Late last year Blair & Co rubbished an October 2006 article in The Lancet which estimated that 650,000 Iraqi civilians had died of violence since the American- and British-led invasion in March 2003. Immediately after publication, the prime minister's official spokesman said the study "was not one we believe to be anywhere near accurate". Foreign secretary Margaret Beckett said the Lancet figures were "extrapolated" and a "leap". President Bush said: "I don't consider it a credible report".
This week, the BBC reported that the government's own scientists advised ministers that the Johns Hopkins study on Iraq civilian mortality was reliable.
Scientists at the UK's Department for International Development concluded that the study's methods were "tried and tested". Indeed, the Hopkins approach would likely lead to an "underestimation of mortality". The Ministry of Defence's chief scientific advisor said the research was "robust", close to "best practice", and "balanced". He recommended "caution in publicly criticising the study". The prime minester's advisor wrote that "the survey methodology used here cannot be rubbished, it is a tried and tested way of measuring mortality in conflict zones".
From the Lancet article:
We estimate that almost 655 000 people -- 2·5% of the population in the study area -- have died in Iraq. Although such death rates might be common in times of war, the combination of a long duration and tens of millions of people affected has made this the deadliest international conflict of the 21st century, and should be of grave concern to everyone.
The opening phase of the war alone is estimated to have cost 100,000 Iraqi lives. Since the official ending of hostilities, the proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has gradually diminished, but the actual numbers have increased every year. In other words, the Iraqis have gradually taken the lead since the government has introduced rule by deathsquad and the insurgents have learned to develop and use high-explosive devices.
All in all, this is a war crime of monstrous proportions committed both by, and under the auspices of, the occupying force of the Americans and the British, aided and abetted by several governments including my own. I wonder if aynone cares, really. The number of 655,000 (give or take a few hundred mass-graves) is after all an abstract, the victims are Iraqis, we never get to see the pictures on our front pages. It's just so much blood under the bridge, isn't it?
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