Alternate history - What if? Carthage, Roman, and Battle of the Metaurus

[CBR]

I dont see how a Roman defeat would have meant the capture of Rome. There were a total of 19 legions in the Italian theater (which would be maybe180K to 200K men)and around a 20-25% of them were involved in the battle.

There should have been enough legions to quickly reinforce Nero's remaining troops, that checked Hannibals army, in case a victorious Hasdrubal marched south to join Hannibal.

Although Rome certainly felt the strain after a long war (several allies had complained that they could not send more troops just a few years earlier) Hannibal had still been more or less cornered with no hope of winning the war, while Carthage was about to lose their hold in Spain.


CBR

[Gurkhal]

But the thing is, if Hasdrubal had manage to join with Hannibal then Hannibal's forces would be heavily reinforced, and probably powerful enough to protect their allies. But most importently, the psycological impact would be great. The Romans had already suffered heavily under a single Punic army ravaging Italy. Now there would be two. I think that would have made a very great effect on everyone present. Possibly enough to make even more Italic allies of Rome jump ship. Which after all was what the entire campaign was about. Getting, or keeping Rome's Italic allies on one's own side.

The threat could even had been seen as great enough to recall Scipio to save Rome. Of course these are merly speculations and not truth set in stone.

[CBR]

Hannibal had lost Capua and Syracuse in 212 (Sicily was under full Roman control by 210 BC) and Tarentum in 209 BC. Yes there would have some kind of impact by having the two armies combined but how big an impact? The Romans had been satisfied with limiting Hannibals power and had slowly grinded him down for nearly a decade after Cannae.

Even with a stronger army Hannibal would have needed at least one major victory (Cannae like) to have any real impact on the allies of Rome. And he would still have been outnumbered by Roman forces, even if Hasdrubal had won at Metaurus and not just slipped through the net without a fight.

The Romans were more careful and experienced compared to 218-216 BC, where Hannibal had his greatest victories. What were the chances for him to get a big victory again instead of just more years of attrition? Remember that the Romans managed to keep him down in southern Italy, his brother Mago in Gaul (who invaded with a small army in 205 BC) while still preparing for Scipio to invade Africa.

Hannibal might have been able to outwit most Roman generals to prevent being forced into battle unless he had an advantage, and occasionally lashing out and hurting a Roman army by surprise, but he was still outnumbered in hostile lands against a foe who had more resources than he had.

I dont see gaining 30K men from Hasdrubal really would have changed his position that much.

If we to trust Livy he says:

[27.36]..The total military strength amounted to twenty-three legions and were thus distributed: each of the consuls had two; four were in Spain; each of the three praetors had two in Sardinia, Sicily and Gaul respectively; C. Terentius had two in Etruria; Quintus Fulvius had two in Bruttium; Q. Claudius had two in the neighbourhood of Tarentum and the Sallentine district; C. Hostilius Tubulus had one at Capua; and two were raised in the City for home defence.

That leaves 15 legions on the Italian peninsula and another 4 close by on Sicily and Sardinia. It also appears that additional forces were sent from Spain and Sicily as well as volunteer slaves were used.


CBR

[Gurkhal]

But with another ammount of reinforcements, the Roman grinding down process would almost have to start all over. As well as provide a great marginal for Hannibal to conduct operations and sustain casulties. While I do not belive that Hasdrubal WOULD change the course of the war, I do belive that his unification with Hannibal COULD have change the war.

[Sarmatian]

Romans were in pretty bad shape. It would be hard for them to raise another army. Their coffers were pretty much empty. Also, their italic "allies" could rebel after seeing another win of the carthaginians. Expecially since rome would have to recall some troops from other regions. It could have changed the course of the war, imho.

[Sarmatian]

I dont see how a Roman defeat would have meant the capture of Rome. There were a total of 19 legions in the Italian theater (which would be maybe180K to 200K men)and around a 20-25% of them were involved in the battle.

There should have been enough legions to quickly reinforce Nero's remaining troops, that checked Hannibals army, in case a victorious Hasdrubal marched south to join Hannibal.

Although Rome certainly felt the strain after a long war (several allies had complained that they could not send more troops just a few years earlier) Hannibal had still been more or less cornered with no hope of winning the war, while Carthage was about to lose their hold in Spain.


CBR

AFAIK, there were six legions under the commandof two consuls, two in rome, and another 20,000 men in brutium. That is about 10 legions.