random number, may be the only way to achieve a different result than the one you're seeing.

[TevashSzat]

Yeah, people always remember to do something after you reload to reset the seed or you will always get the same thing over and over again

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Definately bugged!!

Well I've seen spies in a settlement with a 113% chance of opening gates and fail!!

and a 95% chance of success means the mission will almost always be successful. This is certainly not the case as all my assassins which take on 95% missions end up in failure and death after a few attempts.

Reloading does not reset probability values unless you also include an additional move, besides reloading is a cheat but possibly the only way to make assassins work.

[TevashSzat]

Umm....I am pretty sure you cant have 113% chance. You can only have max 95% chance for anything i think

[Werner]

Another factor to look at is that the skill levels for spies and assassins go well above "10/10" eyes. I just counted up all the skills, traits, and retinue for one of my assassins and it came out to be 15 points of skill. So my question is how does the game account for this?

NOTE: Foz, its been established that the numbers system is broken. If you dont use assassins or spies very much it wont hurt your game and you can turn a blind eye to it. What we're trying to do is fix it.

[HoreTore]

It accounts for the extra levels just like any other levels. A level above ten increases your chances.