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Thread: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

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    Nobody expects the Senior Member Lemur's Avatar
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    Post A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    I never thought I'd read one. As I've said before, I see way too much certainty on both sides of the debate. A degree of humility and uncertainty is appropriate, which is not the same as passivity and inaction. I finally found an author who's in tune with the Lemur's feelings on the issue: "Something about the global-warming debate encourages overheated rhetoric." Amen, brother.

    Another fine thought: "This argues not for passivity, and not for delay, but for gradualism: setting up policies that will tighten the screws on greenhouse-gas emissions over the next few decades. The convenient truth about global warming, then, is that radicalism is as pointless as it is impractical. Slow-but-steady is not only the easiest approach; it is also the most effective."

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Global Warming: The Convenient Truth

    By Jonathan Rauch, National Journal
    Friday, March 9, 2007

    In October, British Prime Minister Tony Blair called for "radical international measures" to curtail greenhouse-gas emissions, and fast. "We can't wait the five years it took to negotiate Kyoto," he said. Apparently, 2012 is too late. In hopes of taking stronger steps, however, many U.S. environmentalists want to defer any legislation until President Bush is out of office. Apparently 2007 and 2008 are too early. That gives us precisely three years -- 2009, 2010, and 2011 -- to save the planet.

    All right, that was a cheap shot. I couldn't help myself. Something about the global-warming debate encourages overheated rhetoric. To listen to Blair, former Vice President Gore, and many other political figures and environmental activists, you would conclude that global warming is an onrushing cataclysm and that prevention requires all of us to take radical steps right away.

    A fairer assessment would be many degrees cooler. It would hold that climate change is real and deserves action, but that the problem is nowhere near as overwhelming as the rhetoric commonly suggests, and the solutions nowhere near as difficult. As problems go, in fact, climate change appears to be one of the most convenient that humankind has ever faced.

    Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change announced [PDF] that the Earth is definitely warming and that human emissions of greenhouse gases (principally carbon dioxide) are almost certainly an important cause.

    We have a problem. But what sort of problem?

    A crisis, Blair says. "It is not in doubt," he said in October, "that if the science is right, the consequences for our planet are literally disastrous." He was commenting on a recent British government report (popularly known as the Stern Report) on the economic effects of warming. In The Baltimore Sun, Bryan Mignone, a science and technology fellow at the Brookings Institution, cites that report's conclusion with alarm: "The damage associated with warming under a 'do-nothing' policy is likely to be 5 percent to 20 percent of global gross domestic product, an outcome to which the word 'catastrophic' would seem to apply."

    Not so fast. Other analyses come up with cost figures more like 3 percent of GDP, but leave that aside. Reanalyzing the Stern Report, Yale University economist William Nordhaus recently noted that a "high-damage" scenario might reduce global GDP by almost 14 percent in the year 2200. On the Stern Report's own assumptions, "This means that per capita consumption would grow from $7,800 today to only $81,000 in 2200," instead of $94,000 (in today's dollars). That's not good, but it hardly seems catastrophic.

    The IPCC says that the world would continue to warm for decades even if all human greenhouse-gas emissions were to magically stop tomorrow, which of course they won't. In testimony last month before a House of Representatives panel, Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research said, "The 2007 IPCC report makes clear that even aggressive mitigation would yield benefits many decades in the future, and that no amount of mitigation can avoid significant climate change."

    Carbon dioxide both accumulates and dissipates in the atmosphere very slowly. Because the stock of greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere dwarfs any one year's emissions, and because any one year's emissions can be changed only slightly, stabilizing greenhouse gases is like turning an aircraft carrier, only much slower. Annual emissions might be stabilized toward midcentury, and atmospheric concentrations at some point after that; but sharp turns are impossible and short-term effects minuscule.

    That would be cause for alarm in an emergency. And many people talk as if there were one. "We need to act soon, before we reach a tipping point," Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., said at a hearing in January. Echoing Blair (as is his wont), David Cameron, the leader of Britain's Conservative Party, recently told reporters that the "big question" is, "Are we going to act before it's too late?"

    Actually, there is no "too late," because there is no particular CO2 target and no particular date by which it must be met. And there is no emergency. An emergency is a "now or never" situation, but climate change is a "now versus later" situation. Immediacy trades off against efficiency.

    "What we do now makes a difference for the future," says Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "The longer we wait, the worse the problem gets." On the other hand, the more precipitously we act, the more we disrupt the economy. A coal-fired electric plant lasts 40 to 60 years; gradually replacing dirty old plants with clean new ones is much more efficient than abruptly decommissioning old plants and replacing them with -- well, with nothing, because electric plants take years to build. Besides, the best carbon-cutting technologies are still in development. "We know from experience the length of time it takes to develop and implement new technologies in the electricity sector," says Revis James of the Electric Power Research Institute. "That's about 20 to 25 years."

    This argues not for passivity, and not for delay, but for gradualism: setting up policies that will tighten the screws on greenhouse-gas emissions over the next few decades. The convenient truth about global warming, then, is that radicalism is as pointless as it is impractical. Slow-but-steady is not only the easiest approach; it is also the most effective.

    Just as conveniently, the most efficient way to get started is also the simplest, albeit not the easiest politically: tax carbon emissions. "At around $30 per ton of CO2 over a 25-year horizon, experts seem to think this is the kind of price that will encourage the kind of technologies that are necessary," says Billy Pizer, an environmental economist at Resources for the Future, a Washington think tank. That would translate into an additional 27 cents or so on a gallon of gasoline and about a 20 percent increase in residential electricity bills (more like 34 percent for industrial users). Unpleasant, but hardly radical. Perfectly do-able, in fact.

    Fortuitously, a carbon tax could also reduce the U.S. budget deficit and the geopolitical leverage of sinister "petrocracies" such as Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Policy prescriptions don't come any more convenient than that.

    Because significant warming is already baked into the cake (excuse the expression), climate change for at least the next 50 to 100 years will be a problem to be managed, not solved. Managing it will require mitigating whatever harms it causes: adaptation, in the standard parlance. This, too, turns out to be remarkably convenient. Few, if any, of the problems that climate change seems likely to exacerbate -- flooding, storms, drought, tropical disease, habitat loss, extinction -- are new or exotic. To the contrary, they are already front and center on the developmental and environmental agendas.

    Roger Pielke Jr., a University of Colorado professor of environmental studies, points out that many communities around the world are already maladapted to their climates. (Just ask New Orleans.) In the 1990s, he notes, extreme weather events caused more than 300,000 deaths; malaria currently kills between 1 million and 2.6 million people a year. Climate change will affect those problems, but on the margins. Pielke cites a study finding that the global population at risk of malaria would double by 2080 without global warming; climate change increases malaria risk by a further 7 percent.

    Climate change, then, is a reason to do more of what makes sense anyway: reduce coastal vulnerability and strengthen homes to minimize hurricane damage, improve public health and develop drugs to fight malaria, and so on. There is nothing radical about any of this. No rethinking of capitalism is required.

    Given how neatly adaptation dovetails with the sustainability agenda, and given its immense potential to relieve whatever human suffering that global warming causes, one might think environmentalists would tout it to the skies. Some do, but many seem to believe that reducing harm distracts from the real job, which is to reduce emissions.

    In a blog post last year (at gristmill.org), an environmentalist named David Roberts made the point with startling candor. "In an ideal, abstract policy debate, sure, I'd say we should boost our attention to adaptation," he wrote. "But in the current political situation, I don't want to provide any ammunition for the moral cretins who are squirming frantically to avoid policies that might impact their corporate donors."

    This is like denigrating HIV treatment and blocking condom distribution in order to discourage promiscuity. And it is every bit as callous and irresponsible. Where climate change is concerned, the truth -- and this truth really is inconvenient, or at least sad -- is that too many activists and politicians mistake panic for virtue.

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    The very model of a modern Moderator Xiahou's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Lemur
    Another fine thought: "This argues not for passivity, and not for delay, but for gradualism: setting up policies that will tighten the screws on greenhouse-gas emissions over the next few decades. The convenient truth about global warming, then, is that radicalism is as pointless as it is impractical. Slow-but-steady is not only the easiest approach; it is also the most effective."
    That strikes me as rather stupid. If our CO2 emissions are causing disastrous warming, a little baby-step cut in the growth of CO2 will have no meaningful impact at all. The only thing it would accomplish is more government regulation and a higher tax burden for no gain. On the other hand, if our CO2 emissions aren't having any meaningful climate impact, why would we muck around with new taxes and regulations?

    Half-measures seem profoundly wrong-headed to me in this circumstance- regardless of which side of the debate one is on. Of course, Lemur can spell out my extreme views on the issue- apparently he knows them better than I.
    Last edited by Xiahou; 03-12-2007 at 16:47.
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    Nobody expects the Senior Member Lemur's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Xiahou
    That strikes me as rather stupid. If our CO2 emissions are causing disastrous warming, a little baby-step cut in the growth of CO2 will have no meaningful impact at all. The only thing it would accomplish is more government regulation and a higher tax burden for no gain. On the other hand, if our CO2 emissions aren't having any meaningful climate impact, why would we muck around with new taxes and regulations?
    Your disagreement hinges on and either/or formulation that has no relation to reality or science. One does not have to believe either (a) the sky is falling, or (b) everything is hunky dory. Gradualism and moderation are usually best, so I fail to see why such a concept is "stupid."

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    The very model of a modern Moderator Xiahou's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    So it's middle of the road solutions for middle of the road problems? If global warming isn't going to be catostrophic, why worry about it? Humanity has coped with gradual climate change throughout it's history without the advantage of even a fraction of the technology that we have now. If the sky isn't falling, why take such strong steps to stop it?

    The middle path isn't always (often?) the right one. Just because there are two extreme views on global warming and what to do about it doesn't mean that we can just split the difference and find the truth- that's the "middle ground" fallacy. If it's a real problem take real steps to fix it- if it's not a real problem, we shouldn't burden ourselves with fixes for a non-existent problem. Your advocating half-measures which would be pointless under any scenario.
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    probably bored Member BDC's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    The middle path isn't always (often?) the right one. Just because there are two extreme views on global warming and what to do about it doesn't mean that we can just split the difference and find the truth- that's the "middle ground" fallacy. If it's a real problem take real steps to fix it- if it's not a real problem, we shouldn't burden ourselves with fixes for a non-existent problem. Your advocating half-measures which would be pointless under any scenario.
    Precisely. If it's not an issue, why do anything? If it's such a major issue, why sit around doing such useless little things?

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    A very, very Senior Member Adrian II's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Nice column, Lemur. The author makes a good point:

    Given how neatly adaptation dovetails with the sustainability agenda, and given its immense potential to relieve whatever human suffering that global warming causes, one might think environmentalists would tout it to the skies. Some do, but many seem to believe that reducing harm distracts from the real job, which is to reduce emissions.
    It's not the silver bullet, but yes, mitigation dovetails with sustainability, which in turn dovetails with modern views on good government. Mitigation is the way to go, and up to a point it can (and should) be peace-meal. The latest IPCC report states that no matter what we will do, global warming is going to be with us for centuries.

    And Xaihou, we are dealing with probabilities here, not hard outcomes and clear-cut causal relations.
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    Master of useless knowledge Senior Member Kitten Shooting Champion, Eskiv Champion Ironside's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Xiahou
    So it's middle of the road solutions for middle of the road problems? If global warming isn't going to be catostrophic, why worry about it? Humanity has coped with gradual climate change throughout it's history without the advantage of even a fraction of the technology that we have now. If the sky isn't falling, why take such strong steps to stop it?
    Humans cope with it in three ways, adapt, move or die... And during drastic changes the 2 last alternative is usually most common.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xiahou
    The middle path isn't always (often?) the right one. Just because there are two extreme views on global warming and what to do about it doesn't mean that we can just split the difference and find the truth- that's the "middle ground" fallacy. If it's a real problem take real steps to fix it- if it's not a real problem, we shouldn't burden ourselves with fixes for a non-existent problem. Your advocating half-measures which would be pointless under any scenario.
    Because it's better to do a damage control and reduce the problem, than to simply ignore it because you cannot truely fix it. Very few people are willing to take "real steps" to fix this problem (myself included), so the only option left outside of ignoring the problem is to make minor fixes.
    We are all aware that the senses can be deceived, the eyes fooled. But how can we be sure our senses are not being deceived at any particular time, or even all the time? Might I just be a brain in a tank somewhere, tricked all my life into believing in the events of this world by some insane computer? And does my life gain or lose meaning based on my reaction to such solipsism?

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    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironside
    Humans cope with it in three ways, adapt, move or die... And during drastic changes the 2 last alternative is usually most common.
    Well said. And the situation is made more drastic by a world population of 6bn as opposed to previous populations during climate shifts of <100 million, combined with what appears to be faster changes in world climate.
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    Come to daddy Member Geoffrey S's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Xiahou
    The middle path isn't always (often?) the right one. Just because there are two extreme views on global warming and what to do about it doesn't mean that we can just split the difference and find the truth- that's the "middle ground" fallacy. If it's a real problem take real steps to fix it- if it's not a real problem, we shouldn't burden ourselves with fixes for a non-existent problem. Your advocating half-measures which would be pointless under any scenario.
    This is not what is being argued for. The middle path is indeed not the right one in this case, but as long as it's impossible to unite everyone on any one side of the debate it's the best approach we have to even begin to make any progress. And regardless, every bit can and will help, and with time will create a solid popular basis for more decisive measures in the future.
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    A very, very Senior Member Adrian II's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Geoffrey S
    The middle path is indeed not the right one in this case, but as long as it's impossible to unite everyone on any one side of the debate it's the best approach we have to even begin to make any progress. And regardless, every bit can and will help, and with time will create a solid popular basis for more decisive measures in the future.
    Love your Dutch 'draagvlak' take.

    I beg to disagree though. Not 'every bit' will automatically help create a solid popular basis. Indeed, if the little bits turn out to have been useless or inadequate, popular support for more drastic measures will decrease.

    Mitigation should become the middle ground and later on, hopefully, the common ground for climate policy. According to the latest IPCC report, even drastic reductions in CO2 output will not significantly influence global warming trends. Regardless of the size of reductions and their desirability, they are not going to work. Or 'not very likely', to paraphrase the report.
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    Come to daddy Member Geoffrey S's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    A fair point, but one on which our views differ slightly. For the moment what is most obviously hampering useful measures against global warming is a lack of consensus, among businesses, the public as well as the politicians representing them. If it is impossible to convince everyone that greater steps must be taken the only alternative open is to work on points all can agree on and build from there.

    Certainly the risk is present of measures failing or not producing the desired effects, but working on such measures as opposed to vigorously debating stronger approaches and ultimately implementing nothing seems to me the better option; at the very least it keeps the interest in the issue going without polarising viewpoints and preventing effective action.

    And yes, 'draagvlak creëeren' was indeed the phrase I was trying to convey... I guess inburgeren has claimed yet another victim.
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    probably bored Member BDC's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    I would have thought the Dutch have the most to lose if sea levels rise, seeing as they are practically below sea level as it is.

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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Adrian II
    According to the latest IPCC report, even drastic reductions in CO2 output will not significantly influence global warming trends. Regardless of the size of reductions and their desirability, they are not going to work. Or 'not very likely', to paraphrase the report.
    That's my point. Perhaps if we jettisoned half the world's population into space and if the rest of us returned agrarian lifestyles, it might be enough of a change to impact man-made global warming (if it exists at all), but half-measures are pointless.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geoffrey S
    This is not what is being argued for. The middle path is indeed not the right one in this case, but as long as it's impossible to unite everyone on any one side of the debate it's the best approach we have to even begin to make any progress. And regardless, every bit can and will help, and with time will create a solid popular basis for more decisive measures in the future.
    In terms of impact, a 'little progress' would be no different than 'no progress'.

    To be fair to the author though, aside from this:
    Just as conveniently, the most efficient way to get started is also the simplest, albeit not the easiest politically: tax carbon emissions. "At around $30 per ton of CO2 over a 25-year horizon, experts seem to think this is the kind of price that will encourage the kind of technologies that are necessary," says Billy Pizer, an environmental economist at Resources for the Future, a Washington think tank. That would translate into an additional 27 cents or so on a gallon of gasoline and about a 20 percent increase in residential electricity bills (more like 34 percent for industrial users). Unpleasant, but hardly radical. Perfectly do-able, in fact.

    Fortuitously, a carbon tax could also reduce the U.S. budget deficit and the geopolitical leverage of sinister "petrocracies" such as Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Policy prescriptions don't come any more convenient than that.
    Most of what he says seems fairly level-headed.
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    A very, very Senior Member Adrian II's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by BDC
    I would have thought the Dutch have the most to lose if sea levels rise, seeing as they are practically below sea level as it is.
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change announced [PDF] that the Earth is definitely warming and that human emissions of greenhouse gases (principally carbon dioxide) are almost certainly an important cause.

    We have a problem. But what sort of problem?
    Hmmm. His total acception of this report strikes me as a bit off, considering how the summary was rewritten by politicians and the like.

    Just as conveniently, the most efficient way to get started is also the simplest, albeit not the easiest politically: tax carbon emissions. "At around $30 per ton of CO2 over a 25-year horizon, experts seem to think this is the kind of price that will encourage the kind of technologies that are necessary," says Billy Pizer, an environmental economist at Resources for the Future, a Washington think tank.
    Why are these necessary? If climate change isn't a crisis, and thus man-made changes won't really affect anything, why is it necessary to hurt the economy doing this contrived trading model?

    That would translate into an additional 27 cents or so on a gallon of gasoline and about a 20 percent increase in residential electricity bills (more like 34 percent for industrial users). Unpleasant, but hardly radical. Perfectly do-able, in fact.
    So, a 10% increase in the cost of transportation of most everything in the economy? That's a big increase, and 20% plus electricity increases? How can he say that's not huge? Do-able for him, perhaps, but not for businesses or the poor, or people barely getting along with gas as it is.

    It is pleasant that he's not ranting off about imminent disaster, though.

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    has a Senior Member HoreTore's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Can't really understand why people have to argue over co2 and global warming...

    I mean, if you want to see if pollution is something we have to fight against, just look out your window! See the dust layers besides the roads, the murky waters, etc etc.

    You don't have to argue about the big things, there isn't any real conclusion yet. If you want to make a stand for/against environmentalism, just take a look outside your house.
    Last edited by HoreTore; 03-13-2007 at 20:04.
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    Needs more flowers Moderator drone's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by HoreTore
    Can't really understand why people have to argue over co2 and global warming...

    I mean, if you want to see if pollution is something we have to fight against, just look out your window! See the dust layers besides the roads, the murky waters, etc etc.

    You don't have to argue about the big things, there isn't any real conclusion yet. If you want to make a stand for/against environmentalism, just take a look outside your house.
    Pollution and CO2 are not really the same thing. One of the few things Bush hasn't messed up over here is the clean air. Ironically, some say having fewer particulates in the air is one reason it's gotten warmer.
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    has a Senior Member HoreTore's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by drone
    Pollution and CO2 are not really the same thing. One of the few things Bush hasn't messed up over here is the clean air. Ironically, some say having fewer particulates in the air is one reason it's gotten warmer.
    They certainly are related. For example, to reduce CO2, you can put filters on your factory pipes. That also reduces pollution.

    But it is true what you say. And I really can't see why we have to stress about something scientists are still debating how it affects the environment, when we could instead focus on the things we KNOW destroys our environment and we see every day?

    In my opinion, the CO2-thingy is hyped way too much, and it draws attention away from things we know is bad, and it also makes people skeptical, even to "normal" pollution.
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    The very model of a modern Moderator Xiahou's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by HoreTore
    But it is true what you say. And I really can't see why we have to stress about something scientists are still debating how it affects the environment, when we could instead focus on the things we KNOW destroys our environment and we see every day?

    In my opinion, the CO2-thingy is hyped way too much, and it draws attention away from things we know is bad, and it also makes people skeptical, even to "normal" pollution.
    You've just about nailed it.
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    probably bored Member BDC's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    There isn't much 'dirty' pollution in the west anymore though. Unlike in China and India...

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    probably bored Member BDC's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    How did Quick Reply manage to double post this? Bah.
    Last edited by BDC; 03-14-2007 at 17:37.

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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by BDC
    There isn't much 'dirty' pollution in the west anymore though. Unlike in China and India...
    It isn't? Have you looked beside a road? The grass is completely filled with dust...

    The river going through the town I live was dangerous to swim in until they cleared it up about 5 years ago... And there still isn't a lot of fish in it. Acidic rain(is that the term in english?) is still a big problem....

    And of course, nuclear plants... I don't want to think about what happens if one of them blow up...
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    I think that the only true fallacy in this discussion is the one which Xiahou has duped everyone into accepting-- that the measures the author proposes are somehow a "compromise", or a "middle ground", or that they found their origin in some desire for consensus. On the contrary, what the author is proposing is that we pace ourselves, while taking deliberate steps that will not only very likely have a positive impact on the global warming issue but will have other tangible positive effects as well. It's like the difference between firing from the hip and taking a good position, careful aim, and squeezing the trigger. Just hiding behind a wall because the shooter is pretty far away and probably won't hit anything anyway isn't a good option either.

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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    I much prefer to charge head first without regards for anything but rhetoric.

    Me: "Where are we going?"
    You: "I don't know but we're getting there fast"
    Me: "Aye, good thing we are taking action"
    You: "Yep, I think it was all laid out in that movie by Al Gore"

    *machine gun opens up on us both as we suddenly come to a sad realization that we're following political rhetoric, with some selective scientific evidence*

    My Ghost: "Why didn't we know the machine gun was there?"
    Your Ghost: "Wasn't in the movie..."
    "There is a true glory and a true honor; the glory in duty done and the honor in the integrity of principle."

    "The truth is this; the march of Providence so long, that of the individual so brief, that we often only see the ebb of the advancing wave. It is history which teaches us to hope."

  25. #25
    Nobody expects the Senior Member Lemur's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Del Arroyo
    I think that the only true fallacy in this discussion is the one which Xiahou has duped everyone into accepting-- that the measures the author proposes are somehow a "compromise", or a "middle ground", or that they found their origin in some desire for consensus. On the contrary, what the author is proposing is that we pace ourselves, while taking deliberate steps that will not only very likely have a positive impact on the global warming issue but will have other tangible positive effects as well.
    Unfortunately, for some people the concept of gradualism and prudence are anathema. You are either with us or against us, that sort of thing.

  26. #26
    The very model of a modern Moderator Xiahou's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Del Arroyo
    On the contrary, what the author is proposing is that we pace ourselves, while taking deliberate steps that will not only very likely have a positive impact on the global warming issue but will have other tangible positive effects as well.
    What? Positive impact on the global warming issue? You probably missed the bit where the IPCC said nothing we could do would have any impact on global warming in the near/mid-term. That's one of the things I agree with them on.

    It's like the difference between firing from the hip and taking a good position, careful aim, and squeezing the trigger. Just hiding behind a wall because the shooter is pretty far away and probably won't hit anything anyway isn't a good option either.
    Did you get that simile from Ross Perot? Sure sounds like one of his...
    "Don't believe everything you read online."
    -Abraham Lincoln

  27. #27
    Member Member Del Arroyo's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Xiahou
    Did you get that simile from Ross Perot? Sure sounds like one of his...
    Alright smart guy, it's like the difference between running five miles and sprinting five miles. If you sprint you won't make it. What you want to do is just sit on the couch and eat cheetos because this one little run will have little to no immediate impact on your fitness.

  28. #28
    Senior Member Senior Member Fisherking's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Our current rush to do something about climate change is interesting. The heating is said to have started in 1978, before that it was cooling…(remember the new ice-age thingy)

    Climate studies are normally a measure over a 30 year period. We have been warming now for 29 years.

    It is only a guess on my part but I think we might be jumping the gun on this one.
    Also we have done a good job of reducing sulphur dioxide which is a cooling agent. Also the way we measure temperature is flawed in that we track them in Cities which tend to be warm bubbles that generate a lot of heat.

    We also know that we are at a peak in the Sun spot cycle and that it should end soon…just a guess of course but a scientific one.

    The debate seems to be heating up as to whether CO2 has any part in overall warming and requires more investigation.

    But Hay! It makes a wonderful political football, it is very polarizing and best of all the politicians can thing of lots of ways to use it to get more involved in peoples lives and implement a lot of new taxing schemes.

    I think we can wait until we actually have more than 30 years of data and look for more accurate means of collecting and collating it.

    But that is just me…


    Education: that which reveals to the wise,
    and conceals from the stupid,
    the vast limits of their knowledge.
    Mark Twain

  29. #29
    Senior Member Senior Member English assassin's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    Also the way we measure temperature is flawed in that we track them in Cities which tend to be warm bubbles that generate a lot of heat.
    Gee wizz, I bet dem scientists are feeling pretty dumb for not having thunk of that...

    A scientist yesterday

    The heating is said to have started in 1978, before that it was cooling…(remember the new ice-age thingy)
    This bit I never get. 400 years ago the height of medical science for a headache was to drill a hole in your skull. Do you refuse to take aspirin because doctors in the past had mistaken ideas about headaches?

    It was reasonable to proceed with some caution, certainly. But when everyone is telling you one thing, and, most tellingly, when the oil companies are spending big bucks under the counter to tell you the opposite, well, the time for all this on the one hand on the other hand stuff is over.

    I'm just sorry there is no chance that the PR merchants who took the oil company dollar to spread their lies aren't going to get theirs when it all goes tits up. Defend the free market: shoot a lobbyist.
    "The only thing I've gotten out of this thread is that Navaros is claiming that Satan gave Man meat. Awesome." Gorebag

  30. #30
    A very, very Senior Member Adrian II's Avatar
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    Default Re: A Sensible Article About Global Warming

    The Assassin is right, you know. Ground station measuremens have long been replaced or corrected by measurements in various layers of the atmosphere as well as a wealth of other findings from Arctic ice-layers to paleobiological research.

    If you want to know more about state of the art meteorology and climate science I suggest you read the successive IPPC reports. They are all available online and they are quite accessible if you take the time to read them thoroughly. Set apart a weekend and a bucket of coffee. Or a six-pack, whatever floats your mind. You will be surprised both by the level of sophistication of modern climate science and by the huge complexity of the subject.

    The Assassin is wrong, though, when he says time is over for the one hand and other hand thingy. It never is. He would do well to read those reports himself. The gist of them is nothing but statements about the one hand, the other hand and the best educated guess as to which hand deserves most credit under which conditions.
    Last edited by Adrian II; 03-16-2007 at 12:41.
    The bloody trouble is we are only alive when we’re half dead trying to get a paragraph right. - Paul Scott

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