Who will be the next superpower?

[SwordsMaster]

Bear with me on this one. While I understand there is a large american crowd here, and you might be somewhat disturbed by my predictions, try to keep it civil. This is more curiosity than political opinion.

We live in a world where the USA are THE superpower. This situation has been sustained for some 60 years (with honourable mention to a close second, USSR, who was almost there for 40). But for people who have been just sitting back and watching events without taking sides, some signs have been appearing that predict that this is about to change. I would say in the next 25 years, but of course I could be wrong. Signs of weariness and the traditional ruling class being too traditional, and the liberal one being just opposed to the traditional one, without any actual objectives per se, too much dirty laundry, internal and external dissent, an overstretched army, and way too many enemies, among others.

Assuming I am not wrong, however, and I understand that this is a very "what if" scenario, which of these would be the next superpower?

China: They appear to be implementing their "perestroika" since their first property law was passed, their foreign policy is getting more and more aggressive with recent warnings to Japan and Taiwan and a huge military exercise with Russia in 2006.

Japan: The strongest Asian economy, although they do not have nukes. Or much of an army. But if anyone anywhere was capable of building an army of robots, they would.

India: another strong economy, nukes, military constantly on high alert, in constant struggle with Pakistan, huge manpower and huge opportunities, and in addition a strong relationship with the UK and the Commonwealth.

Russia: Well, the bear always shows when you least expect it. Nukes, army, oil, gas... are almost proverbial. While it is an unlikely choice, the nation who put the first man into space is always to be counted. And they do have the experience...

Europe: The ever-expanding European block. While each president of the EU wants to be remembered for accepting new members, the EU have the manpower, the industry, and potentially an army that could be used much more effectively if their interests were more strongly centralised and directed... Opportunity, yes, but also ancient rivalries. I mean Roman Empire kind of ancient.

Venezuela: Yes, don't laugh. Chavez is a strong handed leader who has learned the Stalinist value of propaganda and maintains strong relationships with several other latin-american countries. And he just bought tanks. And planes. Lots of 'em. And he has oil. And there are many tired of the US-strong-man policies in the continent.

USA: The US can, of course produce their own "perestroika" and reinvent themselves. But if they are, now is the moment to do it.

Germany: Again, statistically, Germany have been a power for the past 300 years, and not even 2 World Wars and 50 years of split rule have not managed to cripple it decisively. One of the strongest economies in Europe, with a small yet well organised army and good relations with the west, Germany could, once again emerge. Otto von Habsburg would take the reins, of course.

Other: Specify please.

[Kralizec]

I think the most likely outcome is that in about 50 years or so, we'll have a multi-polar world. There are enough candidates vying for "great power" status.

About the EU though, I don't expect it to develop beyond a mostly economical power.

[Beirut]

We got plans.

[Whacker]

We got plans.

Not the dreaded invasion of Celine Dion's music, even worse than American beer, and poutine, eh? EH?

I vote India. China already has a huge army and nukes, but it's already on NATO's list so the amount of growth there is going to be tempered by that fact. India on the other hand has good relations and much more in common with the West. Plus they have nukes. And a huge army.

[doc_bean]

Military might is getting less and less important, and this trend will continue as more countries acquire nukes and other advanced weaponry, going to war really hasn't been very profitable since the beginning of last century, at least not a war between two 'advanced' nations.

Economic power is where it's at. I'm thinking China. Europe has potential, but we'll never be a truly united block, if only because the language and cultural barriers that remain. We won't be a superpower, but I hope it'll stay a pleasant place to live, I'm content with our position in the world.

The USA will obviously remain the most powerful state for *many* years to come, but let's try to predict the future, they might possibly get challenged, although I don't see a fall of the Roman Empire type situation, they'll simply have to share the power, or sit back and watch like the EU is doing now.

Venezuela is still a third world country, and without Chavez chaos will erupt again.

Russia has plans, but their current power is build on their stranglehold on oil and gas supplies to Europe, their is little innovation in the economy and it's mostly low tech. The wealth isn't spread at all, lots of poverty but little middle class, rampant crime rates. I don't see them become a US type superpower anytime soon, they'll remain a major player off course, being the biggest country on the earth tends to do that.

Japan, too small to be a major superpower imo, their technological achievents are impressive, but they're losing momentum, a lot of their stuff is derivative anyway (reverse engineering european/american designs and then viewing things the 'japanese' way and putting them back together better), they're economy hasn't been that heathy for the last decade or so either. Lots of competition from south east asia now (Korea mostly).

China: lots of people striving to build a better live for themselves, a strong central government with a decent army, and the ability to undertake massive projects (like building a dam) without needing the consent of the people. Lot's of people with international experience these days (if the amount of chinese people in european universities are anything to go by), tons of technically schooled people (you don't get to be a superpower without a decent technological level), coal reserves to supply them with energy, it might not be the best source, but it works and they won't run out soon afaik. An economic necessity for both the US and the EU, a major supplier for commodity goods in Africa and probably most third world countries.
They certainly have potential, the government seems to favour a somewhat gradual loosening of the communist ideals, trying to increase the (total) wealth as much as possible. They certainly seem to have plans.

EDIT: India: has the whole Kashmir thing to worry about, lacks the central govenrment structure of china, which might be good or bad, has a lot of poverty issues right now, might be a potential superpower.
Anyway, Asia seems to be where it's at .

[CBR]

The sheer size of China and its apparent consistent high growth rate makes it the best candidate IMO. As long as it keeps an eye on potiential social problems, it should be able to keep its high momentum and even surpass USA in GDP in maybe 30 years.

India is of course also a candidate because of is size but it has not shown any large growth although that could change.


CBR

[Fragony]

I dunno, heard of some civil unrest in China's wild west, and they are buying western property en masse, if they want that to be fruitfull they will have to play with the current rules. I don't think much will change, a few extra players.

[Kommodus]

I've got $1,000 riding on China. Hopefully I can cash in within the next 25 years.

As for the others:

Japan: An army of robots, no matter how good they are at serving tea, will be hard-pressed just to hold off the Chinese invasion. They may yet take over the entire gaming industry, but not the world.

India: I'm pretty sure the Chinese, unlike everyone else, are smart enough not to outsource all their tech jobs here. Deprived of that decisive advantage, India will just have to settle for being an economic powerhouse rather than the world leader.

Russia: Had their chance and blew it. They'll be lucky to fix most of their own problems.

Europe: Will continue to grow stronger until finally being overrun by the final Muslim invasion. "The final Muslim invasion" being the constant, steady influx of migrants from the Middle East who will eventually turn each European country into a Middle Eastern-style theocracy.

(Note: The above is tongue-in-cheek; don't take it too seriously.)

Venezuela: Despite immense popularity, Chavez's economy will eventually collapse under the weight of his socialist policies. (It'll take a while, though, because of all the country's oil wealth.) Perhaps a powerful South American bloc of nations could become a contender.

USA: "We're going down, down, in an earlier round... and sugar, we're going down swingin'..."

Germany: Will share the same ultimate fate as the rest of Europe. See above.

Other:

We got plans.

And I, for one, welcome our new Canuck overlords...

[lars573]

We got plans.

Shhhhhhhhh!

[Fragony]

Shhhhhhhhh!

Didn't work for the germans

[Duke Malcolm]

The Ministry of Serendipity shall come out into the open and reveal its mighty power, before annexing the entire world for Her Britannic Majesty under an Imperial World government, according to the will of Cecil Rhodes.

[KukriKhan]

25 years from now... I vote The Independent Republic of Luna, a confederation of moon bases, originally established by terra nations, driven to declare independence to prevent the rape of their environment by those terran nations, after the discovery of the fusion-ability of moondust, and the secure establishment of daily transport between Luna & Earth.

That, or whatever country/region/group first comes up with an energy source cheaper than fossil fuels.

Or finds a way to remotely disarm weapons.

[Vladimir]

I think the most likely outcome is that in about 50 years or so, we'll have a multi-polar world. There are enough candidates vying for "great power" status.

About the EU though, I don't expect it to develop beyond a mostly economical power.

The first post is the best. The situation that lead to the US/USSR bipolar world would have to repeat and I don't think the governments of the other nations would allow for the kind of growth needed for them to become THE superpower. It would have to be an emerging nation, a young one without much of a history. Nations like everything go thru a cycle of growth and I think the next power won't be in our "neighborhood". But I'm not too keen on the moon thing though .

[Somebody Else]

I read an entertaining prediction once, that the US would remain as one of the superpowers, with China and Iran being the other two.

A European superpower would be nice, but I suspect the states that would have to be components of such an affair are far too fractious.

[Husar]

But I'm not too keen on the moon thing though .

Beware of the Lunar Corporation!

[Husar]

Otto von Habsburg would take the reins, of course.

The Habsburgs are Austrians!
Now a descendant of Wilhelm I. or Bismarck would suit me, but I voted Europe because a united Europe is better than just Germany going alone again.