Unless if we see a drop in deaths and order in Baghdad by 2008 an anti war candidate will be elected and we will start withdrawing. When we do it will probably realiasticly result in hundreds of American deaths, a full scale civil war against the Shiite's and Sunni's. Which the Shiites will probably win because of they are the majority. I wouldn't say Genocide is unlikly based off what we see now. In fact one could argue that the secterian killings are a form of genocide with both sides targeting others based on religion.

Iranian influence in the face of U.S. withdrawal will also most certainly increase, in the very least with extensive ties to the Islamic Shitie government in Iraq. At the most invading. Turkey also would have problems with any sepreate Kurdish state that would have the potential of supporting rebel groups in their borders. In short a withdrawal of U.S. forces would be the equavillent of pulling out the keystone of a bridge. Once that's gone the rest of the bridge colaspes in disorder and anarchy.

The real question we should be asking here is if the is winnable? Or more truly, do the effects of staying outweigh the effects of the inventable destabilizations that a withdrawal would cause. The answer to that is diffcult. With our dependence on foreigen oil the U.S. we have not seen the end to U.S. meddelings in the Middle East. The raise in power of an anti american Iran could make any future wars their much more difficult. In addition we could also have to invade Iraq again if the problem is not fully worked out.

It will be an interesting six months and I hope that we have the will and the intellgence to chose the best choice. What ever that would be.

When the US army pulls out blackwater and many other mercenary companies will still be there. Pulling out will lead the deaths of many Americans employed by them. Without the US Army there, both as a physical force and a political force, Iran, Turkey will invade. It will lead to complete warlord anarchy. Britian and US have over 100,000 mercenaries iraq, pulling out will lead to the deaths of many of them.
Could you please expand on the mercenaries? I though they were outlawed by the Geneva Convention?