God, why do I have to do all the work around here?
That NYT article is a compilation of guesswork and sheer nonsense, too much for me to even bother with.
Venezuelan inflation for instance has never been as low as under Chavez. It's up from 16 percent last year. Before Chavez, Venezuelan inflation was never below 30%. In 1994 it was 70,8%, in 1996 it was 103,2%. Get the picture?
As for the state of the economy, why don't you just read the material of the Venezuelan Central Bank for yourself. Darn it, do some research for a change, stimulate your brain.
According to preliminary estimations, gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices registered a variation of 11.8% in the fourth quarter of 2006, as compared to the same period last year. This result, along with increases of 9.8%, 9.4% and 10.1% in the first three quarters, determines an annual increase of 10.3% and reaffirms the sustained, significant and wide-spread growth process of the different economic sectors and activities observed for thirteen consecutive quarters, where the average growth is 12.9%.
The dynamism of the economic activity during the fourth quarter of 2006 was again driven by the increase in consumption, investment, credit to productive sectors and a higher level of government expenditures to support social programs.
From an institutional point of view, the significant GDP growth in the quarter was mainly due to the surge of 14.0% in private sector activity, while the public sector grew 2.3%.
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
The positive performance of the economic activity in the fourth quarter was due to the booming of non petroleum activity which grew by 13.1%; whereas, gross value added (GVA) of petroleum activity decreased by -3.7%.
Petroleum activity:
Public petroleum activity increased by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, fuelled by an increase in the gross value added of crude production. Private petroleum activity, on the contrary, decreased 17.8% mainly due to preventive maintenance works in the industrial plants of some companies that process crude from Faja del Orinoco (Orinoco Oil Belt).
Non petroleum activity:
Growth in the non petroleum activity was significant, harmonious and wide-spread, especially in the manufacturing industry 12.4%, commerce 22.7 % construction 30.5%, communications 20.9% and general government services 3.6 %. This performance is associated to an increase in the employed capacity of the corporations and to a higher domestic aggregate demand, which is supported by the sustained trend towards economy monetization, employment recovery, minimum wage increase and intensification of government social programs.
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The problem is that the true issues are masked by this economic success, and Chavez is falling for his own illusion.
Chavez rule by decree is not my main worry. It is a fully constitutional power which was granted to President Andres Perez in 1974, to President Jaime Lusinchi in 1984 and to President Velasquez in 1993. The Assembly can undo any of his decrees if they want to.
Not even the scrapping of the term limit worries me, as such. What worries me is the underlying weakness of Venezuelan democracy, the lack of a viable parliamentary opposition. There is none, period. The only serious opposition is a bunch of oil millionaires, landed fascists and sick puppy generals who are hiding behind commercial radio stations.
I have said it before: the deeper problem is the lack of political organisation in Venezuela, the result of a long and, alas, not atypical evolution since Bolivarean times. It spells disaster for the long term, whether Chavez stays in power or is 'relieved' by some Washington-approved gorilla.
Chavez coalition alone consists of 26 parties, which he is now trying to unify into one Socialist Party. His heavy-handed approach is wrong and self-defeating because it causes his electorate to crumble, even among the poorest who adore his (effective) social programs. The result will be more fall-out, more confrontation, more
caciquismo instead of democracy.

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