BBC Claims Al Qaeda Becoming More Centralized, Focused on Britain

[Lemur]

I don't know if this is just the usual scare-mongering or what, but it's a short piece, so I thought I'd toss it on the grill. Personally, I like the idea of a more centralized Qaeda. We know how to deal with hierarchical enemies. It's the loose-knit cell structure that makes us have kittens. You know, the intelligence version of kittens. Not the cute, fluffy kind.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The evolving threat of al-Qaeda

By Gordon Corera

In recent years, the notion of al-Qaeda as a decentralised organisation - a group that inspires attacks rather than organising and planning them itself - has gained common currency.

But now senior counter-terrorist officials have told the BBC that they have seen evidence that this is no longer the case and that the threat has evolved.

It is believed that al-Qaeda has in fact regrouped in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region and now poses a more direct threat, particularly to the UK.

Its communication channels and training facilities, which were heavily disrupted after the fall of the Taleban in Afghanistan, have been rebuilt and it is once more able to recruit members, communicate internationally and direct attacks.

Officials also believe that the close connections between communities in the UK and Pakistan mean that even though al-Qaeda would also like to attack the United States and other countries, the UK is likely to be the primary target because of the volume of travel and contact between the two countries.

There were 400,000 visits by UK residents to Pakistan in 2004 and a very small number of those are thought to have involved trips to training camps linked to al-Qaeda.

New recruits are carefully selected and go through a process of indoctrination.

They go on to form organised, self-contained cells which bear some similarities in their structure to those formed by the Provisional IRA in the past.

Different individuals will have different functions, often with one person acting as an overall leader and another in charge of getting hold of weapons or bomb-making.

In addition, there will be a number of foot-soldiers.

What concerns the authorities is the ease with which those who either drop out or are arrested can be replaced by other willing recruits.

The cat and mouse game between the authorities and these groups is also becoming increasingly complex.

The cells are increasingly aware of the attempts by authorities to conduct surveillance activity and are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their attempts to evade eavesdropping.

This often involves conducting conversations in public spaces and other methods, again used by Irish Republican groups in the past.

Both the volume of activity and its increased sophistication has made officials worry that the 7/7 bombings last year may simply have been the start of what could be a prolonged campaign.

[Banquo's Ghost]

I have read similar analyses.

In one respect, this is an excellent development. It was always going to be the case that the UK would be at least a staging post because of its Pakistani (and don't forget, Afghan and Iraqi) minorities. The UK also has extensive experience of infiltrating cell-based terrorist groups - the parallel drawn with the IRA is a useful one.

The downside is that Mr Blair has bought into the current US definition of the War on Terrorism, which sees it as an overt military conflict instead of an intelligence led, covert operation. Thus there has been much less done in recruiting human sources from the key communities, and too much politicisation of the security services. The problems caused by Iraq and the hostility to that policy amongst most of the population means that it is much harder to convince people from those communities to serve.

However, like the Irish moles, they are still very susceptible to monetary influence. Unlike in Ireland, there seems to be a serious lack of understanding about motivations - witness the recent returnee from Guantanamo who has alleged he was offered options to turn, but on declining, was shopped to the Americans.

That's a ham-fisted protection racket approach that scares off more useful contacts. In Ireland, a range of subtle and not-so-subtle clues would have developed over the next few months - or he'd have been abandoned as a waste of time.

So the good news is that this development in al-Qaeda means they are easier to infiltrate and suborn - less of the freelance, unpredictable groups, and they'll be trying to operate in a theatre that knows a thing or two about terrorism. The bad news is the experienced agents are probably all on traffic duty because they didnt toe the official line and anyway, they are all pink old Etonians.

[Fragony]

Strongly disagree that this is good in a country where teachers are scared to teach about things that just might upset muslim students. So if they are there, what exactly are you going to do? You aren't going to do anything, besides inviting them for tea and strongly urging them to not explode, and even ask them what they want in return. Already gave them London as a playground, no less then your capital.

[Tribesman]

Already gave them London as a playground, no less then your capital.

Damn , and there was me thinking London was just a place for drinking and clubbing .
Definately the last time I head over there for the weekend , what with it being an Al-Qaida fundamentalst nutjob playground and all that .

Ah well I suppose thats what you get with the tube and decent buses . Thank god our government made a balls of the Luas and Dublin bus not to mention the tunnel , otherwise they might all be having a playground over in Dublin , then again the world could do with a few less jackeens
Then again perhaps a a clever ruse they could get Al-Qaida to focus on the West instead , in the hope that they would get frustrated waiting in traffic to commit their barbarism and foolishly partake of the water to slake thier thirst .

[Banquo's Ghost]

Then again perhaps a a clever ruse they could get Al-Qaida to focus on the West instead , in the hope that they would get frustrated waiting in traffic to commit their barbarism and foolishly partake of the water to slake thier thirst .

That's a top rate idea - ship bottles of Galway water over to the London bars and al-Qaeda will be easy to find...

[Tribesman]

I was half expecting you to have started a topic on it BG
A banana republic without the bananas

[KukriKhan]

Translation for the Brit Isles-speak - impaired:

Jack`een´
n. 1. A drunken, dissolute fellow

A public service announcement from your friendly neighborhood moderator

[Tribesman]

Jack`een´
n. 1. A drunken, dissolute fellow

Not quite , though it may indeed be a fitting description .
Its culchie speak for Dubliners.

[KukriKhan]

Heh. Just trying to help my fellow Yanks keep up.

edit: Added a 'c' to 'Beoming' in the thread title; been bugging me for days - Kukri