Quote Originally Posted by JCoyote
Well it's easy to test this. All someone has to do is keep track through a campaign... write the percentage for each strategic character event, and whether it succeeds or not. Then afterwards organize them by the particular percentage... all the 35% together, etc. Then you could get a pretty clear idea how close it's getting.
Quote Originally Posted by dismal
Yep, although it can take large number of readings for samples to converge on their underlying means.
Yes indeed. IIRC the normal approximation of binomial (that is, a 2-option trial, like success/failure) only holds with sample size at least 30, so that would be the least you'd want for the testing. It also requires p (the probability of success) be [.05, .95], which I believe were determined to be the limits the game typically allows for agent success or failure: 5%, and 95%. Perhaps those bounds are not only to ensure a chance for either option always, but more statistically motivated: it's far easier to test the agent missions if you know you can approximate the situation with the normal distribution.

If anyone does intend to test this in a campaign, it's probably simplest to just cheat (via console) some agents up to godlike status, then run them around doing 95/5 missions and record a ton of results quickly. It has the benefit of making all the tests have the same odds, which piles up useful results far faster than any other way likely would.